Gallup Sees GOP Surge

2010 October 28
by bc3b

PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup’s latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year’s congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

Political Profile of Gallup Pre-Election Likely Voters, Midterm Elections, 1994-2010

The current and historical likely voter data reviewed here assume an approximately 40% turnout rate among national adults for each election, close to the typical turnout rate recorded in recent midterm years. (Gallup has also calculated the 2010 congressional vote using an assumption of higher turnout.)

Specifically, 55% of likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 14-24, 2010, polling are Republicans and independents who lean Republican. This is higher than the Republican showing in the past four midterm elections, although not too dissimilar to the 51% found in 2002. The corollary of this is that the 40% of likely voters now identifying as Democratic is the lowest such percentage of the past several midterms.

Notably, this year’s high Republican representation among likely voters stems mainly from a substantial increase in Republican-leaning independents in the likely voter pool — now at 16% — reflecting the broader shift toward the Republican Party among independents evident since 2009.

Read more.

Hat tip: Gallup Organization.

Don’t forget BJG Open Line on Election Night beginning at 7 PM Eastern Time. Invite your friends!

13 Responses leave one →
  1. 2010 October 28 6:23 am
    drdog09 permalink

    I see, so in the last 2 weeks Gallup ‘comes home’ to redeem their honor and call it straight. Too bad they and all the pollsters weren’t doing this 6 months ago.

    But, it does work in GOP’s favor. If the opposition is lulled by the bad recon by the pollsters well they don’t put as much effort into campaigning earlier.

  2. 2010 October 28 6:45 am
    MI Conservative permalink

    Rove had an interesting outlook on polls last night on Hannity. If I heard him right—-

    1. Never have Republicans had a generic lead like this, if past models and these numbers are accurate it should spell about +70 seats

    2. (Something I’ve said that Rove said.) The gallop larger and smaller turnout models may not be accurate. A larger voting model, which usually helps Dems, is inaccurate because of the high conservative/Rep interest level which means the larger the turnout the better for Republicans this time. Either models shows huge Dem losses anyway.

    IN 2004 the huge turnout really helped Bush instead of Kerry. Remember the London paper? “How can 65 million people be so dumb?”

  3. 2010 October 28 6:52 am
    bc3b permalink

    I have more confidence in Gallup than Rove.

    I don’t buy the FNC hype about Rove. Karl hasn’t been right about much since 2004 and he was barely right about that. Hannity keeps referring to Rove as the “architect.” Remember Rove not only was the “architect” of 2000 and 2004 but also the disasters that followed. Besides, Rove’s fingerprints are all over all of Bush43’s failures.

  4. 2010 October 28 6:56 am
    bc3b permalink

    Since I am a conservative before a Republican, the Gallup number that impresses me is that 48% identify themselves as conservatives. The percentage of liberals is pretty much unchanged, which means a number of moderates are moving to the right.

  5. 2010 October 28 7:09 am
    MI Conservative permalink

    I agree– I think Rove is rated to high by many people.

    And I think it has become apparent that Rove is all about Rove.

    I do think he is right in his analysis that I posted above.

    Personally I don’t think we’ve ever seen numbers, anger, or a country in such bad shape at election time and no pollster’s number can be taken as gospel this year.

    Uncharted Waters! And as Jon Stewart would basically be saying, dude, your wrong! Who ever calls a president dude? That’s real professional. Poor Obama being called dude.

  6. 2010 October 28 7:16 am
    justrand permalink

    I pray that the entusiasm translates to action…GOTV activities and VOTES!

    I also think (ok, PRAY) that some of the Democrat GOTV backfires on them. I think a lot of older Democrats are going to herded to the polls…only to vote AGAINST the Democrat machine. If they have any sense they will.

  7. 2010 October 28 7:23 am
    bc3b permalink

    Rove is a power within the GOP establishment. He realizes there is a battle for the soul of the GOP and is doing everything he can to maintain the status quo against the rank and file.

  8. 2010 October 28 7:25 am
    drdog09 permalink


    Hate to put it in such blunt terms but for voters like my parents the reality is —

    VOTE or DIE.

    (Fact I seem to dimly remember a gotv theme out of OFA like that. Odd turnabout if I am right.)

  9. 2010 October 28 7:54 am
    drdog09 permalink

    And here is a little article to test your mettle.

    A) This shows the gullibility of the press.
    B) Why is this story wrong?

  10. 2010 October 28 8:00 am

    What to expect from numbnuts during the lame duck session.

  11. 2010 October 28 8:03 am
    justrand permalink

    IP, another “secret” plan by Obama…that he dare not actually TELL the American public about…but that if the Left will just trust him, he will make it all right with THEM after he hoodwinks the rest of America.


  12. 2010 October 28 8:25 am
    MI Conservative permalink

    Don’t forget BJG Open Line on Election Night beginning at 7 PM Eastern Time. Invite your friends!

    Both of them?

  13. 2010 October 28 8:34 am

    drdog09 permalink

    And here is a little article to test your mettle.

    A) This shows the gullibility of the press.
    B) Why is this story wrong?

    Unless they have re written the laws of thermodynamics, the average temperature drop for
    most any evaporative device is about 20 degrees(F) from ambient. If the spot in africa had less than 30% humidity, and not over 65 degrees(f), you may be able to maintain that 6 degree(c) the article mentioned. Still a phony attempt to withdraw 9 lbs of shit from a 7 lb sack,methinks.

    perhaps the mutley will elaborate further.

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