CIR Must Objectively Fail
No not in the political sense. Some form of comprehensive immigration reform may actually end up as laws on the books. But that is like a professor offering the theory but the student seeing that there are large holes in practice. What CIR might offer to the People of the Shadows will be a sham propagated for sheer political manipulation.
Lets take a fictitious Juan. Juan has an 8th grade education. His English is poor. He lacks a green card. This is the characteristic of the majority of the purported 11m illegals in this country. Juan to support himself works under the table at a mom and pop vending company earning $8-10/hr, no benefits, no deductions. That’s ~$21k per year.
Now lets wave our wand and make Juan a green card holder compliments of Senator Rubio. Does Juan keep his job down at the vending company? Doubtful. Nothing against Juan, he’s a hard worker and the boss likes the guy. Its the overhead cost that puts Juan on the street. Depending on who you talk to and what State the vending company is in that overhead can be 50% to 100% of the nominal pay rate of an employee. So from the vending company’s perspective, once Juan steps out of the shadows the effective rate for Juan is now $15-20/hr, aka $42k a year. And its not just Juan, but all the other employees that the mom and pop have as well.
Now Juan’s boss has to crunch the numbers. Does Juan produce a value in the market in excess to his total compensation cost? Plus have enough left over that the company ekes a small profit from his endeavors? If not then Juan and the rest of the employees of the firm are in deep trouble. If the valuation is higher than the gross receipts soon everyone is out of a job as the company will just fold up shop.
Let us assume however that Juan and his peers are a net positive to the firm. Is Juan out of the woods? Maybe not. At the same time that the boss was crunching the numbers he was approached by one of his suppliers for a new type of vending machine. It does not run on coin but uses PayPass, BitCoin, ACH and other card based debit systems. Even more the machines are wired to the net so inventory is done daily and machines are only serviced as sales dictate. Finally, the delivery truck has intelligent automation that stuffs trays with the appropriate snacks; a single driver can now service four times as many machines. The truck rotates the stock and refills the empty trays as the driver is headed to the next location. All the driver does is swap out trays. The owner turns to his wife and says — “Soon it will be just you and me Mabel!”
Bottom line is the opportunity cost has become so high in this country; and the approaching storm of low cost intelligent machine automation will shrink the need for the Juan’s of this world to a tiny fraction of the workforce. Even the last bastion of true manual labor, construction, may not be a safe haven.