But No Other Choice

2010 November 22
by drdog09

“Revealingly, Sarah Palin’s potential rivals for the 2012 nomination have not joined the party establishment in publicly criticizing her. They are afraid of crossing Palin and the 80 percent of the party that admires her. So how do they stop her? Not by feeding their contempt in blind quotes to the press — as a Romney aide did by telling Time’s Mark Halperin she isn’t ‘a serious human being.’ Not by hoping against hope that Murdoch might turn off the media oxygen that feeds both Palin’s viability and News Corporation’s bottom line. Sooner or later Palin’s opponents will instead have to man up — as Palin might say — and actually summon the courage to take her on mano-a-maverick in broad daylight.”

Source, as captured from ‘This Week’

Quite frankly, the field of possible runners need to stand down. That means Romney, Pawlenty, Huck, Newt, all of them. Here’s how Dog does the tally. —

  • Keep in mind that come convention time, by gentlemen’s agreement, the Reps convention goes first in 2012. More in a minute.
  • The killer question. “You favor govt health care that the country loathes. Explain yourself.” This ravages the Democrats and wounds Romney. Barely helps the second tier GOP runners but has positive impact for Palin considering her stance was very vocal on the matter.
  • Skirt factor. We don’t know what The Beast will do, but if she does run a primary challenge I give her even odds of beating Obama. That’s better odds than anyone else who has challenged a sitting president. Nor should the skirt factor be discounted. In a heads up Hillary – Romney fight, Romney would get slaughtered — “They’re picking on the girl! Stop it!” Sorry that is our culture. Better it be a cat fight.
  • Logistically Palin is better positioned than anyone else. One tweet and 5m people would respond. She does not require a huge party structure just an advance team to pave the way for events. The only item that the GOP could lend her a hand in is managing the FEC requirements of a campaign.
  • There is another factor in organization, time to respond. The last time Romney ran his team took days to formulate answers. The cable news cycle will have none of that. If the issue hits on Good Morning America, ya better have an answer by the time Shep Smith is on the air a 5pm.

    Romney like the rest of the establishment types have a cycle problem. They have to refactor whose constituency do I gore the least for the most gain? That takes time to develop. Palin on the other hand gets feedback from Facebook, and has a position based on public input. She ends up delivering an answer to Megan Kelly before the noon hour is over.

Only two factors seem to sway against her. High negatives and a loss of the Puma vote in a Palin – Clinton scuffle. The first, high negatives, is compared to whom? Obama? His too are high. Hillary? Her’s are only down because she is not in the spotlight. High negative numbers mean nothing till you have someone to compare it too. The latter is more of a concern. The 3-5% differential loss of PUMA’s could mean the difference in the election outcome.

Palin can’t win? Perish the thought.

Update: In an matter of completeness, here is a Quinipac poll that says I am all wet

34 Responses leave one →
  1. 2010 November 22 10:35 am
    [1]
    bc3b permalink

    Palin has to be able to take her case directly to the American people -“unfiltered” as she likes to say. I have no doubt she can do this. If the middle class actually discovers who Sarah Palin is and what she stands for, it’s over.

  2. 2010 November 22 10:37 am
    [2]
    justrand permalink

    there is a portion of the population that has been permanently turned off to Palin…for NO valid reason. But it is a fact.

    there is a portion of the population that has been permanently turned off to Obama…for VERY valid reasons. That also is a fact.

    the question is what voters are truly up for grabs in 2012? I think Palin can win the majority of them…but only IF the election is fair. I expect 2012 to be the most fraud-ridden in history. That is the other place the Republican Party COULD help. Will they?

  3. 2010 November 22 10:41 am
    [3]
    justrand permalink

    btw…I personally know a person for whom the following is true:
    Palin could come up a cure for cancer, invent cold-fusion, and put forth a plan for worldwide peace that had everyone immediately disarm leading to worldwide rainbows with unicorns frolicking beneath them…and this person would STILL not vote for her!

    Why not? [I’m not kidding, folks] QUOTE: “Because when she gave her acceptance speech at the convention she WINKED“. I am NOT kidding. I wish I was.

  4. 2010 November 22 11:00 am
    [4]
    bc3b permalink

    In the original Snow White & the Dwarfs, I don’t seem to remember Snow White having a fondness for 12 guage shotguns and assault rifles.

  5. 2010 November 22 11:02 am
    [5]
    drdog09 permalink

    BC, Palin just needs to keep hammering away at the ‘everyman’ theme. She can deliver it masterfully. She just needs more ears to hear it. Like you say, once it sinks in, yes it is over.

  6. 2010 November 22 11:08 am
    [6]
    janzam permalink

    Robert Draper was on a MTP panel yesterday morning. An article he wrote on Sarah Palin, for the NYT Magazine, was referenced. It was long, personally researched through interviews he had with Palin and trusted members of her team. I highly recommend reading it, as it gives more of an interior view of her “operation,” how Palin paces herself through the political briar patch.

    Inside Sarah Palin’s Inner Circle

    My views of Palin amazingly have stayed the same, throughout the germination of her status, from relatively unknown to her current “political rock star” image. Palin’s forthright personality, no holds barred temperament sets her apart from any candidate that might seek the position of POTUS in 2012. This elicits excitement and intrigue from her passionate base, who wants nothing more than to rock the boat of establishment politics. However, it also red flags the question, after the revolution does this candidate have the savvy and political infrastructure to put all the domestic and international pieces together in order to govern well?

    Palin’s media eccentricities of communicating through twitter and facebook, which commands so much attention and feedback from the MSM and beltway residents, is a satisfying version of David and Goliath — a fable we all love. But, how does a leader, who feeds off her gut more than anything else, build coalitions around the world, let alone here at home on such isolated instincts? These are no longer the days of Teddy Roosevelt, where America was still bathing in the glow of frontier days. We are now in a nuclear world, filled with hair-trigger terrorists, a country divided with those wanting a nanny govt and those less govt. — the complexities have only compounded themselves. And, Palin’s God-given gift of shaking things up is only one variable needed when looking at Presidential timber. What about her ability to stay the course, mend fences, skillfully negotiate, get along with enemies and those she doesn’t trust. A President’s circle of advisors is much larger than simply a mate like Todd. And, Palin’s tenure in AK, although impressive, is a political diorama on a much smaller scale than that of being POTUS, and consequently leader of the free world.

    For me, more qualities have to be addressed about Palin and her abilities, when putting her up as possible presidential material. Liking someone, admiring their feistiness and means of communicating to a nation other than through a biased MSM is not enough for me to say, “they are the one,” yet. The dems did that with Obama, and we all have seen how well that worked out, haven’t we!

  7. 2010 November 22 11:11 am
    [7]
    bc3b permalink

    Know who I think one of those advising Sarah Palin is? Thomas Sowell; he is a big Palin fan.

  8. 2010 November 22 11:12 am
    [8]
    drdog09 permalink

    4, That was the Liberal version of the story that came out of Hollyweird.

    The conservative version had shotguns, AR-15s, Halibut, Salmon and an occasional moose. The seven dwarf were really beefcake but the Libs need an anti-male message in their version. Oh and the apple? Actually that is the DREAM Act in our version.

  9. 2010 November 22 11:29 am
    [9]

    Non of the above for the GOP. You can even toss Thune and Daniels.

    It’s Palin, a wild card, or bust for 2012

    As DeMint said…

    YOU CANT BE A FISCAL CONSERVATIVE WITHOUT BEING A SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE

  10. 2010 November 22 11:47 am
    [10]
    beej permalink

    If not Palin, then who?

    I agree, I don’t want to let emotions sweep her into the office, which is what I perceive the left did with Obama.

    But really, with ANY presidential candidate, what are we doing? We can vet them six ways to Sunday but really won’t know their mettle till they are faced with fire. There isn’t much left to find out about Palin BUT that, since the msm and every other whacko is out to expose everything in the Palin’s life. Really, what’s left except what can only be found out when one is actually in the job?

    We didn’t really know what W would be like until 9/11, and I think he handled things pretty well. Better than Obama did with the flu outbreak, with the oil leak, with the many vacations…point being, even with W being a two term governor, we didn’t know his strength till he got there.

    We knew with the O because we knew enough of his philosophies, and enough of his background, but the msm and others whitewashed his background.

    I think Sarah will be tough as nails.

  11. 2010 November 22 11:55 am
    [11]
    janzam permalink

    bc

    Sowell would be an excellent advisor. But, being a fan and being a part of the inner circle are two different locations.

    Ironically, Palin is somewhat the conservative version of the left’s Jerry Brown. Brown has always led a very individualistic life style. He never bothered to heed criticism, from either the right or the left. He simply did things and lived the way he thought was best. He has often said he made his decisions from the gut, too.

    For Sarah, her lifestyle is grizzy bears, hunting, depend on yourself in the wide open spaces type. For Brown it was zen, austerity, simple, non-flamboyant, choosing a one bedroom apt. over living in the governor’s mansion type. He smoked weed, she filleted moose. Hence he was called Governor “Moonbeam,” by the right. And, I’m sure there are those on the left who refer to Palin as Governor “Moonbat.”

    Brown is also similar to Sarah in that he shuns entourages and having people around him as consultants. His most recent campaign originated in an sparsely furnished/equipped warehouse. His main consultant is his liberal lawyer wife. The more I think about these two, Palin/Brown the more awesome are the similaries in their temperament and conduct. Mainly it’s their ideology which is at loggerheads.

    When Brown comes into office people are concerned about not only what his “plan” will be to tackle CA’s deficit problems, but who he will select to have around him too, as he virtually has no staff! These unknowns are the same for Palin, except they arise in conservative circles, whereas Brown’s are in the liberal left ones.

  12. 2010 November 22 12:01 pm
    [12]
    janzam permalink

    beej

    Your comment about not wanting emotions to sweep Palin into office is a short way of saying what is the basis of my concerns. I also find it troubling when people see a candidate in such a “perfect” light. When fans don’t balance their views of a possible candidate with seeing and citing their weaknesses as well as their strengths, something is wrong. I bring up Obama, because that is exactly what his fans of change did when they blindly voted for him. Don’t say the same thing can’t happen to the right, because it can.

  13. 2010 November 22 12:08 pm
    [13]
    bc3b permalink

    OT – Good News. McCain To Oppose “Dream Act”

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/253703/mccain-and-dream-act-katrina-trinko

  14. 2010 November 22 12:11 pm
    [14]
    bc3b permalink

    Janzam –

    Comparing Palin and Moonbeam? I think you have totally flipped out. I guess living in the land of “fruits and nuts” too long takes its toll.

  15. 2010 November 22 12:19 pm
    [15]
    janzam permalink

    If not Palin, then who? —-> beej

    According to yesterday’s Washington Post article it could be one of four dark horse possibilities:

    1) Rick Santorum
    2) Mike Pence
    3) Scott Brown
    4) Marco Rubio

    Disclaimer: The only two I think might be possibilities are 2 & 4. Rubio is probably way too soon on the political scene. However, I think he has a strong VP if not POTUS possibilities in his future. It remains to be seen, though, whether that future is near or far.

    Republican’s ‘2012 dark horse candidate still has no name

  16. 2010 November 22 12:26 pm
    [16]
    janzam permalink

    bc

    There is myopia on your part, bc. Their temperament is very similar. They merely have different politics.

    The comparison was made excluding the component of liking one over the other, as I do. I’ve always supported Palin and have voted against Brown. But, when I was thinking about the non-conformist traits they both have, it was striking. And, because of this they are both very polarizing figures.

    So, in this context, if you get enough conservatives together, have a lousy democratic candidate as your opponent, then perhaps Sarah could win!

  17. 2010 November 22 12:28 pm
    [17]

    If its Scott Brown, I’ll vote foe Obama

    IF NOT PALIN THEN WHO ??????????????????????????????

  18. 2010 November 22 12:29 pm
    [18]

    Notice the folks who cant support Palin have no picks of their own?

    hhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmm

  19. 2010 November 22 12:31 pm
    [19]
    janzam permalink

    BTW, bc, did you read post #11 any further than the part where I said Brown and Palin were a lot alike? Just wondering, as the explanation was right there.

  20. 2010 November 22 12:39 pm
    [20]
    justrand permalink

    I do NOT expect a President to have all the answers…I loved Reagan and he certainly didn’t.

    What they MUST have for me (and which Obama has NONE of):
    – Trustworthiness…whether I like what they say or do or not, I have to trust that they have the best interests of America at heart
    – Good judgement…the ability to tell bullshit (no matter how much gold paint is on it) from truth (no matter how ugly it may be)
    – Clarity in speech…I am soooooooooo tired of Obama-types who speak in ambiguous sentences just so they have “plausible deniability”
    – a belief in and reliance on the Constitution!!!
    – A stated and believeable desire to put America FIRST!!!

    Those 5 (there are others, I’m sure) Sarah has in abundance! Obama, as stated, has NONE of them!!

  21. 2010 November 22 1:01 pm
    [21]
    TLS permalink

    3) Scott Brown
    4) Marco Rubio

    I seriously doubt that any of those who were fooled by Obama and came to their senses would ever vote for another 143 day veteran of the U.S. Senate.

  22. 2010 November 22 1:27 pm
    [22]
    bc3b permalink

    Rick Santorum: I like him but when you can’t get reelected to the Senate …. So boring he makes John “My Friends” McCain look like Mr. Excitement
    Mike Pence: I like him better than Santorum, but no one has moved from the House to the “Big House” in more than 150 years
    Scott Brown: Other than getting elected in a very liberal state and giving a cool acceptance speech, what has Scott Brown accomplished? Instant third party if Brown is nominated. California and Massachusetts do not represent the majority of Americans
    Marco Rubio: Highest elected office in which he has actually served is state legislature. Looks good, but let’s make sure he is the real thing.

  23. 2010 November 22 1:35 pm
    [23]
    janzam permalink

    Good analysis in #22. I agree with all your points. I especially want to highlight your last one, about Rubio. He is one to watch to be sure he is the real thing. If it pans out, he has so much to offer, especially with his Cuban background, which demographically might attract the growing voting hispanic population. Elections are about a great many things, including the numbers!

    Another popular politician, at the moment, is Chris Christie. Some of the youtube clips on him have been great. He is confrontational in a way that is strong and gets things done. He also has a wry sense of humor that softens the blows he gives to the unions that milk his state. I love the guy! If only CA had someone like him.

  24. 2010 November 22 2:22 pm
    [24]

    22 IF NOT PALIN THEN WHO ????????????????

  25. 2010 November 22 2:23 pm
    [25]
    judyt2009 permalink

    I think the GOP needs to nominate a governor who served at least 2 terms in a state that is financially solvent, well-respected, and scandal free.

    I want Palin to stay the ombudsman for the American people and then maybe oversee the Department of Energy with the goal to obtain US energy independence within 10 years.

    I say NO to Newt, Huck, I am not a Mitt fan — and Mass care is too much of Obamacare. Haley Barbour is the only one that comes close in my mind… and I the slow talking southern white man against Obama may present a problem. He has been the excellent governor… but of a small southern state.

    Mike Pence is also a good choice.

    I like Palin and I wish I could feel 100% about her running for POTUS at this point in time… but after the failure of Obama … well the argument would be that now Obama has 4 years of experience of being POTUS so why risk 4 years on someone with no experience such as where Obama was when the ONE was pushed into office.

    Frankly I think 2011 will be so depressing for Obama that he will decide we don’t deserve for him to waste his time with us any longer and he will go on to run for the UN Secretary General where his first act will be to move for his life time appointment and expansion of UN powers to take over all member state governments.

  26. 2010 November 22 2:27 pm
    [26]
    bc3b permalink

    Sorry Jan but I really don’t see any similarities between Palin and Moonbeam. She is very outgoing, moonbeam seems reclusive. She is self-made; his father was governor. She left Alaska with over a billion additional dollars in the state’s treasury, he left the state bankrupt. Palin is flamboyant, Moonbeam is austere. Neither used the governor’s mansion much – Palin because she hates Juneau, Moonbeam because he’s austere. Sarah has Todd; Moonbeam had Linda Ronstadt, who is bigger than a double wide.

    That was then: http://thebroadroom.net/images/josephine/2009_q3/linda_ronstadt.jpg

    This is now:
    http://www.contactmusic.com/pics/lb/arts_advocacy_day_310309/linda_ronstadt_5270996.jpg

    Even after seven pregnancies (5 kids and 2 miscarriages), Sarah seems to be stading the test of time better than Linda.

  27. 2010 November 22 4:25 pm
    [27]
    janzam permalink

    bc

    The similaries I was comparing Palin to Jerry Brown are more of style than substance. It revolves more around the similarities of the non-conformist patterns shared which they have staked their political careers on. They both are extremely stubborn in following their own instincts, despite any misgivings of the public or fringe advisors. They also both have small cadres of such advisors. It’s more a similarity in the “tone” of how they present themselves to the public; not being led around by any conventional political wisdom, but instead listening to the voice in their own head — albeit, her’s is a conservative one and his is left of liberal. Also he is considered an “odd ball” by the establishment left, just as much as she has eyes rolled around at her in the establishment right.

    BTW, Linda Ronstadt is ancient history with Brown. His wife is a bright Ivy League attorney, who is as much a confident to Brown as Todd is to Palin. Both Palin and Brown depend heavily on their respective spouses for support and advice.

  28. 2010 November 22 4:32 pm
    [28]
    janzam permalink

    Introducing you to Mrs. Moonbeam, Anne Gust

    Brown’s wife actually does not seem like a slouch. Maybe she will balance him out more, this time around as governor of CA.

  29. 2010 November 23 8:38 am
    [29]
    beej permalink

    Don’t say the same thing can’t happen to the right, because it can.
    ~~~~~~~~~
    I agree, and don’t want it to happen. The thing is, and this is a big thing—she’s been vetted through the ying yang. I don’t think there is much left we don’t know about how she thinks, how she would handle situations…By the time 2012 comes around, she will have been fully on the scene and ‘out there’ for all to see for 4 years. She will have been there, done that, as much as anyone else who will be up for President.

    By the time it’s time to put up or shut up, the average Joe will know if she can do it or not. I also don’t think the wave of emotion you see for Sarah is the same adulation you saw for Obama. I don’t see it as blind adoration, but a deep appreciation that FINALLY someone out there sees life in a common sense light. Someone who finally will call a spade a spade and who isn’t afraid of what the machine can do against her—who will do what is needed to get the job done.

    Her role politically may be doing exactly what she does now, and not as president. But so far, and time really is running short, I don’t see many options. I hate the reruns from 2008. I love Pence, but don’t see him lighting any presidential fires. Santorum was mentioned, but I don’t see him with a presidential mantel. My preference, in all honesty, would be Bobby Jindal, whom I believe has the cajones to do it from what I’ve seen as governor. WChris Christy from NJ (that is his name, right? Senior moment..)also seems to carry the same kind of fire as Palin, but has repeatedly and adamantly said NO when questioned about the job.

    I think Palin, in her tweeting and facebooking, along with her other creative ways of putting herself out there, going around the talking heads, can think outside the box. I don’t know if she will be the first female president, but we could (and certainly have in the past) do far worse.

    I saw Regan in an old movie with I think Betty Grable over the weekend. I could see, in that movie. I could see why some people could not imagine him as president. In that movie, I also saw him behind a podium, giving a rousing (morally based) speech, and wondered how ‘they’ missed the very obvious. Having the advantage of looking back in time, you could see the gift was there all along. Not comparing her to Reagan, not really, but…don’t miss the forest for the trees….

  30. 2010 November 23 10:42 am
    [30]
    reggie1971 permalink

    If not Palin than who?

    Newt Gingrich.

    If you are going to nominate someone whose electability is serously questionable, why not support a candidate with experience and a comprehensive knowledge of the issues.

    I’m sorry, I know it ain’t popular to say, but I have little doubt that if Palin is nominated we will lose, and badly. Aside from other baggage she has that is both earned and unearned, there is the problem of her resigning her position of Governor midway through her first term. The media, frivolous lawsuits, a book tour, a reality show, News punditry, or preparing for a Presidential campaign are not valid excuses for refusing to complete the term to which your constituents elected you. If her quitting raises serious doubts in the mind of a hardcore conservative like me, imagine what influence it will have over the independent swing vote. Put a little pressure on her, distract her, and she’ll give in. That is what they will say about her. Please find somebody else as our nominee.

  31. 2010 November 23 1:02 pm
    [31]
    janzam permalink

    beej

    What a great dialogue about Palin! I really enjoyed reading your assessment of Palin through your perspective, taking some of my concerns and responding to them graciously and with so much clarity. Your post is a template for having a forthright discussion dealing with the pros and cons of a presidential candidate.

    I especially liked how you differentiated the adulation shown Obama versus what was shown Palin, as being more appreciation for a common sense candidate than blind adoration for someone like Obama. Well said, and it made sense to me!

    I also agree with you that there remains time for more vetting to be done — dealing with Palin and everyone else. Somehow, I think the eventual nominee will either boil down to Palin, or some one else that comes out of almost nowhere, answering the call of presidential service for these difficult times. Anyway, your post had a lot of good stuff to process!

  32. 2010 November 23 1:20 pm
    [32]
    beej permalink

    Reggie:

    The frivolous lawsuits were costing the state tons in fees, in man-hours, in litigation time…all of which went into consideration for her resignation. It was costing the state too much both in money and in distractions.

    I am NOT pro-Palin, above anyone else. Her resignation was a major blow for me, till I thought it through, and heard her reasons. And though she doesn’t poll above the Mitts or the Newts, Mitt or Person X can’t win without the people Palin represents. And therein lies the crux of the issue.

    And speaking of baggage, both Newt and Mitt bring a lot of their own, and they themselves would have a lot of explaining to do. They aren’t just a shoe-in because they have the experience. Or did you miss that part in the tea-party discourse? People in general are opposed to the way it’s been, which both Newt and Mitt represent.

    To lead, you need people to follow. How many people are interested enough in Mitt to have bought his last book? Newt’s last book?

    Again: If not Palin, who?

  33. 2010 November 23 2:46 pm
    [33]
    reggie1971 permalink

    Beej:

    The people who bought Palin’s book (I’m one of them, I shook her hand) aren’t enough to elect her. For good or ill she is a very polarizing figure, adored by the GOP, despised by the Dems, but not very popular among independents. I’m not saying that is her fault. I’m just saying it’s a fact. Newt definitely has baggage and lackluster approval ratings, but what he has going for him is:

    A. He polls better than Palin against Obama. Look at this poll for one: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/11/obama-romney-palin.html

    B. He would be light years better than Sarah Palin in a debate. With Gingrich you would have someone with an outstanding command of the issues. An erudite and experienced polemicist and historian. There would be no superficial answers, or “you betcha” type hokiness with Newt.

    C. As far as I know he’s not unpopular among those in the Tea Party. I doubt many hardcore conservatives are going to stay home on election day if Newt gets the nomination instead of Palin.

    Re: Will comment later on Palin’s resignation as governor. Back to work I go.

  34. 2010 November 23 3:13 pm
    [34]
    beej permalink

    He’s not popular with this tea partier. His time as Speaker aside, he’s not a stellar leader. He’s better, imo, doing the heavy thinking, advising, etc. He messed up with me at one point far worse than she did, by aligning with Nancy Pelosi (on a couch no less) re:global warming. He has done enough damage that I wouldn’t vote for him, I don’t think right now I could even if he were the nominee. I feel about him in a way similar to how I feel about McCain.

    I don’t know. Can’t say I’d stay home, either, but in the last presidential election, it was Palin I was thinking about, not McCain.

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