Hanky Panky

2020 September 3
tags:
by drdog09

In the post, Poppy Cock!, the restrictive timeline was laid out. So the question is if I were the Democrats what would be the most fruitful States in which to engage my nefarious mail in fraud? The data sheets that follow cover three components:

  • The Likely Tally needed
  • The No Mail In category
  • The Mail In category

Please note that the breakdown of the numbers are based on the 2016 results which of course may not reflect 2020 outcomes. This analysis also assumes ‘winner take all’ for all States. Not a accurate depiction but any other analysis creates a massive number of permutations.

If the scenario follows as it did in 2016 then the GOP needs 70 additional EVs to win and the Democrats 80. Give or take there would be 146 EVs up for grabs as battleground States.

Projected Totals

No Mail In

For the Democrats even if they ran the table in battleground States they would come up short of the total. For the Republicans running the table would deliver them victory as unlikely as a 100% sweep would be. The fact that Virginia is firmly in the grips of the Democrats make that an unlikely event and hence would come up short. The States that would bear fruit for either side:

  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Pennsylvania

46 EVs total.


Mail In

Of the 17 States that have post election mail in counting only 7 extend beyond a week. The average time to continue a mail in count is 4 days. All of the mail in States have a requirement that the ballots must have a post mark on or before Nov 3rd. ND requires that the ballot be postmarked on the 2nd to be counted.

A 100% win in the battleground States would not produce enough EVs for either party. Hence it would be necessary that an attempt be made to swing a entrenched State to their side of the ledger. The GOP is the most vulnerable as they have to defend FL,NC,OH,TX. The Democrats have the easier bit to defend; CA,IL,NY,NJ are unlikely to flip this cycle.


Bottom Line

If I were the Democrats I would make a heavy push straight up to win MI,MN,PA. Then spend my time for the mail in fraud in FL,NC and maybe TX for safety. Even without TX, that combination would deliver 90 EVs and victory.

55 Responses leave one →
  1. 2020 September 3 4:53 am
    [1]
    drdog09 permalink

  2. 2020 September 3 6:24 am
    [2]
    justrand permalink

    There a massive silent majority out there right now, that the Democrats must overcome. They have a worthless candidate, whose ONLY attribute is that he ISN’T Donald Trump. Period.

    And, millions upon millions of Americans are beyond fed up with being told they “RACIST!”, and that they must put up with rioting, looting and mayhem as a result.

    If the Democrats DON’T cheat this will be a landslide of epic proportions. They WILL cheat, if only to avoid that.

  3. 2020 September 3 6:47 am
    [3]

    If the enemy wins by massive cheating, should I seek solace in the fact that we actually won, and not be too harsh on my “fellow inmates”, or just say phuck em all?? I am leaning toward the latter.

    Even if we pull this one out this time, WBF in the future due to immigration and 3rd world breeders taking over. This will be our last hurrah regardless of what happens this Nov. I fear. A good time to be leaving this veil of tears.

  4. 2020 September 3 6:56 am
    [4]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Heh.
    https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2020/09/highlights-of-news_3.html
    ITEM 6: 1010 WINS Radio reported, “A bar on Long Island is in hot water after it reportedly took bets on shooting deaths in New York City and Chicago.

    “The Cliffton on East Main Street in Patchogue created a gambling pool on which city would see the most shooting deaths over the Labor Day holiday weekend, with the winner offered a cash prize, according to Newsday.

    “‘Let the shooting sprees begin!’ the bar reportedly posted to Instagram last week along with a photo of a Super Bowl-style betting box.

    “Officials have since expressed outrage over the gambling pool.”

    If only the Democrat mayors of these cities were as outraged about the slaughter in their streets as they are about people mocking their cities.

  5. 2020 September 3 7:25 am
    [6]
    bc3b permalink

    Joe is going to Kenosha today:

    * Will he be using Hillary’s 2016 pilot who couldn’t find Wisconsin and lands in Minneapolis? Joe: “Gee, Kenosha has a lot of big buildings!”
    * What will Joe say/do to embarrass himself?
    * How will the media attempt to cover it up?

  6. 2020 September 3 8:40 am
    [7]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Quite a lot of research went into this post! Thanks.
    I notice this paragraph repeated:
    If the scenario follows as it did in 2016 then the GOP needs 70 additional EVs to win and the Democrats 80. Give or take there would be 145 EVs up for grabs as battleground States.

    Just want to assure you that someone reads your stuff 🙂 🙂

  7. 2020 September 3 9:06 am
    [8]
    bc3b permalink

  8. 2020 September 3 9:34 am
    [9]
    drdog09 permalink

    Jim, I’ll get that fixed.

  9. 2020 September 3 9:39 am
    [10]
    drdog09 permalink

    8,

    How absurd. The very definition of a minor is that they are incapable of free will. Its why we don’t permit them to sign contracts. Drive a car till a certain age., etc, etc. Mark my words, there will be an epidemic of Teacher-Student encounters and lawsuits. California is becoming Lord of the Flies.

  10. 2020 September 3 10:02 am
    [12]
    bc3b permalink

    Tennis is another sport you can scratch:

    https://hotair.com/archives/karen-townsend/2020/09/01/u-s-open-champ-brings-black-lives-matter-mask-protest-tennis-court/

    Looks like we’re down to golf and curling.

  11. 2020 September 3 10:03 am
    [13]
    Eph permalink

    BC,

    Never watched Tennis in my entire life

  12. 2020 September 3 10:04 am
    [14]
    Eph permalink

    Anyone recall the RCP polling average for PA and MI 60 days out from the 2016 election?

  13. 2020 September 3 10:24 am
    [15]
    bc3b permalink

    Biden launches add about systemic racism/police brutality:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/514964-biden-launches-ad-on-police-violence-against-black-americans-in-key

    It must be cops shooting and killing all those black men in Chicago and New York every weekend. Or, maybe the Klan.

  14. 2020 September 3 10:28 am
    [16]
    bc3b permalink

    Eph and King –

    Vegas odds unchanged – Trump up by 4.55%

  15. 2020 September 3 11:18 am
    [17]
    Eph permalink

    https://youtu.be/Xpzl9IQHc9s

    Slow Joe say what????

  16. 2020 September 3 12:02 pm
    [18]
    drdog09 permalink

    17,

    My God, Trump’s taking hip-hop by storm too. If the Dims have lost the ‘hood whadda da got left boss?

  17. 2020 September 3 1:20 pm
    [19]
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    Kayleigh went scorched Earth on the witch today….. EPIC!

  18. 2020 September 3 1:34 pm
    [20]
    Eph permalink

    19 Ghost,

    Just watched

    She should do that everyday for the next 60 days

  19. 2020 September 3 1:37 pm
    [21]

  20. 2020 September 3 1:47 pm
    [22]

    “(Reuters) – Seven years after former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden blew the whistle on the mass surveillance of Americans’ telephone records, an appeals court has found the program was unlawful – and that the U.S. intelligence leaders who publicly defended it were not telling the truth. ”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nsa-spying/u-s-court-mass-surveillance-program-exposed-by-snowden-was-illegal-idUSKBN25T3CK

    Don’t hold your breath on this one either:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/google-antitrust-justice-department.html

    Ok… so where are the charges against those “intelligence leaders” for breaking the law and then lying to congress and of course the public about it? … like the Durham white-wash – don’t hold your breath.

    RE: Bottomline – Pretty sure that’ what they are doing. Anyone know if the signs last week of Trump campaign shifting significant resources out of MI are true? Not a great sign if they’ve already given up there.

  21. 2020 September 3 1:57 pm
    [23]

    Campus reform video:

    Tell students Trumps policy plans for second term but label them as Bidens.

    https://summit.news/2020/09/03/video-students-think-trumps-second-term-plans-are-great-when-told-they-are-bidens/

  22. 2020 September 3 2:27 pm
    [24]
    drdog09 permalink

  23. 2020 September 3 2:49 pm
    [25]
    justrand permalink

    drdog, the link in #24 reminded me I needed to contribute to Trump…again. Just did!

  24. 2020 September 3 3:01 pm
    [26]
    Eph permalink

    24.

    Warm up The King!

    PA is lost too, says the MSM

  25. 2020 September 3 3:07 pm
    [27]
    Eph permalink

    21 KH,

    I just deleted my FB. No longer useful.

    Ill stick with youtube videos.

  26. 2020 September 3 3:16 pm
    [29]
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    Damn it! I thought the king died over the weekend….. well I guess I needs to get know him again….

  27. 2020 September 3 3:20 pm
    [30]
    Eph permalink

    Ghost,

    Sorry bud but even the “legit” polls have non college graduate numbers falling bigly for Trump.

    People know that if Slow Joe wins they will never have to work again. Thats tough to beat.

  28. 2020 September 3 3:22 pm
    [31]
    Eph permalink

    Terrible optics for Michigan.

    And trade for Nevada ??

    Really??

  29. 2020 September 3 3:26 pm
    [32]

    24 – heard an interview with R.McDaniel basically confirm that last week, she kept dodging and talking around the question ask of her though saying “we’re still defending mi…though etc.”.

    26 – Always was going to be another huge uphill climb like it was in 2016, they (d) ain’t getting caught flat footed in either state this time around. PA – more new dems registration there between 2016 and 2018 than any other state.

  30. 2020 September 3 3:32 pm
    [33]

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/09/breaking-new-hampshire-man-arrested-voting-twice-2016-election-project-veritas-presents-evidence-ags-office-video/#post-comments

    Even when given the evidence of voter fraud 10mo before, AG doesn’t act till they’re about to be exposed.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/09/participant-biden-event-kenosha-spills-beans-admits-given-paper-telling-say/#post-comments

    Reminds me of “Cue the deer” – Funny Farm.
    https://youtu.be/XJEv8u97ZYY

    The long running movie of Wag the Candidate (2020) continues.

  31. 2020 September 3 3:39 pm
    [34]
    bc3b permalink

    Eph #26 –

    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46

    Looks like you have been having liquid lunch with the King again. Hope you went where I did last night. Once I scraped all the drool off the second half of my sandwich at lunch today, I discovered it was French dip.

  32. 2020 September 3 3:49 pm
    [35]
    drdog09 permalink

    Disney gets a clue on woke culture? — https://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=5874667

  33. 2020 September 3 3:52 pm
    [38]
    Eph permalink

    34 BC,

    That poll is freaking scary

    If Trump doesnt get 25%+ of the black vote he will get slaughtered in PA. His white vote is way down.

  34. 2020 September 3 4:08 pm
    [40]

    40k watching on rsbn feed for pa starting in minute or two.

    can watch via:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlC-KSVRMn0
    or
    https://www.Twitch.com/DonaldTrump

  35. 2020 September 3 4:10 pm
    [41]

    38 – You noticed that too huh, be lucky to get 1/2 that in actual votes. Remember they said the same bs in sept 2016… 20-25% black support and yet it didn’t appear in votes, same in some 2018 races. At best you can hope for 1/2 that and the other half don’t personally vote (though someone will likely vote for them regardless this time around if they dont).

  36. 2020 September 3 4:23 pm
    [42]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Moderator for CSPAN debate:

    From May:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Steve_Scully&oldid=957465311
    During his degree he completed a study abroad program at the University of Copenhagen, interned for Sen. Joe Biden and served as a staff assistant in Sen. Ted Kennedy’s media affairs office.

    From today:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Scully
    During his degree he completed a study abroad program at the University of Copenhagen, served as an intern in Sen. Ted Kennedy’s media affairs office.

    Powerline has a story too

  37. 2020 September 3 4:36 pm
    [43]

    42 – No surprise really, what else is new.

  38. 2020 September 3 4:39 pm
    [44]
    mpt permalink

    WINS Radio reported, A bar on Long Island is in hot water after it reportedly took bets on shooting deaths in New York City and Chicago.

    So what. The bar should tell the “officials” to get stuffed.

  39. 2020 September 3 4:40 pm
    [46]
    drdog09 permalink

    Part of that Rasmussen report was from online responses. But how much? I don’t trust online responses even less than normal phone polling.

  40. 2020 September 3 4:41 pm
    [47]
    drdog09 permalink

    “So what. The bar should tell the “officials” to get stuffed.”

    Liquor license.

  41. 2020 September 3 4:42 pm
    [48]
    bc3b permalink

    MSM will be posting all sorts of misinformation (lies) between now and election day. Anyone who freaks out on every poll will end up in a padded room.

    The campaign starts in earnest Monday.

  42. 2020 September 3 4:53 pm
    [49]
    drdog09 permalink

    An interesting protest — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aitZE0A4Cc

  43. 2020 September 3 4:56 pm
    [50]
    mpt permalink

    MSM will be posting all sorts of misinformation (lies) between now and election day. Anyone who freaks out on every poll will end up in a padded room.

    Agreed. I came to BJG feeling pretty good this afternoon and now I’m depressed after looking over this thread.

    Anyone remember an experimental poll from what I believe was a University somewhere in Southern California that was showing Trump ahead of Clinton the majority of the 2016 campaign? That poll kept me sane while all the MSM polls were giving Clinton a 80%+ chance of winning.

  44. 2020 September 3 4:56 pm
    [51]
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    I may be fiddling while it burns but it sure doesn’t seem or feel like Joe is ahead…. polls will be pols….. as for the Michigan pull, if true that is concerning….

  45. 2020 September 3 5:04 pm
    [52]
    mpt permalink

    I found it. It was the USC Dornsife election Daybreak poll.

    https://election.usc.edu/

    Looks bleaker for Trump this go around.

  46. 2020 September 3 5:13 pm
    [53]
    Eph permalink

    52 mph,

    Biden +8?

    Even The King would laugh at that.

    Looks like USC got woke.

  47. 2020 September 3 5:17 pm
    [54]
    Eph permalink

    I actually agree with Rand more and more everyday.

    WBF regardless

  48. 2020 September 3 6:32 pm
    [55]

    WORDS TO LIVE BY

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