December Jobs Report: Worse than Expected
The National Bureau of Labor statistics released its December Jobs Report this morning. The results were worse than expected as employment dropped by an additional 85,000 as employers continued to trim their workforces and failed to bring new employees aboard.
More jobs were lost in December than expected; 4.2 million jobs were erased in all of 2009.
The economy lost 85,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department reported this morning, disappointing some hopeful economists who had predicted a gain or at least flat reading.
November’s number was revised to a gain of 4,000 jobs from a previously reported loss of 11,000 — the first positive turnaround since the recession began in December 2007. October went from a loss of 111,000 to a loss of 127,000 jobs.
From the Department of Labor:
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unem-
ployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statis-
tics reported today. Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and
wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.
Household Survey Data
In December, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.3 million, and the
unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, were unchanged. At the start of the re-
cession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.7 million,
and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent. (See table A-1.)
Unemployment rates for the major worker groups–adult men (10.2 percent),
adult women (8.2 percent), teenagers (27.1 percent), whites (9.0 percent),
blacks (16.2 percent), and Hispanics (12.9 percent)–showed little change in
December. The unemployment rate for Asians was 8.4 percent, not seasonally
adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27
weeks and over) continued to trend up, reaching 6.1 million. In December, 4 in
10 unemployed workers were jobless for 27 weeks or longer. (See table A-9.)
The civilian labor force participation rate fell to 64.6 percent in December.
The employment-population ratio declined to 58.2 percent. (See table A-1.)
Hat tip: MSN Money and Bureau of Labor Statistics
The jobless rate remained at 10% in December; economists had expected it to have ticked higher to 10.1%.
[1]
4.2 million people, not jobs. Americans – out of work.
Awful, just awful.
[2]
January will see an “unexpected” rise in unemployment…for which Bush will again be blamed.
[3]
Question: If we lost 85,000 jobs why did the unemployment number stay the same (10%), rather than going up?
[4]
Going down: Today’s Ras: -14 (46/54 overall).
[5]
They revised the numbers and we actually gained 4,000 jobs in November, that’s what makes this number even worse.
Also, people probably have given up looking for work, which is why the number didn’t change.
[6]
bc
One of the guys at HHR talked about an “outlier” that skewed some of the polls earlier in the week, predicting it would go down again at the end of the week. Apparently he was right!
[7]
janzam…please don’t ask questions like: “If we lost 85,000 jobs why did the unemployment number stay the same (10%), rather than going up?”
It shows a lack of faith in the Federal Government! We have ALWAYS been at war with Eurasia! I’m sure we can adjust your attitude without full Re-Education…right?
[8]
4. RAS!
- Stay away from the windows !!!
[9]
Brandon
I would imagine the number of people “giving up” would be quite high at this phase of the prolonged bad economy. However, I still don’t understand how employment numbers can stay the same when more jobs are lost.
[10]
Justrand
I am at the point in my life where I don’t believe ANYTHING the government says. It’s all fabrication and smoke and mirrors. Even a re-education camp would not work on me anymore!
[11]
Counting unemployment claims as a measure of unemployment is a way for government to obscure the real jobless numbers.
Uncounted are
> those who have given up their job search,
> those who have elected involuntary retirement
> those who have expended their eligibility for benefits
> those who are unemployed in lesser hours or in a lesser job
> those who don’t file claims because of the bull$hit.
But Obama will finish his golf game before he deals with it.
[12]
Mullet
I heard this morning if you include all the subsets of unemployment that you cited in #11 the number rose to 17.2%!
[13]
17.2%.
That will have an effect on tax receipts.
Maybe we can starve the beast.
[14]
I am unemployed, have given up looking, never was on unemployment. They are not counting stay at home moms who want to go back to work and can’t. Also, the giving up on looking thing may not be as true for those falling in that category because they may be competing for 85 other people for the same job, so they were looking, but they didn’t get the job.
[15]
Mary,
What do you do and where abouts do you live?
[16]
I’m in SoCal. I used to be an executive assistant.
[17]
I heard a 31 year old man this morning who called in on a radio program. He had just completed 9 years of being in the service — 2 tours of duty overseas as an officer.
He was a finish carpenter by trade and had been looking for work, daily, since last August. He finally got a job that was 2 hours, one way, from his home in Victorville, CA., traveling to Newport Beach every day.
He was frustrated, that with his stellar resume, he was having such a tough time finding work close to his home. He was also willing to do work other than construction.
So skilled and flexible and yet not able to find decent employment —> incredible!
[18]
all the smoke and all the mirrors regarding unemployment numbers, deficit shell-games and multiple “secret” accounting ledgers CANNOT disguise the lack of Government REVENUE (i.e.: taxes!).
If it ain’t comin’ in…and it AIN’T comin’ in…then it, well AIN’T THERE!
Of course, the Obama Regime’s “solution” to this is to RAISE TAXES…which leads to higher unemployment and (yup!) less revenue!
Something about getting blood from turnips…
[19]
“I’m in SoCal.”
I’m sooooooooooooo sorry Mary.
[20]
janzam: “I am at the point in my life where I don’t believe ANYTHING the government says.”
[21]
20.
BBBBBBBWWWWWWWWWWWWWWAHAHAHAHHAHA
BBBBBWWWWWWAHAHAHAHAHHA
BWAHAHAHAHA
[22]
6 – That was frank and he’s knows all when it comes to breaking apart RAS polling – you can find is top page posts @ rightpundits.
[23]
“Uncounted are
> those who have given up their job search,”
—
Actually in the yahoo news piece they were listed as 929,000 by dept of labor.
Who knows if they actually counted or are just guesstimating, probably at least double that number though.
[24]
#20 Words escape me….! Perhaps it’s because my neck is choking up! LOL
[25]
Bad News for Democrats in 2010
[26]
25. mullet
item #4 is most scary…
[27]
I still don’t understand how employment numbers can stay the same when more jobs are lost. — Jan
Jan, simple fact of the matter is probably as many people have joined the ‘no longer looking’ brigade. As soon as people stop showing up at the unemployment office they no longer get counted in the numbers. Once that happens little way that the govt can get stats. So if the number of people that are NLL is equal to the number of newly unemployed then the number does not change.
That is why the real number of unemployed is really higher.
[28]
27. Also, once your unemployment checks run out you are no longer counted. That is curretnly 6 months with some states having a “renew” for an additional 3 months after that.
[29]
Thanks drdog. I am muddling thru this paradox and seeing it more clearly.
[30]
He was frustrated, that with his stellar resume, he was having such a tough time finding work close to his home. He was also willing to do work other than construction.
Jan, I hope the young man realizes it is not him — it’s the damn economy and the know-nothing nincompoops in Washington that are implementing anti-growth policies out of sheer ideology and hatred.
[31]
What’s amazing to me is the markets continue to rise on what one would assume is bad news for economic recovery. I certainly can’t complain as the bull market has certainly been very beneficial for those willing to brave them in the face of such uncertainty.
My wife and I were discussing this yesterday and the theory I gave her, and this may be total BS, is that the natural position for the Dow may currently be roughly around 10,000 or so. The bubble occurred in 2007 when the Dow reached 14,000 and the current Dow level is a decline from that. What occurred in the fall of 2008 and into early 2009 was a panic induced by Wall Street to fleece the American taxpayers of trillions — everyone rushed for the doors and the market fell to an unnaturally low level. What we’ve seen for the last 9 months is a snap back from that low rather than a new bubble. If so, we’ll likely see the market flatten out or even decline modestly in the coming year as the jobless rate pulls earnings down.
However, there are certainly a lot of bears out there who believe the Dow at 10,500 is a new bubble bloated by government spending and the market may again test the lows around 6,000 or lower. That just doesn’t feel right to me. Despite the damage being inflicted on all sides, the American economy is incredibly robust and will manage to state afloat at long time even if it is taking on water. This is not to say another panic couldn’t set in again and another mad rush for the doors takes place.
I would be curious to hear what others think of the market’s strength despite the seemingly bad economic news.
[32]
mp — I think intellectually he did. But, emotionally he still had a hard time wrapping himself around the reality that no one seemed to view him valuable enough to even consider him as a hire. One of his comments was that he felt no one was even looking at his resume.
I only elaborated on this guy because his story seemed so poignant and probably not a rare event out there in the world of those looking for jobs.
[33]
Gee a year ago all we heard about was how horrible 2008 was.. 2008 Worst headline & chart … and now we find out that under Obama the loss is worst that 1945 by millions… worse than 2008 and 1982 combined… Where are the blaring headlines at how horrible Obama is… zero job creation from ZERO
[34]
Regarding your post #31 I don’t believe that this market is real. Being that I am not a market whiz my comments are more intuitive and gleaned from the thoughts of other economists who have given their predictions. But with the jobless rate either going downward or plateauing, the housing market probably readying itself for another wave of foreclosures, the commercial market less than healthy, and the dollar weakened, it’s hard to be bearish about this market.
[35]
You mean bullish of course….
[36]
Thank you yahoo. I am showing my petticoats on using the market language appropriately.
Back to the drawing board……
[37]
mpt,
There is a saying in the stock market — “Current stock prices reflect future earnings and prospects.” Which is very true in the main. What you generally don’t hear is the following — “Current stock prices reflect future earnings, expenses and prospects.” The latter being the more accurate assessment.
Now consider. Businesses see nothing but deficits. They also know that deficits trigger inflation. Inflation raises capital and input costs. To stay even with it all the capital value of a company rises. (The capital plant you bought today will cost 2x that amount 2yrs from now. So the future value of the plant is reflected in the stock.) Add the inflated capital costs, expense costs, input costs, etc that have all risen then NPV that back to today and the valuation is higher. Fact I would expect a capital expenditure binge right now but tight money and weak sales is preventing it.
[38]
Daily Show is generally not my cup of tea but this is down right Obama ripping. Of course they have the obligatory Bush slap. Enjoy.
[39]
I am showing my petticoats
heh. I guess I should have paid more attention…..
[40]
Sign of the times….
[41]
Fact I would expect a capital expenditure binge right now but tight money and weak sales is preventing it.
I would expect the same. However, for the end of a recession there are very unusual deflationary pressures this time around. Mostly tied to the unprecedented low employment numbers which prevents business from raising prices unless they have absolutely no choice (ie. to cover energy costs). With inflation and deflation in such tight balance, we shall see if Geithner and company can keep walking the tightrope. Quite frankly, it is somewhat amazing they/we haven’t tumbled off the abyss on either side yet.
Reading the MSM financial news, most concerns seem to be around inflation. Can the Feds reel in the loose monetary policies before they trigger massive inflation? Bizarrely, unemployment acting as a deflationary pressure can be seen as a good thing as it is buying the Fed more time than they otherwise would normally have to adjust monetary policy coming out of recession.
Frankly, my personal fear isn’t so much on the inflationary side of things. We’ve been there before and as a society we still have tribal knowledge of what needs to be done to reign in inflation when it happens (whether Obama ideologically can do it is another question). Even if rampant deflation is the likely scenario, it concerns me much more as we would enter uncharted territory — at least for the last 80 years. Things could get very, very bad. 30% or 40% unemployment, massive home foreclosures and business bankruptcies and eventually breadlines and Obamaville’s. Given there is such debate on what ended the Great Depression, I’m not certain we would even know what to do in such a scenario.
[42]
Oh my Lord, that is the most amazing and selfish, shameless thing I have ever seen.
Anyone who has work, should insist on paying their own debts. I can see people with out of work friends and family helping them out, but if you have a job, you need to pay your own obligations.
Bah.
[43]
Well, the deflationary pressure is due to huge numbers of jobless, massive uncertainly, unusually low expectations all around and even currency worries.
So, these are huge 10 ton elephants suppressing inflation, and that is why you have not seen inflation begin to spiral out of control.
I predict it goes like this forever, until we get the Dems tossed out. If we do, the economy will respond quickly, at which point we lurch over to the inflationary side.
[44]
I view mass deflation as unlikely because the banks are all sitting on piles of cash issued to them to cover their bad loans.
Of course, more must be printed to prop up Fannie/Freddie, FDIC, and the bailed out firms.
So, I think the requisite liquidity will exist to avoid huge deflation. The demand to avoid it, and keep people producing, well, that could be something else entirely.
[45]
drdog that daily show clip was the best laugh I’ve had all day. Thanks!
[46]
OT,
I want one of these. I would never have to paint that wall again.
Ok. How about an end around of the whole HC thing?? Well first go here. Now include MIT and John Hopkins working on diagnostic AI. Put it all together and for many simple things maybe the doc is bypassed. (with the appropriate caveats of course.) Factor in something like medical vacationing and many Americans might just give a finger to the whole ball of wax.
[47]
152? Is that all? Real men have 300 inch TVs……
[48]
Agreed, that Daily Show clip was great. I didn’t even find kicking the Bush dead horse to be that bad. Probably more people learned about Obama breaking promises in that short clip than 12 months of watching the MSM.
[49]
Sign of the times….
Is that serious? I mean really. Is that serious?
BTW, my family signed up to that service years ago. Unfortunately, they seemed to have only added one name on each of their lists. Guess who?
[50]
mpt, rwy,
4 years ago I would have agreed with both of you. All the signs were there. Only thing propping up the CPI was energy. But things have changed in those 4 years. The big one being the massive federal debt.
We may have stagflation again. Only this time it is quite possible we may see 25-30% inflation rates. When Treasury can’t borrow money its going to monetize the debt and when that happens all bets are off. Everything we have known before will be passe’ and we will be Argentina.
[51]
I was intrigued by the “sign of the times” tease. Wow! Never heard of such a thing. I would find it hard to be the recipient of such a site. But, I could sure see twenty-something year olds flocking to it!
[52]
RWY, it will be a multi screen deal then. The biggest mother glass made is 155″.
[53]
33 – You know where they are.
300 inch tv? Sources say that might be a little too big.
[54]
Well, there are a number of things that happen on the way to currency collapse.
At that point, many terms may be used and none of them matter because it’s a battle to live every day.
I agree, we are headed to Argentina status, and the not so funny thing is Argentina may beat us there. They are about to devalue again. Nothing learned the first time, I suppose.
Question? Could the rest of the world melt down so badly that the dollar survives as the last man standing?
I didn’t think so…..
[55]
RWY, it will be a multi screen deal then. The biggest mother glass made is 155″.
Everything with you has to be sooooo, fact-ish…..
[56]
Jan,
I need to borrow a cup of caution. Dims are thinking they might lose the MA seat.
[57]
Everything with you has to be sooooo, fact-ish…..
Yeah, I know. That’s why I never get seated for jury duty. Us engineers always think it is or it isn’t.
[58]
You are all over hotair and Instapundit today.
Lately, I have favored Legal Insurrection and redstate, Erick has been on a roll lately.
When I’m not looking beautiful here, of course…..
[59]
Ok follow the link at the bottom of the HA article where Ed points off to LI’s thoughts on the matter. They are pretty good too.
[60]
I don’t about about blow out but I expect him to lose by 8-12 points.
[61]
I expect him to win, or as a worst case scenario, lose by 5 or less.
[62]
Question? Could the rest of the world melt down so badly that the dollar survives as the last man standing?
Actually, I think that is likely scenario. When ever the rest of the world even hiccups look at the value of the dollar and the short term Fed rates.
[63]
As ususal, I can’t stand Moe Lane, or Neil Stevens at Redstate, or Leon, but I like Erick, and “vladimir” on energy……
The comments are not very good, and Redstate is trigger happy with the ban stick and very politically correct and “good little R party doggie”, but Erick has been on a tear, so I have been watching.
[64]
When Treasury can’t borrow money its going to monetize the debt and when that happens all bets are off.
If I’m not mistaken, the debt is already being monetized. I was talking with a friend the other day with strong opinions of such things and he said Fed was already the largest purchaser of Treasury debt. It seems they do it by 3rd party proxy — all the investment banks they bailed out so it doesn’t look as cannibalistic. I’ll have to check to see if this is true though.
[65]
Dims are thinking they might lose the MA seat.
PPP? Bah. We know how that worked out in NY-23. As much as I would love to see it happen, I’ll need more than that to get my hopes up.
[66]
That’s right, they have been monetizing all year long in 2009…….
[67]
At least $300 billion worth, perhaps more……
[68]
56. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
[69]
56. I dont think Brown will get blown out either – only by 23 points
[70]
69 – Looks like you picked you numbers out of the same hat I did.
[71]
At least $300 billion worth, perhaps more……a
When the total federal debt obligations on and off balance sheets are over $100T what’s a few B’s among friends? You guys need to ratchet your indicies by a factor of 100. B is last decades M in the federal budget lexicon.
[72]
Oh and MPT, go looking thru AIG. I believe that is the vehicle that the Fed is using.