Global Winners and Losers

2020 April 27
by drdog09

… Or the facts post-globalism.

Over Arching Theme

Winners have to have a combination of factors

  • Favorable geography.
  • Defensible borders.
  • Self sustaining logistics.
  • Mid to large consumer base.
  • Reasonably secure defense arm.

A given country does not have to have all these factors just a majority of them. Also a factor is being in a region lacking in hostile counter parties. So lets do the tally –


  1. China. The CoVid19 virus could very well be the death knell of China’s rise as a global power. When the full understanding comes into focus, their culpability in the whole affair will destroy their export markets. China also has a $40Tn house of cards in national and regional sovereign debt instruments that may not be payable to the lenders.

China’s weakest link is their oil supply. It has to come half way around the world and there is a navy that can stop that in a heart beat – Japan. Japan has the second largest blue water navy after the US. If things were to turn hostile between them Japan will simply start sinking Chinese flagged tankers. Japan already has the logistics and and ships positioned to make that happen in the Indian Ocean.

  1. EU. We are already seeing it. Britain exited. Several member states have already closed their borders against the virus outbreak regardless of EU edicts to the contrary. Italy is threatening to leave the EU since they have not been getting sufficient medical aid from sister countries. As member states continue to flex their muscle the perceived value of being in the EU wanes.

Couple that with a situation where the EU has not solved the disparity in economic standards between the indebted Euro South and the flush Euro North. Eventually Euro North will resent being the lender of last resort to Euro South. When that happens the Euro as a currency will dwindle and be lost forever. What follows is dissolution of the political experiment associated with the economics. No advantage – no need. That division weakens the market availability as some member states will erect tariffs to protect certain industries.

  1. India. Its problems are multi-fold. First it this an exporter and without it their economy cannot grow. Its saving grace is that it is close to its oil source. It would have to expand its naval presence to secure that lifeline adding additional costs to its economy.

But more worrisome is that it sits next to a nuclear neighbor – Pakistan. They had recent skirmishes along the Indian northern border. This is not a favorable position. Geo-politically at some point India will have to choose:

  • Favor Japan over China? Maybe get some blow-back from Russia as a consequence? Get drawn into regional African conflicts against the Chinese over resources?
  • Pick an alliance with a regional superpower. India is in no position to continue its ‘Third Way’ diplomacy.

The fact is that region of the globe is unstable in every direction if you are standing in New Delhi.

  1. Middle East. Quite frankly the US is reaching the point of not giving a damn about the region. Short of its commitment to open seas and European partners it has no justification for the ongoing expense of maintaining a carrier battle group in the region. The Europeans could continue to depend on Russian fuel sources and lessen their concerns over ME oil sources.

Other than oil, the region has little else to offer. Iran and Saudi Arabia are at odds. Yemen is a constant thorn against Arabia. Syria, Lebanon are basket cases and quickly becoming under the orbit of the Turks. Iraq itself is barely a country anymore and Afghanistan appears to prefer staying in the 7th century AD.

As globalism wanes the middle east will become a backwater.

  1. South Korea. The strongest of the losers. It recognized its geopolitical and economic situation and was the first to cut a deal with the Trump administration so as not to grow any weaker. SK sits next to the biggest power keg of all. If China was to blow up internally there will be collateral damage which they cannot escape. Not even the US could extract them in such a situation, especially if Japan decides to sit it out.

Economically their entire economy is based on exports. Like China they depend on foreign oil. Unlike China however SK has reasonable relations with Japan both being codependent trading partners. In any given regional uproar both would probably leverage off each other. Unfortunately SK sits right next to the second biggest wildcard, north Korea. SK’s entire economy could be a shambles in a week should north Korea decide to be an aggressor.


  1. Argentina. From a global position nothing could be better. They border Chile with some of the highest mountains on the planet. Their inland area is similar to US Midwest in climate. Brazil and Paraguay as neighbors have a ‘leave us alone, we got our own problems to solve’ mindset. Most of all, to take over the country you ‘have to get there’ to do it. Few countries have the assets to pull that off.

Due to the favorable real estate, even though the govt always seems to screw up, the economy tends to bounce back fairly quickly. Fact the singular black mark for Argentina is their propensity to jack the govt off its foundations and throw it into the South Atlantic for a favorable general, only to off his head a couple years later.

Keep in mind that during the 1870’s Argentina was the richest country in the world. They could do it again if they got serious.

  1. USA. Massive internal market. Most extensive developed inland waterways. Stable financial system (right now). The last country on any given list that is dependent on external trade to make it economically. Favorable neighbors even if they grouse alot. Strong military. The list of positives are quite long.

The key to the US in the near future is – how deep do we go in becoming self sufficient in most industries? If we go long the made in the USA label the balance of the world is going to come up a cropper. China will cease to expand and most likely would default on all their debt commitments. The Europeans who are still our largest trading partner(s) would feel a cool breeze in the trade dept.

Manufacturing domestically would expand. With robotics the labor inputs would be less though there would be an uptick in labor demand. A key segment, farming, maybe negatively impacted if the nationalist impulse includes seriously closing the borders and extracting the illegals out over a generation.

  1. EU member states (Poland, Hungary, France)

France is better positioned than nearly any other nation state in the alliance. They not export dependent like Germany. Their energy supplies are mostly nuclear. They can feed themselves with minimal inputs from other countries. Immigration is France’s biggest problem.

Most of the former Warsaw Pact countries will fair reasonably short of an all out war on the continent. Poland is particularly nationalistic and has the resources to fair well economically. Hungary and former Czechoslovakia has strong conservative leadership. Both have been in a strong rebuilding phase since the fall of the CCCP in Russia. None of them face a external threat as Russia itself is more focused internally even with their involvement in Syria.

  1. Turkey. Turkey only has one rival and that is the Kurds who pose only as a minor irritant. Considering that the ME is reaching a slow meltdown Turkey may yet take control of the region. Should it occur they may very well hold the keys to getting oil out of the fields and into Europe. Regardless of whether that occurs Turkey has access to global markets, holds sway in a minor way on Russian interests thru the strait, and is a NATO partner should things go weary.

  2. Russia. A country with certain positives. Vast mineral reserves. Educated population. Surprisingly stable government. Nuclear power with a strong defense apparatus. Its primary exports being to its Western neighbors and that is increasing.

But there are issues. China might be a partner now but China eyes the Siberian East as something that they desire. The US has surrounded them with NATO bases. Finally they have a limited time frame to maximize their gains – population. Russia is expected to lose nearly a third of its population over the next two decades to simple old age. A deflated population weakens the defense posture of any nation in that situation.

  1. Japan. This is a country that planned ahead. Regardless of any geo-political outcomes they may still make a profit. More than half of their production facilities are now located around the world in locales close to the consumption of the product. You could nuke Japan tomorrow and they would still be making widgets on Wednesday. As an import/export nation their navy is the second strongest in the world. After failing the first time, they came around and inked a deal with the US for favorable export rights. They have been doing so with other countries, most notably those formerly of the UK Commonwealth of yore.

The detraction factor are primarily two. China for one. In a regional power struggle if Japan cannot stop the flow of oil to the Chinese they will be steam rolled. Then add in the NK mad man for which Japan is in missile range right now. Japan is having internal discussions as to becoming a nuclear power. The second is depopulation. Simple fact of the matter is, the kids are not having kids. Part of the issue is mitigated by the spread of manufacturing around the globe. But at the rate it is going, Japan could resemble a theme park in the future.

That is the rundown. So what is the takeaway?

  • Global wide supply chains will come to an end. Not right away but over probably a decade. It won’t disappear totally but the shift will be away from finished goods and into delivery of raw materials. With 3D design and micro manufacturing nearly any country can make the items they need if they possess the IP related talent to make it happen.

  • Shipping is going to shrink in depths never seen before. It is quite possible that one or two cruise lines might disappear in five years of less.

  • Countries will trade in blocs. eg: NAFTA II for example. Prefer to acquire raw materials with bloc partners where said supply can be more readily secured.

  • Long term unless trends change, the European Union is toast. The Euro currency might linger for quite some time. But the political aspects of the EU are on a short timeline to oblivion.

  • The US will cease to be the global cop for the world. Empire is too costly and the benefits few.

There were other countries that could be included on the lists but not due to multiple factors. Take for example Sweden. Its a loser but of little consequence. Its in the EU as a loser. Its internal affairs are in a shambles thanks for permissive immigration. But its impact on the global stage is minimal.

52 Responses leave one →
  1. 2020 April 27 4:23 am
    drdog09 permalink

    If governments won’t bash China; people will — — as a marker of future patterns.

  2. 2020 April 27 5:31 am
    bc3b permalink

    Excellent thread.

    If 2020 demonstrated anything, it’s the importance of nationalism. When a crisis occurs, every country is on its own. The EU did very little to aid Italy. The Italians actually received more assistance from the US than the EU.

    The pandemic in Italy and Iran also demonstrated how dangerous partnerships with China can be.

  3. 2020 April 27 6:18 am
    justrand permalink

    splendid analysis, drdog.

    I pray the USA is one of the “Winners”, but it will only be so if we DON’T run headlong into Socialism…i.e., if Biden is NOT elected. 4 more years of Trump may keep us from that, but if the Democrats install Biden in there as a Puppet-President, they will use this “crisis” (and a few others) to force Socialism on America…beyond what is already there.

  4. 2020 April 27 8:39 am
    drdog09 permalink

    Thank you gentlemen.

    Indeed I hope that the US is in the winner circle. Biden would certainly have us headlong in the socialist bent.

  5. 2020 April 27 8:49 am
    justrand permalink

    Right now places like CostCo are providing “Senior Shopping” hours…3 or so days a week, an hour or so before others are let in.

    We tried it once, and frankly didn’t think it was worth it. But it was OUR choice.

    In listening to various “experts” I have heard a disturbing twist to this. Some are “hinting” that to protect the “at risk population” perhaps the “Senior Shopping” hours wouldn’t be ONLY for Seniors…but would instead be the ONLY time Seniors could shop. Likewise other activities.

    People 65 and older would be SEGREGATED from the rest of the populace…hey, maybe we’d have “Senior Only” drinking fountains!

    If you don’t think this concept (except maybe the “drinking fountain” joke) will get traction, then you haven’t been reading the news.

    Stay tuned…

  6. 2020 April 27 9:03 am
    drdog09 permalink


    Give me a day or so, I have a idea for a meme. Central figure would be a black only water fountain, a black only restroom. Or the back of the bus, ala Rosa Parks. Trick is finding those images.

  7. 2020 April 27 9:30 am
    Eph permalink

  8. 2020 April 27 11:20 am
    justrand permalink

    thx drdog…a little photo-shopping with “Seniors Only” would drive the point home! 🙂

  9. 2020 April 27 1:04 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    Put a fork in’em — Former Neighbor of Tara Reade, a Democrat, Boldly Comes Forward to Verify Joe Biden’s Sexual Assault — He’s done.

  10. 2020 April 27 1:13 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    Terrific post! Thought provoking and a lot of thought went into it.

    I do worry for the US, we are such a target. My worry is some sort of anonymous sneak attack. Perhaps dirty nukes or bio-war.

    drdog, 10, wow! Although, I would not have been upset if she had waited till a month before the convention … or days before the election.

  11. 2020 April 27 2:33 pm
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    #10 – Honestly Doc…. I don’t want him done. He’s a shoe in for a Trump second term. Horribly flawed candidate at best. If they should replace him with an unproven ( Mooch, Cuomo, Newsome, etc. ) it may reinvigorate the dems. I like the current status of the matchup. Just my opinion.

  12. 2020 April 27 2:44 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    JR, its in the BJG media store if you need it.

  13. 2020 April 27 2:47 pm
    drdog09 permalink


    At a tactical level I agree.

    This is a chance to strategically nuke the press. Different game. If the press is utterly proven worthless more than it is already, then it won’t matter who they run for evermore.

  14. 2020 April 27 2:51 pm
    justrand permalink

    thx drdog!!! Gonna post it on Facebook! 🙂

  15. 2020 April 27 3:02 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    JR, send a copy to Costco. 🙂

  16. 2020 April 27 3:50 pm
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    BUT….. until the press is completely defunded and or bankrupt (#NEVER) people won’t trust them any more or any less than they currently do. Next story is the next story. Moving on… They aren’t going anywhere quickly nor will the DNC or people like Bezos(Ubub) let them go anywhere. They are the false prophet(s).

  17. 2020 April 27 4:48 pm

    Sublime article mutley.

  18. 2020 April 27 5:26 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    Someone posted in a prev thread about the sad death of a UK volunteer who took a proposed vaccine, got sick and then died. When I mentioned it in a NextDoor online debate about shutdown vs Liberation, a lady posted this:

    “I just read in The Guardian, that this UK doctor and vaccine volunteer, Elise Granato is doing fine, alive and well. She is very surprised to hear that she died.”

    Ewww. The Guardian. Still, be careful before depending on the information

  19. 2020 April 27 5:39 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    Satire alert!

    Thanking celebs for their encouragement. If they can get through this time, so can we …

    Babylon Bee
    The title says it all.

  20. 2020 April 27 8:42 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    Should the US suspend its ethanol program and instead grow extra corn and beans to alleviate starvation in Africa and probably, by the way they are going, Europe?
    This guy says yes.

  21. 2020 April 27 11:10 pm
    Wylie E. Coyote permalink

    Here is something positive we can do to ease the fear & panic. This makes sense to do since serological test has shown that the COVID19 infection is has at least 50x to 80x the number of “confirmed cases” shown who werent tested but have already recovered.

    There are several private companies now selling Covid 19 Anitbody test kits. Here is one that gets a result in 15 mins, is simple to use, and is 95% accurate for detecting antibodies from a recent covid19 infection & 98% accurate in detecting antibodies for a longer in the past infection.

    Business & individuals can know with an extremely high degree of accuracy if they have already developed natural immunity. Better than silly masks and standing 6ft away from everybody for 18 months!…/down…/Rapid_15_min_Rapidward.pdf

  22. 2020 April 27 11:42 pm
    Wylie E. Coyote permalink

    “First, we know the risk of ­dying from COVID-19 is far lower than initially thought, and not significant for the overwhelming majority of those infected.

    Multiple recent studies from Iceland, Germany, USC, Stanford and New York City all suggest that the fatality rate if infected is likely far lower than early estimates, perhaps under 0.1 to 0.4 percent, i.e., 10 to 40 times lower than estimates that motivated extreme isolation.

    In the Big Apple, with almost one-third of all US deaths, the rate of death for all people ages 18 to 45 is 0.01 percent, or 13 per 100,000 in the population, one-eightieth of the rate for people age 75 and over.

    For people under 18, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.

    Of Empire State fatalities, almost two-thirds were over 70 years of age. And regardless of age, if you don’t already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small.

    Of 7,959 NYC COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions, 99.2 percent had an underlying illness.”

  23. 2020 April 28 4:18 am
    drdog09 permalink

    Judge rules that Illy Guv exceeded emergency powers — — Let the lawsuits begin.

    Jim, you were looking for ways to stick it to the governors — ramp up the lawyers.

  24. 2020 April 28 6:12 am
    drdog09 permalink

  25. 2020 April 28 6:18 am
    drdog09 permalink

  26. 2020 April 28 6:27 am
    justrand permalink

    YouTube continues to function as The Ministry of Truth, suppressing any and all information it (and the Democrat Party) doesn’t approve of:

  27. 2020 April 28 6:36 am
    JimNorCal permalink

    Shutdown extended to May 18 ( from May 3) in my area.
    Expectation it will be further extended to May 31.

    I think that’s a County Shutdown.
    People are noticing that rules are in levels: state, county, city. Not all are consistent. And, they change.
    Santa Cruz closed its beaches then, after a week, reopened. All state parks and beaches are closed, $1000 fine for violation.
    San Mateo beaches open to residents, you must prove you live within 5 miles of the beach. Otherwise ordered to leave because going to the beach is not essential.
    In Cupertino (home of Apple) you must wear a mask to go in a store. In bordering Sunnyvale, mask is recommended but not required.
    And there is an Army of Karens on NextDoor screeching about people who are not sufficiently fearful. Asking “What police number do I call?” To report on behavior they don’t approve.
    In my area, very Blue, I think Trump got 30% of the vote. And really, on NextDoor you find the prosperous. The folks still being paid to work from home. The less well off find no joy in debating progtards. Or they’re busy finding an open Food Bank so they can eat today. Or online with EDD trying to file for unemployment as the system lags and crashes.
    Still, I’m surprised at the pro-Reopen comments. Still a minority, I’d guess. But a gratifyingly large minority even on NextDoor.

  28. 2020 April 28 6:38 am
    drdog09 permalink

    All this time and still can’t get it right….

    It also points out that most solutions are arms length in nature. As in God gave you hands and a brain, use them.

  29. 2020 April 28 6:56 am
    fight on permalink

    More fox news BS. First they fire Trish Reagan for speaking the truth that dems are enjoying the lock down from corona 1984.

    Yet they keep Donna Brazielle who screams “go to hell” to Rona McDaniel with no apology.

    And now this.

  30. 2020 April 28 7:28 am
    justrand permalink

    People follow laws for two and ONLY two reasons: they are law-abiding (because of their conscience, their religion, their upbringing, their honest nature, they fear the consequences…or some combination of those) -OR- they ONLY fear the consequences. The second category, those that ONLY abide by the law because they fear the consequences are known as: “Criminals”.

    California has removed the “consequences”. Those of us in the first category (law-abiding) will continue to follow the law…where the law makes sense. Those in the second category (criminals) are realizing it is OPEN SEASON for crime! And, the criminals are applauding California’s efforts to disarm the law-abiding, thus making California safer for criminals!

  31. 2020 April 28 7:41 am
    drdog09 permalink

    “Those of us in the first category (law-abiding) will continue to follow the law…where the law makes sense.”

    Up to a point, but falls apart when the existential threat arises, mostly from those that give two S**** about law. If anything CoVid is showing that the Law is an Ass much of the time. Like for the woman who was arrested for being with her children in a park. Two days later, people were surrounding the cops home in displeasure.

    I suspect there will be electoral blow back for certain government actors. Eg Whitmer.

  32. 2020 April 28 7:46 am
    drdog09 permalink

    Of course — — But it was never about the total deaths but the RATE of deaths that caused all the panic.

  33. 2020 April 28 7:58 am
    bc3b permalink

    fight on #30-

    Istarted losing faith in FNC during the 2008 election. I have hardly watched it for the last six years.

  34. 2020 April 28 8:40 am
    justrand permalink

    bc3b, we watch Tucker at night, and I watch Fox & Friends in the morning sometimes. Nothing else.

  35. 2020 April 28 9:12 am
    justrand permalink

    The government ALWAYS moves the goalposts. Trump is actually trying to encourage opening the country, but many of the petty dictators at the State and Local level are LOVING their POWER, and they want to hold onto it as long as possible.

  36. 2020 April 28 9:56 am
    drdog09 permalink

    “…. many of the petty dictators at the State and Local level are LOVING their POWER, and they want to hold onto it as long as possible.”

    Yes indeed they are. Wait till they get their quarterly tax receipts tally and find there is NO money to run the local government. Only THEN will the light bulb go off.

  37. 2020 April 28 10:05 am
    justrand permalink

    drdog, “Wait till they get their quarterly tax receipts tally and find there is NO money to run the local government.

    Ah, but that is when plan “P” (for “Pelosi”) kicks in! They are counting on Nancy delivering the BILLIONS to bail them, and their bloated pension funds, out! AND, the media will, of course, back them! Ads will be run (probably already filmed) showing the poor local and State facilities that the Democrats would LOVE to open up…but the mean old Republicans won’t grant the money.

  38. 2020 April 28 10:08 am
    Wylie E. Coyote permalink

    #33 yeah, no kidding and Amen!

    The initial scientific testing from China & the Princess Cruise ship said the Coronavirus’ preferred environment to infect people were “enclosed spaces where people are trapped for several hours”……these reports were in the public domain for all to see from the get-go………they were listed in the Ginn report back in March that everybody trashed:

    Hello! Sound exactly like the House Arrest aka lockdown most place did!


    Or, more likely, this was deliberate and NEVER about health to begin with……

  39. 2020 April 28 12:14 pm
    drdog09 permalink


    That certainly is Coma Coumo and IceCream Pelosi plan of action. Only problem is the Feds really have no money either.

  40. 2020 April 28 12:28 pm
    justrand permalink

    Joe Biden said today that America ==> “Needs More ‘Economic Intercourse”

    I dunno…I think America’s economy is getting screwed enough.

  41. 2020 April 28 12:42 pm
    drdog09 permalink


    I have to LoL or I would CryCry.

  42. 2020 April 28 3:23 pm
    justrand permalink

    I just read that Jeff Flake says he won’t vote for Trump. Took me a minute to remember who the hell Flake was…or used to be…but less than that to remember his name says it all: “FLAKE”

  43. 2020 April 28 4:43 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    Flynn’s former lawyers — — Ought to be in the cell with him if he does go to jail just on the principle of misfeasance.

  44. 2020 April 28 7:31 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

  45. 2020 April 28 7:41 pm
    Wylie E. Coyote permalink

    CBS New York: ‘People Have No Food, People Are Talking About Suicide’

    The control freaks are about to lose control.

    And this:

    – Tyson chairman John Tyson said “millions of pounds of meat will disappear” as meat processing plants are forced to close.

    – Tyson said closing slaughterhouses could lead to food shortages and force farmers to kill “millions of animals” that go unsold as the supply chain breaks down.

  46. 2020 April 28 8:41 pm
    drdog09 permalink


    Look at the bright side, most are probably Libs. A bad thought I know.

    We have discussed it any times. Have enough food on hand to last at least 6mos. Enough cash to cover 3mos bills minimum. That is the basics to be prepared in a emergency.

  47. 2020 April 28 8:42 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    Trump has ordered some meat packing plants to stay open.
    (Some Dems extremely angry)
    And Trump did something to protect the companies too. Guaranteeing protection from liability i think

    Meanwhile the meat shortage is on hold for now

  48. 2020 April 28 11:48 pm
    Wylie E. Coyote permalink

    #49 Thank the Good Lord we don’t have one of those Stalinists in the WH like Gov Homo or half-Whitmer….

    The idiot PM in Canada wants to keep them locked up for 18 months…..sheeeesh

  49. 2020 April 29 12:03 am

    Interest post OP!
    8 – “I couldn’t believe it,” she added. “On what planet am I competing with unemployment?” – sadly this one at the moment. sigh.

    10 – Nobody seems the care, least of all those that would be screaming to the rooftops if something even unsubstantiated was alleged the other way, hell even those who say it did happen and she spoke about it at the time are still voting for the guy.

    22 – All this mask shit is a bad joke imho, failure theater like the tsa.

    26 – lol, up to his eyeballs in this shit I bet.

    32 – I hope so for people like here, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

    36 – Yup. Too good a crisis to let go to waste for them. Fucking pathetic, as are us the people who are letting it happen.

    37 – Uncle Sam give me bailout or your are evil racist yada yada!! Already talks of it and cocaine mitch is a-ok with it.

    39 – The stupidity all around in nearly every corner is frankly just numbing at this point.

    44 – 3-1/2 years later and the case is still dragging on, flipping travesty of justice, and now the docs which first never existed…then existed but you can’t have them only a summary, are now finally getting to the defense. Disgusting joke.

    46 – First laugh I’ve had in days. lol Thanks!

    47 – CBS-NY — reap what you sowed fkers. BTW it’s why by exec order potus just made all meat processing and packing plants essential.

    50 – The Canadians need to pink mist that fker if that’s what he has in mind, as we should anyone trying to do the same here. We can start with President Fauci,Whitmer, and couple others not even pretending their not using this to enact ‘change’.

    Apologies for my absence I tuned mostly out for a couple weeks, I couldn’t take the daily about of stupid coming from everywhere in every direction. That it’s still going on is … beyond depressing.

  50. 2020 April 29 6:32 am
    JimNorCal permalink

    Nice to see you. Glad that meme made you crack a smile.
    I recall back when a slogan went around all Latin-ish but fake.
    Something like Illegitimati Non Carborundum.
    “Don’t let the b*stards grind you down”

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