US Set to Reshore Manufacturing (from China)?
Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 China’s economy has exploded. China has manipulated trade and tariffs to its advantage. With low wages and protective tariffs, China has been able to establish a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $419.2 billion in 2018, almost double what it was in 2009..
In the 1960s and 1970s the Japanese took control of the consumer electronics market through systematic product dumping backed by the Japanese government. Brands like Sony and Panasonic drove Zenith and Magnavox out of business. Today Japanese and US televisions, computers and cell phones are likely manufactured in China. WalMart is a leading retailer for Chinese products. China has become a leading producer of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment. In recent years General Electric has shifted the manufacture of x-ray and medical scanning devices from the US to China,
As drdog09 wrote last week, China will be one of the biggest losers in the coronavirus pandemic. The past six months has cast an unfavorable spotlight on China. It has emphasizes what people paying attention have long known – the Chinese cannot be trusted. They want to expand their control of the world at the expense of other countries. Depending on China to supply necessary commodities is extremely dangerous.
Will the Chinese deceitful actions during the coronavirus pandemic reverse China’s 20 years of economic growth and trade surpluses?
The United States is set to reshore substantial manufacturing capacity as China’s demographic time bomb will soon explode, pushing wages higher as retirees spend down their savings.
Despite China’s labor force tripling from 341 million in 1950 to a peak at just over 1 billion in 2010, the nation’s old-age “dependency ratio” (ratio of population aged 65+ per 100 worker population aged 20 to 64) rose from 8.7 percent to only 12.4 percent, according to a report by China research firm Enodo Economics. As a result, China enjoyed six decades of high worker growth and modest cost burdens for retirement and healthcare.
Bringing China’s massive labor force into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 created an industrial dynamo that saw its share of global manufacturing value-added leap from 11 percent in 2005 to 25 percent by 2018. The biggest WTO member loser was the United States, that saw its global share plunge from 20 percent in 2005 to 15 percent by 2018, according to data from Enodo Economics.
China’s labor force passed 1 billion in 2010 and remained stable at that level over the last decade. The report found the WTO spike in labor demand and stalling labor growth caused average Chinese worker wages to increase by 326.6 percent from 2005 to 2017; about ten times faster than the 34.3 percent wage growth for the average American worker in the same time period.
Due to the aging population, China’s labor force is set to shrivel by about 35 million per year over for the next three decades. The “dependency ratio” will jump from 18.5 percent in 2020; to 27.6 percent in 2030; to 43 percent in 2040; and 50.6 percent in 2050, according to Enodo Economics.
China’s state-owned banks were able to internally fund the WTO boom at low interest rates because Chinese workers’ household savings rate soared from 36.5 percent in 2000 to peak at 51.7 percent in 2010. But due to an increasing percentage of retirees living off savings, the savings rate fell to 46.6 percent in 2018 and is continuing to fall fast.China claimed in 2009 that it could expand manufacturing despite the end of the labor force expansion through retraining low-skilled workers to perform knowledge-intensive tasks. But China reported in 2018 that its workforce was mostly unskilled, with just 21 percent classified as “skilled” and only 7 percent classified as “highly-skilled.”
Due to the demographic time bomb, the number of Chinese students attending college fell from 22.4 million in 2010 to 15.6 million in 2018. The current number of “entering” college students fell from 8.7 million to 5.6 million in the same time period, according to Enodo Economics.
Not only are the number of Chinese college students declining, but 34.8 percent of graduates’ state that their “ideal job” is working for the Communist Party or a government organization, despite only 8 percent of job availability. About 45.2 percent of available jobs are private enterprises, but only 10.3 percent of college graduates call such a job “ideal,” according to a survey by JP Morgan, Tsinghua University and Fudan University.
Enodo Economics forecasts that China is at greatest risk for losing jobs where companies can increase profit margins by building highly automated factories that can benefit from American workers’ higher productvity working with collaborative robots (cobots).
A survey by Deloitte and the Manufacturing Institute found that among the top 400 American manufacturers, 70 percent are either creating or expanding their U.S. training programs. These manufacturers fear a 2.4 million shortfall by 2028 of American workers with the skills needed for the Fourth Industrial Revolution “that will transform the world of work through artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, automation, analytics, and the Internet of Things.”
Enodo Economics forecasts the most likely industries to reshore back to the United States include automobiles; electrical machinery; wood and grass product; chemical fiber; chemical material and product; transportation equipment; rubber and plastics; pharmaceuticals; and non-metallic mineral product.
Hat tip: epochtimes.com
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One of the Presidents key opponents in reducing Chinese imports into the US has been the Thomas Donohue and the US Chamber of Commerce. In the past 20 years the US Chamber of Commerce has demonstrated that it is the enemy of the American people, particularly working class Americans.
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Good piece there BC. The worker shift is in part due to the China 1 child policy.
We, the US, have a problem too. About 15% of our population is untrainable. We some how have to come up with a solution to that one.
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Not that I approve but it does show that the frustration level is in the red line — https://www.zerohedge.com/health/watch-texas-revelers-throw-park-ranger-lake-over-social-distancing-enforcement
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And the Democrats are working non-stop to increase that percentage through mass immigration from third world countries.
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Well something good did come out of the CoVid mess — https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/apr/09/coronavirus-us-newspapers-impact — print to be buried.
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A Michael Moore film I might actually enjoy — https://www.zerohedge.com/health/leftists-fume-michael-moore-turns-fraudulent-green-movement-latest-movie
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St. Louis snitch upset when her name is posted on social media:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYhvc_86HsI
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Stories like this should cause Americans to avoid Chinese products:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/illinois-blows-17m-on-shoddy-face-masks-from-china/
https://news.yahoo.com/u-k-bought-250-ventilators-083044209.html
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Citizens ending lockdowns in spite of government objections:
https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/03/coronavirus-michigan-gretchen-whitmer-lockdown/
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Pompeo – enormous evidence coronavirus came from Wuhan lab:
https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/03/mike-pompeo-evidence-coronavirus-wuhan-lab/
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DHS – China lied about coronavirus to hoard medical supplies:
https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/03/china-lied-coronavirus-medical-supplies-dhs-report/
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Worse the whole CoVid thing is approaching hoax territory. It looks like the death rates are only marginally worse than normal flu deaths.
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Hope everyone is safe and things are going well. I check in but haven’t posted much and want you to know I continue to read posts. And check out links that everyone posts.
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MSDNC host chris hayes is being eaten by the left — https://thehill.com/homenews/media/495448-firechrishayes-trends-after-msnbc-host-covers-biden-sexual-assault-allegations — Eventually even the Left will reach the conclusion that the smallest minority of all is the individual. Something that the Right has known all along.
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These came in email. I haven’t actually checked them, but no reason to think they’re fake LOL
“For every action there is an equal but opposite government program.”
-Ambrose Bierce
“We are now so stultified in our thinking and so priggish in our expressions that it becomes unavoidably offensive to tell the truth” –Johann Georg Hamann
“As was said long afterward, the founders of the Republic in general, whether Federalist or Republican, feared democracy more than they feared original sin” –Charles A. and Mary Beard
“Capitalism is the uneven distribution of wealth, and socialism the even distribution of poverty.” –Winston Churchill
‘This Guy Is Such a Total Pussy — It’s Stunning’ – Lt.Col. Ralph Peters talking about Obama
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“Will the Chinese deceitful actions during the coronavirus pandemic reverse China’s 20 years of economic growth and trade surpluses?”
—
I hope so, but I doubt it.
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“the whole CoVid thing is approaching hoax territory”
Dear God, help us to do Your will and let this become apparent to our neighbors
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10 – That makes me start doubting it now, shame our IC has zero credibility.
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Say what you will about the girls who accused the women in Salem of being “WITCHES!!”, but at least they did it openly!
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Don Shula, RIP, 90.
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J Crew Files for Bankruptcy:
https://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/update-1-j-crew-files-for-bankruptcy-as-preppy-retailer-succumbs-to-covid-19-fallout
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Lie-A-watha leads CBS poll of likely Democrats as VP nominee:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-biden-vice-president-cbs-news-poll/
“Gretch the Wretch” tied for last with Susan Rice, 31 points behind Stacey Abrams.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-biden-vice-president-cbs-news-poll/
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22 BC
Poll is D+9 and RV
…And Biden leads by 6
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VA Gov Northam goes shopping? With his mask!
https://mobile.twitter.com/nicopitney/status/1256778794532143104
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Virginia to start “double counting” coronavirus cases:
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/virginia-begin-double-counting-positive-coronavirus-cases
That state has become a real mess.
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Did you know that the CDC has cancelled the “socialist distancing” guidelines?
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/29/trump-says-extend-social-distancing-guidelines/111642082/
You would think that this is good news being shouted everywhere by our “honest” (sarc) MSM, right?
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AOC’s congressional district leads the country in confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths:
https://news.yahoo.com/aoc-existential-crises-her-district-184508593.html?guccounter=1
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“CDC has cancelled the “socialist distancing” guidelines”
Seems to be less there than meets the eye.
At most, PDJT has hit the issue back across the net to the Dem Govs.
Nothing has actually happened.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/wicked-nevertrump-group-releases-mourning-america-trash-president-trump-blaming-worst-economy/
Trump needs to start playing offense.
Especially with Mooochelle VP
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WE the royal sense also need to start playing offense. Churches, businesses, et.al. need to start filing federal civil rights cases against these local tyrants.
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I’ve heard that some coronavirus “cause of death” classifications are dubious.
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