Communist Panic
2009 November 22
Economic worst case scenario is likely to unfold
But Captain Horseshit has scheduled a Jobs Summit so I guess we’ll be OK
HT: Reuters and Phineas Gage for turning me on to James Pethokoukis’ great blog
92 Responses
leave one →
[1]
Don’t worry though low growth will be spun as a magical recovery, and decent portion of America will buy it.
[2]
I fear that KH is correct.
“Take note, the chocolate ration has been increased from 30 grams to 25 grams effective today at 1700 hours. We triumph without adversity. That is all.”
[3]
No, 2 percent growth is optimistic, and that does not reduce the unemployment rate, only 3 percent or more does, and I expect U3 to hit 11 percent or more, in 2011 not 2010, and U6 which is real unemployment will hit 20% or even 22%.
This “worst case scenario” is from the guys who said there was no risk of a recession in the first place, and also said thee stimulus would keep unemployment in the 8s.
[4]
Can’t spin 10.5% unemployment
You can try, but it won’t work
[5]
I agree with Yahoo, 11% or higher unemployment is very possible
[6]
U3 is designed to hide real unemployment because people who have been out of work for 12 months are simply ignored.
That is not an honest measure, by any means. U6 is the real number, and it was 5.5 or 6 % during the Bush boom, and is now a Second Great Depression level 18%.
We ARE in a depression, because the economy has leveled off at a horrible low level and will bounce around, unless Obama gets his agenda then it rushes down again.
We had 33% unemployment during the 30s for a brief period. We may see that again if Obama gets what he wants.
[7]
Double dip here we come
And I don’t mean ice cream cones…
[8]
Bush pushed amnesty while real unemployment was in the high 5s and low 6s.
Obama is going to push it while at 19%. Simply unreal.
[9]
Forget 10.2%. Look at the real unemployment number 17.8%…
And if they confess to 11.2% in FL and 15.2% in MI, then Lord above what is the REAL unemployment rate in THOSE states?
FL ==> 20% who knows?
MI ==>25, 28% ???
[10]
I don’t think we break 11.0 next year, we might hit it as a high mark 11\11.1, but the right downward will be slow (assuming it starts at all). Yes that means real unemployment far far higher in some states. Real unemployment in MI? Probably in the low 20’s, it’ll make the jihadi’s start to feel right at home.
[11]
RWY is right. The real number is around 17.
However, the reported gov figure that everyone follows will NOT top out at 11%. 12 to 12.5% is more likely. What incentive does any small, mid or large business have to hire given the mandates coming from Chavez Hussein, his politboro and the awfully nice compliant Republicans have in store for businesses?
[12]
No, you’re right, because people will be falling out the back end of the U3 pipe as fast as they are entering the front end.
So yes, 11% may be the low estimate for the peak. Or, depending on many factors, it could go to 14%…
But U6 will hit over 20%, and that’s an easy guess, while it may go north of 25% iif Obama gets what he wants.
Civil unrest? Only makes it worse.
We are turning into Mexico, even without amnesty.
[13]
Knight,
The Jihadi’s have jobs – killing Americans.
Exhibit A – Fort Hood.
[14]
RWY,
If we continue down this road, I may consider moving TO Mexico. As hard as it is to believe, they will have more freedoms that us if things continue to degenerate.
[15]
This gets bad enough and stays bad, even people with money saved and their homes paid off will go broke.
since electric bills are going to 900/month with cap and trade….
So, look out. Solar panels, chickens, rabbits, and bullet presses will make themselves familiar once again….
[16]
Wait till they’re being paid 100$ to plant IED’s in Detroit. Then again why would they bother with Detroit.
“We are turning into Mexico, even without amnesty.” – An interesting comment.
[17]
The only way to fight back may be to move to Mexico and change things there into the way they should be here.
[18]
If we continue down this road, I may consider moving TO Mexico.
ugh. I’d prefer Canada, or maybe the Islands, to Mexico. Mexico has potential, but the crime and drug mafia make it impossible to live in peace.
Especially as a gringo.
Maybe in an expatriate community.
I say no, we win here, or nothing else matters.
[19]
RWY,
I spend a lot of time in Canada and the people are nice but the taxes are insane and the HC is awful.
Your island thought might be a good idea but I have to warn you – Wes is planning on moving to the Bahamas.
[20]
Well if it gets bad enough maybe the US would sell off HI or the virgin islands or similar to me and I’ll create a nice little experiment the Kingdom of Hawk.
[21]
An expatriate community in Mexico is not a bad idea. In 4 or 5 years, I will have enough coin to not have to worry about other BS unless Obama takes all my wealth. I know there is a good chance that will happen especially with Mitch and the Surrendercats in the Senate.
[22]
Boy, BJGers are optimists! My bet is before this is all over we will see >15% unemployment as a stated figure. There are sections of the country already there. One of the posters to the Pethokoukis blog has it about right –
Sadly the next generations of Americans will be functionally under employed and under compensated. Technically the Gen X and Y’ers should be seeing rising labor rates for them for as a percentage of the population they are about 1/4 fewer of them than us Boomers. Yet the service demand has not flattened as yet. But thanks to bad policy vis a vis the immigration issue and off shoring the number of jobs lost is outpacing the expected labor pool for these two generations.
I am pissed.
[23]
You should be pissed. More than pissed. You should be outraged that the R’s let this all happen so easily. The only 1 with any guts is Palin.
[24]
“The only 1 with any guts is Palin.”
—
LOL, Till she does or says something similar.
[25]
and yet, sometime just before the election (either September or October) the unemployment rate will blip DOWN by .01% for ONE MONTH. And that downward blip will be hailed as the light at the end of a long tunnel!
Count on it.
The media will trumpet this with 128 point font headlines not seen since WWII ended!
I can guarantee this.
[26]
25 – JR you forgot to include the tickertape parades
[27]
How about the unemployed ex-Sailor kissing the gorgeous dame in Times Square?
[28]
JR
Look at the VA election results in 2009
Bullshit gets you so far, but no farther…
[29]
For anyone who has a lasting belief that we can’t reach 15% or higher read the BLS report.
Oh and here are the ’statistically significant’ States –
Table C. States with statistically significant unemployment rate changes
from October 2008 to October 2009, seasonally adjusted
————————————————————————-
| Rate |
|———–|———–| Over-the-year
State | October | October | rate change(p)
| 2008 | 2009(p) |
————————————————————————-
Alabama ……………………| 5.7 | 10.9 | 5.2
Alaska …………………….| 6.8 | 8.9 | 2.1
Arizona ……………………| 6.2 | 9.3 | 3.1
Arkansas …………………..| 5.4 | 7.6 | 2.2
California …………………| 8.0 | 12.5 | 4.5
Colorado …………………..| 5.3 | 6.9 | 1.6
Connecticut ………………..| 6.1 | 8.8 | 2.7
Delaware …………………..| 5.5 | 8.7 | 3.2
District of Columbia ………..| 7.7 | 11.9 | 4.2
Florida ……………………| 6.9 | 11.2 | 4.3
| | |
Georgia ……………………| 6.9 | 10.2 | 3.3
Hawaii …………………….| 4.6 | 7.2 | 2.6
Idaho ……………………..| 5.6 | 9.0 | 3.4
Illinois …………………..| 6.8 | 11.0 | 4.2
Indiana ……………………| 6.4 | 9.8 | 3.4
Iowa ………………………| 4.3 | 6.7 | 2.4
Kansas …………………….| 4.7 | 6.8 | 2.1
Kentucky …………………..| 6.9 | 11.2 | 4.3
Louisiana ………………….| 5.5 | 7.4 | 1.9
Maine ……………………..| 5.7 | 8.2 | 2.5
| | |
Maryland …………………..| 4.8 | 7.3 | 2.5
Massachusetts ………………| 5.8 | 8.9 | 3.1
Michigan …………………..| 9.1 | 15.1 | 6.0
Minnesota ………………….| 5.6 | 7.6 | 2.0
Mississippi ………………..| 7.2 | 9.8 | 2.6
Missouri …………………..| 6.5 | 9.3 | 2.8
Montana ……………………| 4.8 | 6.4 | 1.6
Nebraska …………………..| 3.6 | 4.9 | 1.3
Nevada …………………….| 7.7 | 13.0 | 5.3
New Hampshire ………………| 4.0 | 6.8 | 2.8
| | |
New Jersey …………………| 6.0 | 9.7 | 3.7
New Mexico …………………| 4.5 | 7.9 | 3.4
New York …………………..| 5.9 | 9.0 | 3.1
North Carolina ……………..| 7.0 | 11.0 | 4.0
North Dakota ……………….| 3.2 | 4.2 | 1.0
Ohio ………………………| 6.9 | 10.5 | 3.6
Oklahoma …………………..| 4.2 | 7.1 | 2.9
Oregon …………………….| 7.2 | 11.3 | 4.1
Pennsylvania ……………….| 5.8 | 8.8 | 3.0
Rhode Island ……………….| 8.8 | 12.9 | 4.1
| | |
South Carolina ……………..| 7.8 | 12.1 | 4.3
South Dakota ……………….| 3.2 | 5.0 | 1.8
Tennessee ………………….| 6.9 | 10.5 | 3.6
Texas ……………………..| 5.3 | 8.3 | 3.0
Utah ………………………| 3.5 | 6.5 | 3.0
Vermont ……………………| 4.9 | 6.5 | 1.6
Virginia …………………..| 4.3 | 6.6 | 2.3
Washington …………………| 5.9 | 9.3 | 3.4
West Virginia ………………| 4.3 | 8.5 | 4.2
Wisconsin ………………….| 4.9 | 8.4 | 3.5
Wyoming ……………………| 3.2 | 7.4 | 4.2
————————————————————————-
[30]
A good many Repub politicians are getting “religion” now. They KNOW they’re within one failed election of going the way of the Whigs.
Oddly, the Democrats are NOT worried…but should be.
If 2010 becomes now just a “Wave Election” but a TIDAL WAVE Election, then the Dems are going to absolutely eat their own!
2010 is THE key to the survival of this nation. If the Dems retain control of both (whore)Houses then they will ram through all the remaining Marxist wet-dreams. The only reason they will sloooooow down the pace during 2010 is to try and get re-elected.
IF the Repubs play their cards even reasonably well, then 2010 will indeed be historic. If…
[31]
KH and MDefl…excellent catches, both! LOL
[32]
How about the unemployed ex-Sailor kissing the gorgeous dame in Times Square?
How about Obama hung in Times Square with the crowd pouring gasoline on him?
[33]
I like it, drdog.
I think Lord Obama would do well to read up on El Duce’s final days…history DOES often repeat itself!
[34]
32 – Sorry that treat is reserved for members of the CIA under this administration, but I like the way your thinking.
[35]
p.s. to all:
I fully expect that sometime next year there is going to be another March on Washington. I intend to be there. (Mrs. Justrand will freak out when she reads this). I can only do this once…but I will do it. The last one was historic…but largely ignored. I want to be part of making THIS one a tsunami too big to ignore.
When the time comes I’ll post some notes on trying to get fellow Galt’ers, from here and other Atlas Shrugged themed sites, together in D.C.
Hold that thought.
[36]
Mary Landrieu is now CROWING about how much money she got Harry Reid to leave on her nightstand!
I don’t mind Harry Reid going whoring so much as I mind him going whoring with MY money!
[37]
They really are insane.
They are going to call our bluff, ignore the polls, and make us drag them into the street.
[38]
“Trust me, these are not the kind of numbers that the White House and congressional Democrats want to see. Goldman Sachs is now forecasting unemployment to rise all next year, peaking at 10.5 percent.”
Dont these morons realize we are alrady at 10.2 % ??????????
My guess is we peak at 12.0% next year
[39]
And I’m feeling so inclined, right now….
[40]
Well, Eph, I’d say in the 11s, but does it really matter? The real rate, U6, will hit 20%, and if Obama gets his way, go much higher than that.
[41]
Stupid Obama…
[42]
The adventures of Mitchy Poo, part 1:
“Darling, have you seen my ascot? You know how Miffy is at the club. All gentlemen must have ascots. Oh, that Miffy! What a card”.
[43]
MDefl, Mitch McConnell may not be the brightest bulb in the box, but he’s hardly the best target at this point!
Landrieu
Lincoln
Nelson
Lieberman
Try those.
[44]
Dodd and Dorgan are in trouble
Nelson D-Fl is a good target but he’s not up til 2012, and Landrieu is not up til 2014.
Nelson FL, is one of those liberal Ds who passes himself off as a moderate and the idiots buy it, and he never has to answer for his voting record.
Graham, Chiles, were the others, but they are gone.
Nelson is the last Democrat that is not seen as on the far left, although he does vote that way.
[45]
Just,
I expect that from them. If would be nice if the R minority leader would be willing to actually fight those who wish to turn us into Venezuela el-Norte.
If it is OK, I’ll continue to take shots at him. You guys keep hitting the actual Marxists.
[46]
GALLUP just came in at 48% for Obama…their lowest ever. The last three polls to be taken:
Rasmussen: 48%
Gallup: 48%
Fox: 46%
[47]
MDefl…fire away…just save a shot or two for the ones actually shooting BACK.
[48]
Cue CBS and NBC for rescue polls. D +18!
[49]
BC
The Lions gave up 24 points to CLEVELAND in THE FIRST HALF ?!?!
Good grief…
[50]
The floggings will continue until we see an improvement in attitude.
[51]
48. No kidding bro.
[52]
If it is OK, I’ll continue to take shots at him.
Only thing that’ll get you banned is deliberate and repeated lying. And even that takes many, many instances of it.
I suppose if someone posted sexually explicit stuff, like not models or cheerleaders but actual zoom lens porn, yeah that would probably do it.
But we haven’t had any of that.
So post without fear, bro. No worries. We are not quick with the ban stick….
[53]
And we have not ever banned for disagreement. Despite what others have said, heh.
[54]
MFG -
What they need to do in the NFL is what they do in European soccer and have two divisions. Every season the top 4 teams from Division 2 move up to Division1 and the bottom 4 teams in Dic.1 move down to Div.2. The Lions and Browns would permanently be Div.2.
[55]
Saints going to be 10-0
Wow
31-7
[56]
I don’t understand you people. Comrade Obama is leading our country to be the Green Technology leader in the new economy. China will be our biggest customer. We will biuld green project all over China. It will mean quite a few jobs for engineering and construction firms and manufacturers.
Obama has promised GE several no bid contracts ( what are friends for ). Barney Frank will personally provide wind power as he is full of hot air. A memorial mountain carve out, similar to Mt. Rushmore will tie together the great leaders of history. Mao, Obama, and Lennin will be the three featured leaders, their images carved into the mountain honoring their greatness.
Why take a short term view and worry about a few jobs. Obama is a visionary that makes you people look rather pedestrian by comparison.
[57]
You’re right of course S2ES
Solar powered automobiles are right around the bend…
[58]
The adventures of Mitchy Poo part Dos:
“Sarah Palin? She is nothing more than an impertinent, skunk shooting trollip who clearly does not understand her station in life and how to respect her uppers. Sweeticums, is the guest wing ready for the Rockefellers of West Virginia? They are the only citizens of West Virginia allowed on this estate, natch”.
[59]
I believe Acroso and ? are the only two that have banned from BJG so far. Correct? And that was for stinking up the place royally and being general pain in the asses rather than any particular opinions they expressed.
I myself am VERY down on the GOP these days. Just an hour ago I got a call from the NRSC and basically just hung up on them — it’s not even worth my time to express my disgust for the GOP elites to the twits they have manning the phones and dialing for dollars.
[60]
Yes, just those two, and neither one for having a contrary opinion.
[61]
COC
[62]
MDefl -
If you have noticed, our favorite trollip is already positionimg herself against the elites with her common sense conservative mantra. If you listened to her on BOR, she basically said the problems were created by Ivy League elitists and can best be solved by hard-working Americans with private sector experience and plenty of common sense.
Me thinks the GOP establishment may be underestimating the redneck snowbilly.
[63]
I guess all the illegal aliens are going to turn around, and we may have to follow them!!!!
[64]
OK FOLKS- I have the tally. IP is the winner of last night’s poetry contest, but it was also mentioned to me that no winner was declared from the previous poetry night. By all accounts RWY was on fire last time, and IP was on fire this time. SO……
IP has won Sarah’s book Going Rogue and RWY won GB’s book Arguing with idiots (which was last time’s prize left undeclared). Congrats guys! I will get those out to you this week!
[65]
prizes ? I was unaware of any prizes. Nest time, I will be sure to compete.
[66]
Al Gore emailed me, he wants a recount…
[67]
a “special” prize has been reserved for alGore. His prize can be claimed at 3:00 a.m. on Pier 39…he must come alone to claim it.
[68]
BCB,
She is one of the very few R’s with any guts. She may be the one person who can start a viable third party. I am about to give up on the R’s. They are too happy eating the crumbs fed to them by their Dem masters.
[69]
I am flattered, but cannot accept such an honor. Please find a more deserving candiate for said prize.Send it to ??????
[70]
Hey wait, does this mean I got a blue ribbon, WITHOUT throwing a Chris Cocker tantrum? (warning, language) woo!
Ok, I don’t want to win anymore (after this)
[71]
IP take the prize, bro. TLS will skunk us all next week. She is gonna be the new Mike Tyson of poetry night…
[72]
The new generation of BJG poetry all-stars:
Dog
TimV
TLS
JM
CT.
Retlaw
lurker….
[73]
Leave RWY aloooooooooooooone
[74]
Poli down?
[75]
RWY,
Does anyone even give a crap about Poli anymore?
[76]
I feel bad for him, even though he did it to himself with OL.
[77]
thanks rwy, but I win every week cuz I sit back with a couple of beers and laugh my a$$ off. best prize I could ever hope for!!
[78]
Oh no, you are blue ribbon material. Rock on.
[79]
Rock on indeed, TLS. I really loved the BJG poem.
[80]
Poems suck!!! That is why I barely compete.
[81]
Hey, RP, thanks to Tennessee for Robert Meachem, he’s really helping the Saints this year, he’s been an invaluable big play wide receiver
[82]
I knew he would do well. Peyton’s doing pretty good too.
It will be interesting to see who loses first.
I still remember the Bags on heads in NO.
[83]
Poems are teh awesome- perhaps it is you who sucks, RP.
[84]
Dear RWY:
If you ever have the audacity to post(70) another video of that transwhateveritis freak, I will come through the internet and pull your lungs out through your rectum. That freak makes me cringe,yuuuk
[85]
JMs,
When it comes to poems, I do!!!!
[86]
OK, where are you all getting the cool icon’s?
[87]
THERE ONCE WAS A PUNDIT CALLED REPUB,
BALLS INTO SLIME,
SAYS POETRY IS SOMETHING HE’D FLUB,
BUT ONE NEED NOT BE ABLE TO RHYME,
WHEN HAMMERING LEFTIST
HE DOES QUITE WELL WITH ONE ARM AND A CLUB
[88]
Dood, you’re bare-ass spanking me now? Ok, IP, I like you, bro, but not like that.
I was poking fun at myself, ok?
[89]
So I take it you don’t like Chris Cocker, lol.
He is a little sissy boy, isn’t he? I think he meant the video as a joke, ok? At least I hope so.
[90]
Dood…..Chrissy was not joking at all. He really is that big of a pansy
[91]
I’m a poet who can’t flow it,
But I gives it a try and hope nobody know it.
[92]
Thanks, IP