CIR Must Objectively Fail

2013 January 30
tags:
by drdog09

No not in the political sense. Some form of comprehensive immigration reform may actually end up as laws on the books. But that is like a professor offering the theory but the student seeing that there are large holes in practice. What CIR might offer to the People of the Shadows will be a sham propagated for sheer political manipulation.

Lets take a fictitious Juan. Juan has an 8th grade education. His English is poor. He lacks a green card. This is the characteristic of the majority of the purported 11m illegals in this country. Juan to support himself works under the table at a mom and pop vending company earning $8-10/hr, no benefits, no deductions. That’s ~$21k per year.

Now lets wave our wand and make Juan a green card holder compliments of Senator Rubio. Does Juan keep his job down at the vending company? Doubtful. Nothing against Juan, he’s a hard worker and the boss likes the guy. Its the overhead cost that puts Juan on the street. Depending on who you talk to and what State the vending company is in that overhead can be 50% to 100% of the nominal pay rate of an employee. So from the vending company’s perspective, once Juan steps out of the shadows the effective rate for Juan is now $15-20/hr, aka $42k a year. And its not just Juan, but all the other employees that the mom and pop have as well.

Now Juan’s boss has to crunch the numbers. Does Juan produce a value in the market in excess to his total compensation cost? Plus have enough left over that the company ekes a small profit from his endeavors? If not then Juan and the rest of the employees of the firm are in deep trouble. If the valuation is higher than the gross receipts soon everyone is out of a job as the company will just fold up shop.

Let us assume however that Juan and his peers are a net positive to the firm. Is Juan out of the woods? Maybe not. At the same time that the boss was crunching the numbers he was approached by one of his suppliers for a new type of vending machine. It does not run on coin but uses PayPass, BitCoin, ACH and other card based debit systems. Even more the machines are wired to the net so inventory is done daily and machines are only serviced as sales dictate. Finally, the delivery truck has intelligent automation that stuffs trays with the appropriate snacks; a single driver can now service four times as many machines. The truck rotates the stock and refills the empty trays as the driver is headed to the next location. All the driver does is swap out trays. The owner turns to his wife and says — “Soon it will be just you and me Mabel!”

Bottom line is the opportunity cost has become so high in this country; and the approaching storm of low cost intelligent machine automation will shrink the need for the Juan’s of this world to a tiny fraction of the workforce. Even the last bastion of true manual labor, construction, may not be a safe haven.

38 Responses leave one →
  1. 2013 January 30 2:29 pm
    [1]
    drdog09 permalink

  2. 2013 January 30 2:35 pm
    [2]
    drdog09 permalink

  3. 2013 January 30 3:15 pm
    [3]
    bc3b permalink

    Very good analysis, drdog09. Does this country really need any more uneducated, low level laborers? I have been shocked at how both Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh pretty much gave Marco Rubio a pass regarding both border enforcement and the financial burden this country will face as 11 – 20 million illegal aliens are put on a path to citizenship. Also, they didn’t address questions like chain migration.

    During these interviews Rubio constantly talked and neither Levin nor Limbaugh interrupted to ask these questions.

  4. 2013 January 30 3:19 pm
    [4]
    bc3b permalink

    Wouldn’t it be nice if our government thought about what is best for the country and its citizens first?

  5. 2013 January 30 3:24 pm
    [5]

    Some this applies well beyond just Juan.

  6. 2013 January 30 3:25 pm
    [6]

    ^ of

  7. 2013 January 30 3:37 pm
    [7]
    drdog09 permalink

    BC,

    I am afraid we lost the `What’s right for the country` sometime right after Clinton’s second administration.

    KH,

    No doubt. At some point one has to wonder where is the bottom end? And the top? It would seem that the costs would evole to = Raw stock + power + design + capital. Under that scheme raw stock and power pricing become important and design and capital less so. It also means that over the long term States with excellent power generation sources become the dominant mfr centers. Same reason that the big data centers are located in places like the columbia basin in the NW.

  8. 2013 January 30 3:42 pm
    [8]
    drdog09 permalink

    evole = evolve

  9. 2013 January 30 5:07 pm
    [9]

    Well Doc I was thinking more of something else really. More and more I wonder at what point do we automate ourselves out of jobs. And yeah I know I know someone still has to make the makers so to speak and doing x will free up y to create new opportunities z, and I generally I agree that has been the case for most of history and likely will continue…until it doesn’t. I’m starting to think at some point it’s going to hit a wall where the new z’s don’t keep up x when population growth is factored in – but then our discussion about population\population growth leveling off over the next couple decades might fix any such glitch. *shrugs*

  10. 2013 January 30 5:18 pm
    [10]
    drdog09 permalink

    KH,

    That has been the standard hasn’t it? New job classifications pop up all the time. But it you go to the end game, the `maker` will be the last robot on the line for the next one. Just like bootstrapping an OS. But I think about the time we get there we will find that human training by whatever means becomes almost meaningless. As it is right now a 4 yr CS student is probably a year behind in current tech and number of positions at the top notch tech schools for masters is limited.

    In certain fields we are devoid of talent. For example, FGPA design is a top notch skill. Yet in the global economy if you need that talent most of it is in India. We did not seem to grow the talent even though the chips were/are designed and made here.

  11. 2013 January 30 5:20 pm
    [11]
    drdog09 permalink

  12. 2013 January 30 6:02 pm
    [12]
    Mr Evilwrench permalink

    Another part is a generational entitlement mentality “my kid’s gonna have it better than I did”, where a craftsman or middle manager or such did well enough his kid could grow up to be a doctor or lawyer. How many lawyers do we really need? Respect for making things, fixing things, doing things is lost. We wind up with people that take some sort of perverse pride in not being able to change a lightbulb, and nobody willing to go into lightbulb changing as a profession, because it’s so… gauche.

    We need people who can design the machines, build the machines, repair the machines. Get enough machines online, and we could have an increasing lifestyle with less labor. But somebody has to be willing to do it. What we have instead are a bunch of lawyers employing the otherwise useless to do roofing and landscaping, while our own dumbed down peasants do better paid by federal debt than they would at any job for which they could conceivably qualify.

    Pretty soon, we won’t have anyone that can afford to pay Juan to cut the grass.

  13. 2013 January 30 6:22 pm
    [13]
    mulletover permalink

    Jennifer Granholm for Secretary of Transportation??

    We need some comic relief, so let’s do this thing!!!

  14. 2013 January 30 6:32 pm
    [14]
    bc3b permalink

    “Govertnor Moleface” won’t go away. Worst governor in Michigan history.

  15. 2013 January 30 6:39 pm
    [15]
    gnqanq permalink

    Looks like more people will be leaving Kommifornia.

    http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/01/30/federal-state-tax-hikes-could-send-athletes-migrating-to-tax-friendlier-states/#ixzz2JTznKiTx

    Looks like a larger hole in the Kommiefornia Budget. Oh just raise the tax rate, that will solve the problem.

  16. 2013 January 30 6:45 pm
    [16]
    RepublicanPundit permalink

    I have always thought the State Department was full of traitors. Now they have proven it. John effin Kerry. Please…

  17. 2013 January 30 6:47 pm
    [17]
    RepublicanPundit permalink

    A Pastor goes to the dentist for a set of false teeth. The first Sunday after he gets his new teeth, he talks for only eight minutes. The second Sunday, he talks for only ten minutes.

    The following Sunday, he talks for two hours and 48 minutes.

    The congregation had to mob him to get him down from the pulpit and they asked him what happened.

    The Pastor explains the first Sunday his gums hurt so bad he couldn’t talk for more than eight minutes. The second Sunday his gums hurt too much to talk for more than 10 minutes. But, the third Sunday, he put his wife’s teeth in by mistake and he couldn’t shut up.

    Note from RP: If I wanted my memsahib to see this, I would show it to her!!

  18. 2013 January 30 7:01 pm
    [18]
    bc3b permalink

    One of the key reasons star outfielder Tori Hunter left the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the Detroit Tigers – Michigan’s flat 4.35% income tax versus Kalifornia’s tax which would be over 13% in his income bracket. Other reasons: 1) he wanted me to watch him play and the name “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim” kinda sucks.

  19. 2013 January 30 7:02 pm
    [19]
    drdog09 permalink

    Mr. Wrench, 12,

    Remember `Cliff Claven`? Well the actor is trying to make a difference in that regard — http://www.ratzenberger.com/manufacturing.php

  20. 2013 January 30 7:06 pm
    [20]
    gnqanq permalink

    A very good take on where we are.

    http://rabbipruzansky.com/2012/11/07/the-decline-and-fall-of-the-american-empire/

    My take is that for any of us to survive, we are going to have to hunker down, get off the radar as much as possible and become as self sufficient as possible.

  21. 2013 January 30 7:53 pm
    [21]
    Mr Evilwrench permalink

    I myself have never shied away from labor. I was born, maybe not upper, but well-to-do middle class, given all the opportunities, a great education, a wonderful life. I grew up scrambling, mowing lawns, winterizing boats, what-have-you. I’ve paid my dues. I can do carpentry, electric, plumbing, auto repair, etc. etc. ad nauseam. I am an engineer, not by training, but by nature. I’m one of those that aces IQ tests. I could’ve been anything, but now I choose to apply myself to learning the skills that will be necessary after the crash, if I survive. I and my family will be in the catbird seat.

  22. 2013 January 30 8:16 pm
    [22]
    drdog09 permalink

    21,

    Same here. Grew up in a middle class family. My dad was in the building industry wholesale biz. As long as I can remember I have had a hammer in my hand. Learned how to do electrial, plumbing and other house repairs. Driven truck, construction, bridge building then computers. May I have the micro farm cranked up before the crash comes. I figure he who can eat will be king.

    In a related note, saw this — http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-30/rise-americas-lunatic-fringe — Oddly I fit the profile so I guess I am a lunatic too.

  23. 2013 January 31 5:24 am
    [24]

    A woman has sued her local hospital,

    saying that after her husband was

    treated recently, he has lost all

    interest in sex.

    A hospital spokesman replied,

    “The man was admitted in Ophthalmology –

    all we did was correct his eyesight.”

  24. 2013 January 31 5:50 am
    [25]

    TEXAS

    ~~~compliments from IP & mutley~~~~

  25. 2013 January 31 6:11 am
    [26]
    drdog09 permalink

    I gotta’ get me one of them thar’ shirts!

  26. 2013 January 31 6:50 am
    [27]

    Homeland Security has advice for confronting mass murders: scissors
    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/shear_bravery_beats_guns_feds_d9BanDpupuVezePd6trYoM

    —-
    You can’t make this up.

  27. 2013 January 31 7:05 am
    [28]

  28. 2013 January 31 8:01 am
    [29]

  29. 2013 January 31 8:16 am
    [30]

    What you shouldn’t grow for dinner at the moment!
    http://hotair.com/archives/2013/01/30/raisin-farmers-in-scotus-case-face-650k-charge-if-they-dont-give-half-their-crop-to-the-feds/comment-page-2/#comments

    47% of your raisin production demanded turned over to a private institution (effectively for eventual resale) without compensation?
    Sounds like yet another “tax” Roberts will put his stamp of approval on.

  30. 2013 January 31 8:33 am
    [31]

    The price fixing farm lobby is alive and well.

  31. 2013 January 31 8:36 am
    [32]
    mulletover permalink

    #29 Enjoyed that. First car was a ’55 Chevy.

  32. 2013 January 31 8:40 am
    [33]
    drdog09 permalink

    30,

    Guess on my part, but there might be a surprise. One of the arguments that Roberts put forth out of the Obamacare case is that it was a tax is that it was not sustainable under the commerce clause. The raisin farmer is fighting the price board which grew out of the ’30’s FDR era — commerce clause material. So if Roberts is true to his thoughts that he intends to shut down the commerce clause avenue, then we will end up with a 5-4 decision in favor of the farmer.

    Place your bets!

  33. 2013 January 31 8:43 am
    [34]
    drdog09 permalink

    29, that was a good romp. Great to see good old American iron tooling down the road.

  34. 2013 January 31 8:44 am
    [35]

    Even if the authority of the commerce clause gives the despots the right to confiscate 47% of the product, they still run afoul of the takings clause of the 5th. The wisc cheese/milk producers have always supported this crap to keep the prices jacked up.

  35. 2013 January 31 8:48 am
    [36]
    drdog09 permalink

    IP,

    You know you are a revolutionary. What is the difference if some idiots on a board take 47% of your crop or instead just take 47% of your income in taxes? None. Which opens up another can of worms.

  36. 2013 January 31 8:55 am
    [37]
    drdog09 permalink

    Something from the old man —

    Why is it that those who use guns to kill movie goers and children in schools are progressive Democrats?

    1) Columbine School shootings – April 20, 1999 – thirteen premeditated murders by Eric Harris and Dylan Klebolt, too young to vote but both from families who were progressive liberals and registered Democrats.

    2) VA Tech shootings– April 16, 2004 – thirty-two premeditated murders by Cho Seung-Hui, a registered Democrat who had written hate mail to President George W. Bush.

    3) Fort Hood shootings – November 5, 2009 – thirteen premeditated murders by Major Nidal Malik Hasan, a Muslim and a registered Democrat.

    4) Aurora, CO. Century Theater shootings – July 20, 2012 – twelve premeditated murders by James Holmes, a registered Democrat, Occupy Wall Street participant, and a progressive liberal who had been a staff worker on the Obama election campaign.

    5) Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings – December 14, 2012 – twenty-seven premeditated murders by Adam Lanza, a registered Democrat whose facebook rants showed he despised Christians.

    95 murders (mostly women and children) and ALL of these shooters were progressive liberal Democrats – – none were NRA members – – none were members of a Tea Party – – none were conservative Republicans.

    Interesting, isn’t it?

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