The Fog of Elections!

2009 November 3
by justrand

Post anything you’ve got on any of the elections here…help us cut through the fog!

65 Responses leave one →
  1. 2009 November 3 1:17 pm
    [1]
    justrand permalink

    Has anyone heard/seen anything on early exit-polling? I realize it’s early…but then by this time in 2000 CBS had already declared alGore the new President!

    anyway…I started this thread so folks stuck at work could have a place to come and check out rumors, news…whatever!

  2. 2009 November 3 1:32 pm
    [2]
    janzam permalink

    Michael Medved said he heard that the internal polling in CA-10 is a mere 2-3 points, between Harmer and Garamendi.

  3. 2009 November 3 1:35 pm
    [3]
    brucefdb permalink

    Interesting janzam. Jim Geraghty just had an interesting post on both that CA-10 race and a New Jersey update. Here is the Geraghty site link, he is making frequent updates and is usually reliable:

    http://hillaryspot.nationalreview.com/

  4. 2009 November 3 1:37 pm
    [4]
    brucefdb permalink

    In CA-10 if the Dem dosent win in double digits that is a huge turnaround in that district and good for our prospects next year. I hope that polling is correct, janzam.

  5. 2009 November 3 1:49 pm
    [5]
    mpthompson permalink

    Waiting, waiting, waiting…

  6. 2009 November 3 2:04 pm
    [6]

    There supposedly was some leak in VA showing McD ahead by 22% around noon…. could be BS and you have to factor in the rest of the day as well.

  7. 2009 November 3 2:15 pm
    [7]

    btw that was a leak from NOVA… where that sort of margin should not exist, Deeds camp quote “we’re getting killed by independents”.

  8. 2009 November 3 2:17 pm
    [8]

    btw if anyone is interested Illions is having a teleconference call at 8pm, email him for the details.
    http://www.gopusanj.com/wordpress/?p=9431

  9. 2009 November 3 2:21 pm
    [9]
    INC permalink

    Yes, Hot Air has a link to PPP
    Indies are breaking to the right.

    VA
    94% of Republicans are for Bob McDonnell to 87% of Democrats for Creigh Deeds.

    McDonnell is up 63-33 with independents.

    NY-23
    Doug Hoffman is winning 71% of the GOP vote to Bill Owens’ 67% of the Democratic vote.

    Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.

    NJ
    Chris Christie is getting 82% of the Republican vote while Jon Corzine is at 72% of the Democratic vote.

    Christie leads 52-29 with independents.

    ME
    77% of Republicans support the overturn of gay marriage while 71% of Democrats are opposed to it.

    Independents say they’ll vote for it by a 52-46 margin.

  10. 2009 November 3 2:23 pm
    [10]
    INC permalink

    Those are huge independent margins in VA, NY & NJ.

  11. 2009 November 3 2:32 pm
    [11]
    mulletover permalink

    Sounds like independents have had enough of “hope and change.”

    Come on home, brothers and sisters.

  12. 2009 November 3 2:39 pm
    [12]
    conservativetony permalink

    Boehner Regrets Backing Scozzafava in NY Race

    WASHINGTON — The House Republican leader says he regrets that he and other members of his party spent time and money supporting the GOP nominee in a special House election in upstate New York.

    HT Newsmax

    Think Boehner’s seen the light or is this wishful thinking?

  13. 2009 November 3 2:45 pm
    [13]
    mpthompson permalink

    To tell you’all the truth, I’ve been very proud of this country in the past. However, I definitely could stand to have my pride in this country reinforced tonight.

  14. 2009 November 3 2:46 pm
    [14]
    conservativetony permalink

    Check out this little gem from HHR: http://www.rslc.com/ElectionResults

    Click on either state for results

  15. 2009 November 3 2:47 pm
    [15]
    mpthompson permalink

    The House Republican leader says he regrets that he and other members of his party spent time and money supporting the GOP nominee in a special House election in upstate New York.

    Gee, do you think the captain of the Titanic had second thoughts about ignoring warnings of ice bergs?

  16. 2009 November 3 2:47 pm
    [16]
    judyt2009 permalink

    Oh JOhn… you took that ugly bitch to the prom and she dumped before you the music started… NOW .. send me back my money you stupid ass!!! I donated to take the gavel out of Pelosi’s hands.. not glue it as tight as her facelift.

  17. 2009 November 3 2:51 pm
    [17]
    mpthompson permalink

    Click on either state for results

    LOL, the results in New Jersey currently are:

    Governor
    Chris Christie 0%
    Governor Jon Corzine 100%
    Chris Daggett 0%

    Must be run by Acorn/SEIU.

  18. 2009 November 3 2:55 pm
    [18]
    conservativetony permalink

    Hey Judy

    On second thought, Johnny boy probably still doesn’t get it–we aren’t against GOP candidates, John, we’re against liberal GOP candidates. And she wasn’t nominated–she was selected.

  19. 2009 November 3 2:56 pm
    [19]
    conservativetony permalink

    MPT, I didn’t even notice the “pre-results”
    LOL

  20. 2009 November 3 3:01 pm
    [20]
    judyt2009 permalink

    BlueVirginia is blogging the news from the kool-aid drinking moonbat perspective… and nothing looks good for them… wonder if I should send over a case of cherry kool-aid?

    Yes, the rumor is that deepest of blue Arlington was exit polling McDonnell ahead… McDonnell winning (or close to even) in Arlington means exactly one thing — having a plan for transportation (McDonnell) and stating that you would raise taxes to pay for transportation (Deeds) has more of an impact on vote decision making than the R or the D. Could it be? Could NOVA wake up and vote common sense instead of skin color. Nope.. looks like the delegate in my district is going D after being R for a long time … there it is a brown versus black issue. Only trouble is that I am not sure the D candidate could bring in the DC residents to vote today like they did 12 months ago.

    Okay, the conventional wisdom from the senior citizen sect: Mother said high turnout/busy voting in our rural area north of Charlottesville… but there are many local/county races up from grabs so there is a lot of local interest. She also joked that her little check your ballot showed all Ds… I said that was prima facie evidence that dementia had set in and I could have her put away in a home. She didn’t think my retort was any funnier than the humor I found in her joke. I have nightmares that I mistakenly vote for a D. Mom quickly confessed that while on Sunday she was considering a down ticket D… she elected to send the MESSAGE and vote straight R.

    Sadly, we still have some “old south” people in the neighborhood who vote D because Abraham Lincoln was a Republican…just one of those sad facts of life… not isn’t it…

  21. 2009 November 3 3:04 pm
    [21]
    judyt2009 permalink

    o/t .. hey gang I am trying the new Obama “stimulus plan” diet… it works just like Zero’s stimulus plan, but with a twist. You measure your success by adding the pounds you lose to the pounds you didn’t gain….

    I am so pleased to report that last month I lost or didn’t gain 10,005 pounds!!!!!

  22. 2009 November 3 3:07 pm
    [22]

    via hhr

    #

    Per my sources, preliminary exits:

    Hudson: Corzine 62 Christie 32 Daggett 6
    Passaic: Christie 55 Corzine 40 Daggett 5
    Bergen: Corzine 48 Christie 46 Daggett 6
    Essex: Corzine 56 Christie 41 Daggett 4
    Mercer: Christie 53 Corzine 39 Daggett 8
    Middlesex: Christie 49 Corzine 42 Daggett 9
    Cape May: Christie 74 Corzine 24 Daggett 4

    Extrapolating, Christie appears to be doing what he needs to do. We’ll see…

    Comment by NJ Conservative — November 3, 2009 @ 5:04 pm

  23. 2009 November 3 3:10 pm
    [23]

    Twitter:
    Whoa. @NotLarrySabato: “This might be the largest margin for a Virginia Republican in the state’s history.” I presume he means McDonnell?

  24. 2009 November 3 3:12 pm
    [24]
    judyt2009 permalink

    The intereting thing about the above is that Daggett is coming in so much lower than his last standing in the polls.. which means that those who would throw their vote away on him… either… (1) stayed home = same result… or (2) changed at the last minute… which gives me hope that they held their nose and voted for Christie… (hold their nose as in refusing to vote for a Republican)…

  25. 2009 November 3 3:12 pm
    [25]
    TLS permalink

    does Boehner regret supporting her or just spending the money?

  26. 2009 November 3 3:15 pm
    [26]
    TLS permalink

    #21 ROFL!!!!!

  27. 2009 November 3 3:23 pm
    [27]

    “The intereting thing about the above is that Daggett is coming in so much lower than his last standing in the polls”

    Not really 8-11 is where he was at, and something less than that was expected as 3rd party.

  28. 2009 November 3 3:24 pm
    [28]
    MI Conservative permalink

    Good Evening Everyone!

    The discussion the other day was whether we would need some wine, champagne or a beer to make it through the night.

    Sorry, I gotta go to Lansing in the morning so it’s 7-up.

  29. 2009 November 3 3:25 pm
    [29]
    brucefdb permalink

    PolitickerNJ is reporting the North and South wards of Newark are each reporting about 4000 votes…a local Dem Rep says that should be enough for a narrow Corzine win.

  30. 2009 November 3 3:25 pm
    [30]

    HOORAY,HOORAY, IT’S ERECTION DAY,
    THE LEFTIST DITCHCARP WE WILL FILLET,
    UPON THE ANVIL OF REVENGE WE WILL SMITE THEIR BALLS,
    LET US RUN THEM FROM THEIR CONGRESSIONAL HALLS,
    THE SLEEPING GIANT WILL KEEP THEM AT BAY.

  31. 2009 November 3 3:25 pm
    [31]
    JustMary permalink

    😆 Judy

  32. 2009 November 3 3:27 pm
    [32]
    bc3b permalink

    Ben Smith of Politico:

    I caught up a buoyant Chris Christie outside his Morris County headquarters in a Parsippany office park just now, and asked him what today’s election — and the victory he’s predicting for himself — should say to President Obama.

    He said he looks forward to “working with President Obama” and that Obama “is going to have a governor of New Jersey who’s going to stand up for New Jersey.”

    “What this is all about is me and Jon Corzine. You want to read something into this, that’s for you to write,” he said.

    His prediction: “We’re winning this thing.”

    ALSO: For some more objective predictions, don’t miss Jonathan’s “Five Things to Watch,” beginning with base turnout for Corzine, or Patrick Murray’s detailed look at the factors in play.

  33. 2009 November 3 3:35 pm
    [33]
    MI Conservative permalink

    Cops called in NY 23 NY 23

  34. 2009 November 3 3:41 pm
    [34]
    drdog09 permalink

    “hope and change.” — Mullet

    Before this night is thru I hope that changes to “slaughter and neuter.”

  35. 2009 November 3 3:42 pm
    [35]

    I love this comment at HA.

    “This isn’t funny. Do you know how much carnage a tea-party grandma armed with stickers can cause? Be afraid, be very afraid.”

  36. 2009 November 3 3:42 pm
    [36]
    MI Conservative permalink

    I just read that the state officials in New Jersey say that 100,000 votes won’t be counted till morning. HUH????

  37. 2009 November 3 3:43 pm
    [37]
    MI Conservative permalink

    Does that mean that Christie will have a 99,999 lead tonight and lose by 1 in the morning?

  38. 2009 November 3 3:46 pm
    [38]
    drdog09 permalink

    MI,

    NJ has changed its election laws. They provide absentee balloting pretty much like Washington State now. I heard Pat Caddel on ‘Your World’ say that the counts are pretty damn high in places like Camden (Taught there. It looked like Dresden after the Blitz.). Ballots of absentees have to be validated to be legal. Hence the delay.

  39. 2009 November 3 3:47 pm
    [39]
    judyt2009 permalink

    Okay quick analysis of #22 – compared to 2008…difference between

    Corzane/Obama Christie/McCain

    Bergen -6.4% 0.42%

    Cape May -21.5% 19.48%

    Essex -20.0% 17.00%

    Hudson -11.3% 5.33%

    Mercer -28.9% 20.88%
    Middlesex -18.8% 9.81%

    Passaic -20.6% 15.56%

    These counties represent roughly 42% of the vote from 2008. Statewide Obama took 57.4% to McCain 42.6, but in these counties Obama was took the higher 63.9% to 36.1%.

    So the average is that Corzine is trailing Obama roughly 16% in the area where Obama took almost 64% of the vote, and Christie is outperforming McCain roughly 12.6% (all unweighted). In the unreported areas the split between Obama/McCain was 52.6% to 47.4%.

    At these numbers Corzine would have to hold over 95% of the Obama vote in the unreported areas to come out ahead.

    Okay this is all rough…and subject to interpretation.. but it does appear that these are the swing areas … it may be a happy night for Christie in New Jersey!!!

  40. 2009 November 3 3:49 pm
    [40]
    TLS permalink

    I just read that the state officials in New Jersey say that 100,000 votes won’t be counted till morning.

    Would that be the absentee ballots? From the Newsmax link I posted on the previous thread:

    “Absentee ballots become critical in every recount, and New Jersey officials are reporting a marked increase in requests for absentee ballots.

    “There has been a reported surge in absentee balloting, which might be suspicious but isn’t necessarily proof of anything,” Vadum tells Newsmax.

    Fund reports that state officials received “a flood” of more than 180,000 requests for absentee ballots.”

  41. 2009 November 3 3:52 pm
    [41]
    TLS permalink

    I went terribly wrong on that HTML, but it sure looks pretty doesn’t it?!?

  42. 2009 November 3 3:52 pm
    [42]
    judyt2009 permalink

    OR… should I say that if these numbers are correct (and my quick analysis is correct)

    it could be a big fat win for Christie!

  43. 2009 November 3 3:52 pm
    [43]
    MI Conservative permalink

    Thanks for the info.

    What you are saying is: we all should have asked for an absentee ballot in NJ. Why do I not trust the state or their system?

  44. 2009 November 3 3:56 pm
    [44]
    MI Conservative permalink

    OT- via ABC news

    Top Dems: Obama Won’t Get Health Care Bill in 2009
    By JONATHAN KARL

    Senior Congressional Democrats say reform before end of year is highly unlikely.

  45. 2009 November 3 3:59 pm
    [45]
    TLS permalink

    MiCon – why yes, because again, the Dems are on the side of justice! per that same Newsmax link:

    Fund also reported that the state’s Democratic Party is pressuring county clerks around the Garden State to downplay signature checks on absentee ballots. Without such checking, it is very difficult to detect absentee vote fraud.

  46. 2009 November 3 4:01 pm
    [46]

    If that’s the way the game is played, why doesn’t our side do the same??

  47. 2009 November 3 4:04 pm
    [47]
    MI Conservative permalink

    ip—-We’re the side of truth, justice and the American way.

    So, which is more corrupt? Chicago or New Jersey?

  48. 2009 November 3 4:04 pm
    [48]

    Of course Validated = “vote for Corzine”

  49. 2009 November 3 4:06 pm
    [49]

    Judy run those again Forrester in 2005, bottom line assuming those are accurate which they’re probably not Christie could win by a thin margin.

  50. 2009 November 3 4:14 pm
    [50]
    judyt2009 permalink

    Jon Corzine Democratic 1,224,551 53.47%
    Doug Forrester Republican 985,271 43.02%

  51. 2009 November 3 4:23 pm
    [51]
    brucefdb permalink

    As TLS indicated elsewhere, ACORN is in from Penn and NY and you can bet the voter fraud on the absentee ballots will be huge. John Fund said there may be as many as 180,000. If that is so Corzine will overcome any legitimate Christie lead.

    I saw them beat old B-1 Bob Dornan out here by showing up with crates of absentee votes from Hispanic voters many moons ago.

  52. 2009 November 3 4:24 pm
    [52]
    brucefdb permalink

    out hear? 😮

  53. 2009 November 3 4:26 pm
    [53]
    MI Conservative permalink

    New Jersey could be another Florida 2000 or Minnesota 2008.

  54. 2009 November 3 4:27 pm
    [54]
    judyt2009 permalink

    Cape May Corzine 45.2% 14,375
    Forrester 50.9% 16,179

    Bergen Corzine 55.6% 142,319
    Forrester 42.2% 108,017

    essex Corzine 72.7% 131,312
    Forrester 25.4% 45,789

    Hudson Corzine 75.4% 87,409
    Forrester 22.2% 25,769

    Mercer Corzine 57.1% 56,592
    Forrester 39.2% 38,871

    Middlesex Corzine 56.0% 107,176
    Forrester 39.2% 75,021

    Passaic Corzine 57.9% 61,803
    Forrester 38.9% 41,532

    Hudson: Corzine 62 Christie 32 Daggett 6
    Passaic: Christie 55 Corzine 40 Daggett 5
    Bergen: Corzine 48 Christie 46 Daggett 6
    Essex: Corzine 56 Christie 41 Daggett 4
    Mercer: Christie 53 Corzine 39 Daggett 8
    Middlesex: Christie 49 Corzine 42 Daggett 9
    Cape May: Christie 74 Corzine 24 Daggett 4

    Corizine down from 2005
    Hudson -13
    Passaic -2.9
    Bergen -7
    Essex -16
    Mercer -4
    Middlesex 7
    Cape May -21

    Christie Up from Forester
    Hudson +10
    Passaic +16
    Bergen + 4
    Essex +16
    Mercer +14
    Middlesex +10
    Cape May +24

    I did that quick… I have to run… these are the swing or bellweather counties… so I am still feeling good…

    It will be close.. because the Democrats are cheating, lying scum… what else can I say!!!!

  55. 2009 November 3 4:28 pm
    [55]
    brucefdb permalink

  56. 2009 November 3 4:31 pm
    [56]
    MI Conservative permalink

    It ain’t over till the fat, uummmm, lady sings.

  57. 2009 November 3 4:32 pm
    [57]
    MI Conservative permalink

    Is it true that Christie’s celebration party is being held at Dunkin’ Donuts?

  58. 2009 November 3 4:52 pm
    [58]
    justrand permalink

    been in meetings all day…I’m so glad to able to come here and get caught up!

    ya’ll ROCK!! thx

  59. 2009 November 3 4:54 pm
    [59]
    MI Conservative permalink

    I absolutely hate meeting days at work.

    Time to relax justrand!

  60. 2009 November 3 5:01 pm
    [60]
    drdog09 permalink

    Hey, when the meeting is announced changes in compensentation plan I am all ears!! Meeting still stinks but the topic is critical.

  61. 2009 November 3 5:03 pm
    [61]
    bc3b permalink

    “So, which is more corrupt? Chicago or New Jersey?”

    Which stole a Presidential election?

  62. 2009 November 3 5:06 pm
    [62]
    bc3b permalink

    “Is it true that Christie’s celebration party is being held at Dunkin’ Donuts?”

    Yes, the inaugural will be at Krispie Kreeme.

  63. 2009 November 3 5:07 pm
    [63]

    fox: may not know outcome of NJ tonight.

  64. 2009 November 3 5:08 pm
    [64]
    bc3b permalink

    I guess the GOP will need a big tent just to fit Christie in.

  65. 2009 November 3 5:21 pm
    [65]
    bc3b permalink

    “fox: may not know outcome of NJ tonight.”

    Waiting for the “graveyard shift” vote to be counted.

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