Can Hoffman Pull It Off in NY 23?
The congressional race in New York’s 23rd district has captured national attention. In recent weeks, GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava has been losing voter support. Democrat Bill Owens has erased a 7-point deficit from two weeks ago and taken a 4-point lead with less than two weeks to go in the special election race for the vacant 23rd District of New York, according to a new survey from the Siena Research Institute. Conservative Party candidate David Hoffman is closing the gap. According to Siena, support (as of Oct. 15) was:
Owens 33 (+5 vs. last poll, Oct. 1)
Scozzafava 29 (-6)
Hoffman 23 (+7)
Just 40% of Republicans back the GOP nominee, Assembly Member Dede Scozzafava, as 27% back the more-conservative Hoffman. Hoffman also leads among independents with 31%, while Owens draws 28% of the independent vote and Scozzafava gets 24%.
Ms. Scozzafava is by far the most liberal of the three candidates. She is proabortion, pro gay marriage and has consistently supported tax increases as a member of the New York State Assembly.
The big questions are why did state and local GOP leaders select Ms. Scozzafava in the first place, given her track record, and why do Republicans like Pete Sessions, Newt Gingrich, Eric Cantor, John Boehner and Thaddius McCotter continue to support. Why can’t the Republican leadership simply admit it made a mistake and switch its support to Hoffman.
The case for rallying around Dede Scozzafava, the liberal and nominal Republican seeking to represent New York’s conservative 23rd Congressional District, eludes us. Scozzafava was thrust imprudently into the nomination by upstate Republican grandees faced with a special election following Republican John McHugh’s leaving his seat to become secretary of the army. The Republicans once again have shot themselves in the right foot.’s history suggests that it is basically conservative; Ms. Scozzafava is basically not. Boy, is she not: Not only pro-choice and in favor of homosexual marriage — common if distasteful concessions to the secular liberals’ agenda — she also supports some of the most odious items on the Left’s wish-list, including the “card check” initiative that would put a big cudgel in the hands of Big Labor while effectively disenfranchising millions of American workers who may not desire to become Teamsters, SEIU members, or similar. She signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge to oppose tax hikes but immediately declared that she was not bound by having done so. It is no surprise that she is supported by the public-employees unions, ACORN — and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas Zúñiga. (Really.)
In spite of its having gone for Obama in 2008, the district
It may be too generous even to say that Ms. Scozzafava is a RINO — Republican In Name Only — inasmuch as she has emanated mixed signals about her commitment to remaining a Republican post-election. (Her spokesman now affirms to The Weekly Standard that Ms. Scozzafava is a “vote for John Boehner to be speaker of the House of Representatives,” if she is in office in 2011; earlier, her campaign had declined to answer that question.) It is entirely conceivable that Ms. Scozzafava will be tempted to switch to the party whose values she shares. She will be especially vulnerable to that temptation if she should face a tough primary challenge in 2010; given that Ms. Scozzafava is to the left of a great many Democratic voters, to say nothing of the typical Republican, the GOP bosses who foisted her upon the party have all but ensured that she does face such a challenge. They very well may have created the next Arlen Specter.
Recent polls by Rasmussen and Gallup indicate that a majority of Republicans believe their party’s leadership and Congressional Republicans are out of touch with the rank and file. Judging by what is happening in Upstate New York, it appears they are correct. More importantly, NY 23 is proving that conservative Republicans are sick and tired of the party’s more liberal leadership and they’re not going to take it any more.
If Hoffman wins or even outpolls Scozzafava, it should send a message to the GOP leadership.
Hat tips: Real Clear Politics and NRO.
[1]
Dede hit the trifecta: she’s dumb, ugly and liberal.
I know many of you disagree with me, but I view this as the most important race of 2009. If Hoffman wins, it will scare the GOP establishmant and RINOs everywhere sh!tless. Steele, Pete Sessions, Crist,Romney, McCain, Graham, Powell and Hutchison will all be hiding out in MFG’s basement.
[2]
I wish Hoffman would win but I just don’t see it in the cards.
[3]
FROM POLITICO—–Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) became the first Republican member of Congress to publicly support Conservative Doug Hoffman over the GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava in the upcoming New York special election.
She gave her backing to Hoffman on Laura Ingraham’s nationally-syndicated radio show this morning when Ingraham asked her thoughts about the special election.
[4]
Hoffman seems to have the mo, victory looks possible now
MOST important race…???
Good God, put down the funny cigarettes
Christie is the most important race; dual R victories in VA and NJ will send an unmistakable message to Communists in the Senate and sink HellCare definitively
[5]
Wallstreet Journal Weighs In on NY 23
[6]
Did you see HellCare Harry got 47 votes yesterday for cloture?
47!!!
We’re going to beat this thing, you just watch
[7]
I hate to disagree with you MFG (okay, so I am lying), but I view Christie’s race as the least important of the three. New Jersey is much like California (ungovernable) and whomever becomes governor will be immersed in dung up to their neck just like Schwarzenegger is in the Golden State. Do you actually think a Democratic-controlled legislature will cooperate with Moby Dick?
McDonnell can help bring Virginia back into the GOP column. Hoffman winning will deliver a message to the party elites and be an inspiration to conservatives across the country. If Christie is elected and doesn’t manage the state any better than he has managed his campaign, New Jersey will continue to be a mess (with fhe only difference being the GOP getting the blame). If you think New Jersey is going to elect any Republicans to the Senate, you must have had Absolut for lunch.
[8]
A Christie victory is a message to elected Communists everywhere:
Supporting Obama in today’s environment equals defeat
[9]
perception wise, to the dems, I think the corzine/christie race is the main one. Obama has now gone there and placed his reputation on line.
If corzine wins it is going to be cheered as a victory for Obama’s agenda.
Whether it is a liberal or conservative loser doesn’t matter to them.
[10]
If Hoffman wins or even outpolls Scozzafava, it should send a message to the GOP leadership.
~~~~~~~~~~
A bit too hopeful. Not sure if the GOP leadership have the ears to hear.
[11]
I hope Christie pulls it off; if it’s a win in VA and a loss in NJ the Communists in the press corp will spin it as “Well, the VA governorship always goes to the out party, the NJ victory is what really matters!”
Both VA and NJ blowing up in their faces will be very hard to spin
[12]
Christie is the most important race; dual R victories in VA and NJ will send an unmistakable message to Communists in the Senate and sink HellCare definitively~~~MFG
Dear MFG::
Repeat after me:
THEY DON’T GIVE A CRAP ABOUT OFF YEAR ELECTIONS, THEY HAVE WAITED GENERATIONS FOR SOCIALIZED MEDICINE THEY WON’T STOP NOW !!!
REPEAT! REPEAT! REPEAT!
[13]
MFG -
How come you consider Whitehouse a communist, while you don’t consider Snowe one (when she has almost the same voting record)?
[14]
Snowe has a ACU of 40 or 50
You cherry pick certain years to get the result you want
It’s not a fair representation of her voting record
[15]
IP
These bastards would sell their great grandchildren into sexual slavery to save their seats
I just don’t believe they’ll commit political suicide over this
We’ll see soon enough…
[16]
IP –
Apparently you and I don’t get the same “talking points” memos MFG receives from GOP headquarters every morning. UPS delivers his along with a couple packets of Kool-Aid.
[17]
Snowe lifetime rating 47.88
[18]
If I exclude data I can come up with any result I want, lifetime she’s been OK considering it’s ME we’re talking about…
[19]
IP
These bastards would sell their great grandchildren into sexual slavery to save their seats~~~MFG
Some of them have waited decades for this chance, they won’t stop now. For them, having those seats is only a means to an end. That end
is the final nail of socialized medicine, then thay can retire happay.
I wish you were correct, and as I have offered before, I would gladly do a menage a trois with helen thomas and nasty piglosi, if it would stop this thing.(on the white house steps at high noon)
[20]
We’ll see, IP
I just disagree
[21]
“Snowe has a ACU of 40 or 50″
MFG -
Snowe’s 2008 ACU score was 12. Collins was 20. The dingbat twins are far more liberal than you think.
Put down the Kool-Aid. I am not cherry picking. Open the link and hopefully it will open you eyes.
http://www.acuratings.org/2008all.htm#ME
[22]
Excluding data is dishonest
If I exclude data I can come up with any answer I want on any subject
Over a long period of time she has been at right about 50%
[23]
Christie is the most important race; dual R victories in VA and NJ will send an unmistakable message to Communists in the Senate and sink HellCare definitively — MFG
Normally I would agree MFG. But these are not normal times. Here’s the difference the NY-23 race signals.
To: Republican Leadership
From: Conservative Rank and File
Date: Today
Dear Sirs,
We assume that Hoffman will win in a squeaker. We did it to send you one message — We Own You. You know, and we know, that for the Republican party to be viable they have to have the conservative base. Yes the independents are a large body of voters. But for any candidate you slate to survive to the general election, you have to get through the primary process and we conservatives control that by and large.
We will throw our weight to Rubio over Crist for example. If we don’t see a viable Republican candidate we and the Teas will find a third alternative. We will split the vote. We have the ability to destroy your hopes for 2010.
We are tired of your platitudes. We are done with the ‘do it for the party’ gambit. Field viable right of center candidates of suffer the consequences.
Signed,
Rank and File
[24]
A FAIR assessment of Snowe would be that over many years she has voted about in the middle of the pack but has had recently a worrisome trend towards a more liberal voting record; most likely this is due to the deepening blue characteristics of her state; she is thus a marginal Republican who can only be held on some issues but not on others
There’s a word for this BC
It’s called REALITY
Comparing her to Sheldon Whitehouse is absurd, because after a 15 or 20 year career he will certainly have a lifetime ACU score of 10 if not less
Furthermore, any Mainer (what are people from ME called?) with an ACU of 90 will most certainly be thrown out on their asses post haste in the next election
[25]
What data did I exclude? I provided a direct link to the ACU website. If you trace RINO ACU scores, you’ll discover they tend to become more liberal the longer they are in congress. Just like an NFL quarterback, Snowe’s 2008 voting record is a much better predicator of what whe is likely to do in 2009 and 2010 than her 2001 record.
[26]
DD
**** sending messages
We are on the verge of having our health care system destroyed by lunatics, and this bill is on the cusp of victory because there are far too many D’s in Congress
This NY 23 is a very very aberrational race and obsessing over it obscures the main issue: get as many Democrats defeated as possible
Having said that I hope Hoffman wins…
[27]
You always say she has an ACU of 12 and don’t mention her lifetime score
[28]
DEMOCRATS are the source of our problems
D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T-S
[29]
“You always say she has an ACU of 12 and don’t mention her lifetime score.”
Gee, Bob Griese was a dgood quarterback with Denver 10 years ago. I know he’s sucked big time for the last 5 years, but let’s make him our starting QB bacause his lifetime record is better, so maybe he won’t suck. Same rationale.
I can picture you defending Whitehouse’s record if he were a RINO. “Well, he’s from Rhode Island and that’s a pretty liberal state. No one with a 90% ACU record could get elected there….”
[30]
I always say her 2008 ACU rating was 12%. I have never said her overall ACU rating was 12%. What’s the most current ACU rating? 2008!
[31]
Bob Griese played for the Dolphins in the 70’s but whatever…
I’m just not interested in “Get That Republican!!” as a blood sport
[32]
All three races — NJ, VA, & NY-23 — are important for different reasons.
VA, because it would likely turn the state back into the R column for future votes.
NY-23 because it would send a message back to the GOP heads, that they should chose more wisely, and with the conservative base’s interest in mind. Supposedly the guy who was behind Scozzofava’s selection has resigned. Remember this district race is a special election, and it will be up for grabs in 2010. If Hoffman loses he has another chance next year to run as a primary candidate, and would probably win if he is at all competitive in November, running as a 3rd party candidate.
NJ is important because it would take a senate seat from a very liberal state and put it into the hands of a moderate republican. The message it would send to congressmen/women, on the ropes in 2010, would be significant and very helpful to defeating the HC bill that has everyone on edge at the moment.
[33]
MFG,
I want to see as many D’s die politically as well. But it won’t serve us any further purposes to have the likes of Scozzafava types winning either. I am tired of being the conservative asked to sit in the back of the bus, chirpping ‘turn right, turn right’.
As to the HC situation. Look Dingy could not even get an ancillary bill passed and he had the party bloc to do it. He could not even get enough for 51 which would be required to used the nuclear option. The HC bill ain’t dead yet but a bunch of folks are going wobbly.
[34]
Democrats are the enemy
See over there?
Democrats
D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T-S
Democrats are the enemy
[35]
You IMPLY that her 2008 ACU is representative of her record, which it isn’t
[36]
DEMOCRATS are the source of our problems
D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T-S
Before thou complains of thy neighbors yard, be sure thine own yard is mowed first.
[37]
I hope Hoffman wins, but some little piss ant House seat is meaningless in the big picture
NJ plus VA wins sends a clear message to the Communists: Obama is a BIG LIABILITY, BEWARE
Plus, I think it absolutely dooms hellCare
[38]
DD
We’re holding 98% of our caucus on these votes
You’ll never get 100%
[39]
DEMOCRATS are the source of our problems
D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T-S
~~~~~~~~~~
Have to disagree. WE are the source of our probs. If the republican pols hadn’t gotten so big headed and greedy and acted like Dems…WE had the rule 4 of Clinton’s eight years, and ALL of George’s eight years. We should have done much better than we did. And we only did as well as we did cause the conservatives kicked and screamed till McCain said Build the damn fence and Meiers Wasn’t a Scotus pick, and the Dubai ports Deal DIDN’t happen, and on and on.
We have met the enemy and it’s us. (rino repubs.)
Don’t be like the O and blame everything on someone else.
[40]
Jan,
For me its NY-23, VA, NJ in that order. I hope Christie wins NJ but I don’t hold a lot of credence he will. The blasted machine politics and zombie voting will probably tip it the Dims way. NY-23 is essential not only for the ‘memo’ I posted. It shows the vulnerability of the Reps in the primaries. What if somebody like Huffington pulled an Operation Chaos on the Reps? The right of center voters sit out the general and the Reps lose across the board. VA is important for its referendum status since the state went for O in 2008.
[41]
While Snowe’s 2008 ACU score is terrible, looking at the bigger span of her career is indicative of a complete record of votes that is more moderate than her narrow 2008 record. It shows that while Snowe has been a moderate/liberal republican, she is far more conservative than those on the “other side of the aisle.”
Again, Snowe only reflects the constituency of her state, more than she does the conservative base of the party she is affiliated with. At this moment in time the GOP will not be able to get anything better in Maine than a Snowe/Collins.
Consequently, we should just accept this fact and expend energies on exchanging liberal republicans in red states for conservative ones better representing the political makeup of their districts.
[42]
Amen, Jan
[43]
Jan, you are right on the Snowe/Collins analysis don’t expect any better other than attempt to appeal to rational thought and hope some of it sticks.
[44]
Over a long period of time she has been at right about 50% MFG
Perhaps this is true,BUT this latest is for the whole enchilada. Something as monumental as soc med cannot be offset by her prior actions. Benidict arnold fought on our side~~~for awhile.Her prior ratings are meaningless if she jumps ship on this major issue AT THIS TIME.
When our balls are on the anvil, we don’t need one of our own handing them the hammer.
[45]
MFG,
Don’t expect 100%. That’s the nature of politics.
But I don’t expect the likes of McCain and Graham running around turning the RNC into a DNC car with a different paint job either.
[46]
She takes the GOP dime to get elected, at least we can expect some loyalty on this major of an issue.
[47]
I’ll bet you a dollar the Communists push this bill far left and she pulls her support for it…
[48]
drdog
I see the reasons behind your list.
Mine would be VA, NJ, and NY-23 as last. While it would be exhilerating for Hoffman to win, I see it as highly unlikely. Because of his rising numbers, though, I think Hoffman has a real viable chance of putting Scozzofara in third place, accomplishing the embarrassment that conservatives would delight in bringing upon the GOP powers-that-be. However, I also think such a scuffle in 2nd and 3rd place will only serve to give the prize to Owens who will win by a plurality.
I think we have a far better chance than NY-23 of taking the seat away from Corazine. People there are betting that Daggert’s high 3rd party numbers will dissolve once angry voters get in the voting booth and simply vote R to get a corrupt D out of office. This reasoning makes sense to me. And, winning 2 governorships, back-to-back, would send a strong message to the Democrats to watch their backs in 2010….and, like MFG, I am more interested in unearthing the dims from rooting any deeper than they already are in our way of governoring ourselves.
[49]
I’ll bet you a dollar the Communists push this bill far left and she pulls her support for it ~~~MFG…
Well if she does, I’ll even throw her in for a menage a quatro with the other two.
[50]
LOL!
[51]
What if we threw in Barbara Mikulsky?
[52]
mikulski
[53]
What if we threw in Barbara Mikulsky?
~~~MFG
Oh crap!! even I draw the line somewhere.
[54]
MFG — excluding data is not necessarily dishonest… nor is including data necessarily dishonest… you have to consider trends…
See if I told you that my average body weight on my birthday is 124 pounds wouldn’t it be important to know if am I including all ages or just my adult life. Wouldn’t you want to know things like the median (145) and mode (165) weights. See I can tell you my average weight is 124 pounds … but that is over my lifetime which includes baby/toddler/childhood years. Wouldn’t it be relevant to also tell you my current weight? Wouldn’t you want to know my high, my low, or maybe just the average for the last 5 years? After all my high weight could have been 230? So now the question is …. when I meet you for dinner… what me will show up? The 124 pounds? 145? 230?
See… there are lies… they are damn lies, and there are statistics… oh just how much does Judy weigh???? and how conservative/liberal is Snowe?
[55]
Your points are fair enough, Judy
My thinking about Snowe is that the evidence seems to point to her as a moderate Senator who is becoming more liberal as her state becomes bluer; someone who can only be held on certain votes and not on others; my point was that the totality of the evidence needs to be considered; she is not the reason for our problems; the fact that we have far too many Democrats is the problem
[56]
and once there were too many English.
And not enough patriots.
[57]
12, 28 , 36, 32, 60 33.6avg last 5 years.
[58]
1992 – NJ Perot 15.6%,
While daggett is no Perot, do not underestimate the stupidity of the NJ voters.
[59]
Jan,
Would love to see Corzine go down in flames. I just think the dead hand voters will come out of the wood work. Lived there for several years and man the Dim machine can pound the pavement in that state.
[60]
Yup. Corzine by 2%, hope I’m proved wrong.
[61]
thanks Knight…
I am all for a total destruction of the existing political parties and anything that will make that happen sooner is fine by me.
I have my fingers crossed that the GOP gets a rude awakening with Hoffman. Of course, I am back to only contributing either directly to candidates or to conservative PACS (FREDPAC … did you expect anything else?)
What amazes me is how states are turning bluer…
I had a wonderful conversation with a redstater on my flight out of DC… it is always comforting to me to spend time in red states and away from DC. (Especially after Saturday night’s dinner with the woman who thinks communism and democracy (republic) are equally good/bad forms of government.