Peak Irony

2017 March 2
by drdog09

We have had Peak Oil, Peak Prosperity, Peak Investment, et. al. thrown around for quite a few years now. An example —

With the US stock market likely to continue its levitation today, it means that by close of trading, the S&P500 will be above 2,400, the same as Goldman’s year end price target, and 100 points away from Bank of America’s “euphoric blow off top” destination, which is also known as Michael Hartnett’s Icarus Trade. In a note released overnight, Hartnett confirms that he is “sticking with our “Icarus Trade” targets: SPX 2500, GT30 3.5%, DXY 110, oil $70/b”, even as he admits that the euphoria level in stocks is unprecedented:

Yes, markets are increasingly overbought (it’s now 96 trading days since SPX fell >1% in one session).
Yes, sentiment is increasingly bullish (our Bull & Bear Indicator is 7.0, close to the 8.0 sell-signal).
Yes, the easy money has been made. But we believe a March Fed rate hike at a time of booming macro data will cause the bears to fully capitulate into risk assets, causing the melt-up toward our targets in Q2.

He also notes that the renewed jump in bond yields is coinciding with renewed outperformance by small cap & banks, and by high yield bonds vs. investment grade bonds, “thus we are willing to remain long risk assets for a little longer.”

* * *

However it is what happens after this blow off top phase that is more interesting: that is the moment the “Icarus” trade becomes the “Humpty Dumpty” trade.

According to bank of America, “the “great fall” in risk assets comes when hawkish Fed & weaker EPS combine.” That particular fusion will take place in H2, which is when Harnett says it will be time to get out…


Well I had an enjoyable and enlightening lunch repast with a TI exec I have known since my GTE days when he and I would go to ground solving tech integration problems. One thing led to another and we got onto the issue of the lifecycles of empires and money. As we were about ready to leave he made a interesting comment —

Trump as good as he is, will not be able to save the US government. Fact the government is already a dead man walking.

I asked him how he comes to this conclusion, he always being the optimist. He told me he would not say why only I should look at several websites.

I followed his advise and here is what I found. This —

Is worth more than this —

Now the Confederate bill has to be in Primo condition with verified providence to draw that valuation. But a defunct monetary system artifact has a higher valuation than the going currency of the country is shall we say “There’s your sign….”

History has shown that empires die soon after their money has become worthless.

The above ladies and gentlemen is Peak Irony.

28 Responses leave one →
  1. 2017 March 2 8:39 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    Can anybody do a decent Jeff Davis impression around here???

  2. 2017 March 2 8:47 pm
    gnqanq permalink

    drdog – (Preaching to the choir) EVERY currency that has become a FIAT currency has gone to zero. Ours is no different and it will go to zero. If I remember right, fiat currencies last about 40 years. We went to a fiat currency in 1971 when Nixon took us off the Gold Standard. We are due and it is coming.

    I like reading Martin Armstrong’s site. His economic model forecasts bad economically and socially.

    It really gets down to having HARD ASSETS. And if you do not possess them you do not own them.

    Beans, Bullets & Bullion.

  3. 2017 March 3 7:52 am
    justrand permalink

    The trick for most of us remains how do we move our retirement savings from Mutual Funds, etc, into “hard assets” without having them gutted by taxes during the move…or at least knowing when to do so. 🙁

  4. 2017 March 3 8:16 am
    drdog09 permalink


    If one lives in a probate state it would be worthwhile to consider setting up family trust account. All the fat cats do it. Its how they transfer wealth without such hefty penalties. There are some untold advantages. Here’s one. Under family trust provisions a cross generational cash transfer is possible without having it declared a gift by the IRS. Its structured as a loan with the usual provisions and the return is provided back to the trust. “But dog the loan itself will be a burden…” Depends on the terms my friend. Example: Interest only, balance due and payable upon death of the lender.

    With ZIRP right now, you could probably get by with a 2% deal considering mtg rates are in the 4% range. When the last parent dies the principal becomes due. Well heck, the estate is passed to the children. The balance is paid off upon transfer. Check with your financial advisor of course.

  5. 2017 March 3 8:18 am
    drdog09 permalink


    And yes I agree the trick is converting.

  6. 2017 March 3 8:51 am
    bc3b permalink

    Had an eye doctor appointment this morning. He has a medical TV service which shows eye care stuff but has newe “headlines” streaming across the bottom of the screen. These headlines portrayed Trump very negatively.

  7. 2017 March 3 9:37 am
    President Paul permalink

    GOP considers excluding rich from healthcare tax credits: report
    People who pay taxes are excluded and people who don’t pay get free tax credits they never paid in in the first place.

  8. 2017 March 3 9:43 am
    mulletover permalink

    Best idea is to live it up, and spend it all.

    My goal is for my last check to bounce.

    Yeehah !!!

  9. 2017 March 3 9:44 am
    mulletover permalink

    In my dreams, so says Ms. Mullet.

  10. 2017 March 3 9:46 am
    President Paul permalink

    Rand Paul on morning Joe about the secret Obamacare repeal

    Bill will be “take it or leave” bill like the gang of eight amnesty bill.

    This is a major scam Paul Ryan is running.

  11. 2017 March 3 9:47 am
    President Paul permalink

    btw- If the scam fails, then a clean repeal vote in the next step.

  12. 2017 March 3 10:31 am


  13. 2017 March 3 10:55 am
    bc3b permalink

  14. 2017 March 3 10:56 am
    bc3b permalink

    With Republicans like Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, McCain and Miss Lindsey who needs Democrats?

  15. 2017 March 3 11:48 am
    bc3b permalink

    CNN hires Valarie Jarrett’s daughter to cover the DOJ:

    One of these days I expect we’ll see Jeff Zucker dressing up like Joseph Goebbels.

  16. 2017 March 3 1:44 pm
    bc3b permalink

    Bush43 bashing Trump on Jimmy Kimmel:

    Apparently this moron thinks liberals will buy his book.

  17. 2017 March 3 2:16 pm
    drdog09 permalink

  18. 2017 March 3 2:25 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    Aaaaah yes, — — The Left is always so above board with their effort to help the little guy. NOT.

  19. 2017 March 3 6:30 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    Explain again all the stink about Trump grabbing something…. — — Sure seems a lot that going on lately.

  20. 2017 March 3 11:30 pm
    justrand permalink

    Just got back…ya’ll seem to have kept the world running (more or less). 🙂

  21. 2017 March 4 5:23 am
    drdog09 permalink

  22. 2017 March 4 6:17 am
    drdog09 permalink

  23. 2017 March 4 6:43 am
    President Paul permalink

    fake news is now “gas lighting” Trump
    Trump Did Not Hint at the ‘Comprehensive Reform’ That Sank Rubio

    There was a short-lived frenzy on Tuesday as Trump comments to news anchors indicated that he might be open to an amnesty for some unauthorized immigrants. Liberal journalists and anti-Trump Republican consultants were going crazy with the thought that Trump might agree to the compromise that sunk Marco Rubio. It was disgusting to watch them whine and moan about how compromise had been rejected but now Trump was coming around. The truth is that Rubio’s Gang of Eight comprehensive immigration reform was no compromise, and many of the elites in both parties are so caught up in culture of lies that they spun themselves right into Trump’s presidency.

  24. 2017 March 4 6:48 am
    President Paul permalink

    “(((Mark Krikorian)))‏ @MarkSKrikorian 15h15 hours ago
    if the Trump administration is going to let DACA continue, shouldn’t it at least stop subsidizing applications?”

  25. 2017 March 4 7:32 am
    justrand permalink

  26. 2017 March 4 8:11 am
    drdog09 permalink


    What’s the line in Gladiator? “Are you being entertained?”

    I say, indeed we are! The Left is like a bulldog who having caught the car thinks that catching another one is appropriate. What scares me the most is that the press for much of this country’s history was the vanguard to alert the public to the dangers ahead. Eric Severid in Berlin, Ed Morrow in London were men who rung the alarm to what was going on in Europe. Our Pressitutes? They are in bed with the very people that a Severid or Morrow would be railing against today.

    Scary times indeed.

  27. 2017 March 4 9:48 am
    justrand permalink

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