Its a Base Election Folks

2020 October 20
tags:
by drdog09

And its not favoring the Democrats as it should –

All figures Gallup organization.

Simple fact of the matter is the Democratic base advantage is shrinking. The Dims have historically held a +10-12pt advantage over the GOPers. That is down to +3 which ironically is well within the historical error rate of most mainline polling organizations.

So if one considers party affiliation is a dead heat this election then what is the strategy?

  • Steal those votes!
    • For Dims that means theft, subterfuge and suppression.
    • For Republicans it means stealing voters away from Dims and grabbing independents.
  • Most of the mythical Independent have already made up their minds this time around. So shore up what you have from that pool best you can. Not so great for the Dims with the Hunter Biden revelations leaking out.
  • Shift the minority vote if you are a GOPer. 50c disaffection with the Biden tax plan might spell trouble for the Dims. The ’Hood is not as solid this cycle for the Dims.
  • Ignore the college vote. Its a location-concentric opportunity that thanks to CoVid is nonexistent. Most of the colleges are online and Sam or Suzie are in Mamma’s house their vote washed out with the general population or just not interested.
  • Ground game. Not much different from any other cycle. But Biden’s team seems to have decided to not utilize it much.

And one for the team – Has anybody seen a for-Trump advert using the Hunter Biden revelations? So far I have not.

70 Responses leave one →
  1. 2020 October 20 6:23 am
    [1]
    Eph permalink

    NC projected vote share (updated to account for earlying voting in NC and using margin of error applied):

    Donald Trump – 2,410,000
    Joe Biden – 2,039,000

    This is outside the worst possible margin of error of 175k votes.

    @RealAPolitics

  2. 2020 October 20 6:58 am
    [2]
    justrand permalink

    The Dems are counting on massive fraud, and their media buddies will use the ludicrous polls to claim the rigged election was “fair”

    P.s. “Justice” Robert’s granted Pennsylvania Dems 3 more fraud days today

  3. 2020 October 20 8:10 am
    [3]
    mpt permalink

    Very interesting article on Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group and why his is the only polling organization that shows Trump with a likely win this election.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

    He attributes his success in 2016 to efforts to obtain large sample sizes, emphasize anonymity, minimize the number of questions asked, and weeding out people too eager to answer the polls which skews the results (ie. the tendency for anti-Trump Republicans being much more willing answer polls than pro-Trump Republicans).

  4. 2020 October 20 8:13 am
    [4]
    mpt permalink

    P.s. “Justice” Robert’s granted Pennsylvania Dems 3 more fraud days today

    Anyone know the detail of this? Do the ballots have to be post marked on or before Nov 3rd? I read somewhere that a ballot received without a post mark is assumed to be on-time for counting purposes. If true, this would concede Pennsylvania to the Dems.

  5. 2020 October 20 8:19 am
    [5]
    fight on permalink

    MPT #4
    Read on another blog that post mark before 11\3 is not required. Roberts f’ed us again.
    Agree PA is lost unless rural areas come out beyond the margin of fraud.

  6. 2020 October 20 8:55 am
    [6]
    Eph permalink

    “I told everyone about Sumter County, Florida (The Villages). What is the GOP’s in-person early voting margin there this morning? 67-20.”

    @Cotto/Gottfried

  7. 2020 October 20 8:57 am
    [7]

    Mole roberts was hiding behind kennedy’s skirts,, and let him do the dirty work. With kennedy gone roberts now has to sh0w his true colors.

  8. 2020 October 20 9:07 am
    [8]
    Eph permalink

    In early voting on day 2 in FL—JUST from 8:00 am to 11:00 am,
    Rep 47,942
    Dem 37,917
    Una/Other 16,993

    Rs knocked 10,000 off the D lead in three hours. Now the Ds need 660,000.

    Larry Schweikert

  9. 2020 October 20 9:42 am
    [9]
    Eph permalink

  10. 2020 October 20 9:55 am
    [10]
    drdog09 permalink

    9,

    Why do we let sleazeballs like this walk the earth? That and Romania deserved better. They were F’d by their own countrymen and had one of the roughest times of the Eastern bloc. Beautiful country too.

  11. 2020 October 20 9:57 am
    [11]
    drdog09 permalink

    What the heck…..

  12. 2020 October 20 10:19 am
    [12]
    Eph permalink

    IBD/TIPP

    Hiden 48
    Drumpf 46

    Was +9 about 10 days ago

    CYA big time

  13. 2020 October 20 10:58 am
    [13]
    drdog09 permalink

    12,

    That national or a particular State?

  14. 2020 October 20 11:18 am
    [14]
    drdog09 permalink

    By the way I just heard on the interwebs that conservatives are 5 times likely to lie about whom they are voting for than liberals. 5x, man that has to play havoc with the polling data.

  15. 2020 October 20 11:19 am
    [15]
    JimNorCal permalink

    “Its a Base Election”

    Here in CA, Dems depend on 2 categories for their base. Amped up Progs who are passionate but stupid and self-deceiving. Secondly,low-info, unmotivated voters who don’t know much, don’t reason critically and are easily swayed by emotion and social pressure.
    CA Dems have maximized their base turnout by mailing ballots to everyone, ballots are postage free, there are temporary metal drop-boxes at libraries, schools and city halls, etc. Therefore anonymous, easy ballot return is maximized.
    That’s not even talking about fraud.

  16. 2020 October 20 11:21 am
    [16]
    JimNorCal permalink

    “conservatives are 5 times more likely to lie about whom they are voting”

    I bet there are plenty like me, too: I don’t pick up the phone for unknown numbers and I don’t participate in polling.

  17. 2020 October 20 11:23 am
    [17]
    JimNorCal permalink

    On the topic of polls and questionnaires, the GOP is always happy to report that attendees at Trump rallies are xx% Dems, xx% black/hispanic, xx% never voted in an election, etc.
    I would bet cash money that a lot of the questionnaire answers are … questionable LOL

  18. 2020 October 20 11:36 am
    [18]
    Eph permalink

    13 DR

    National poll

  19. 2020 October 20 11:37 am
    [19]
    Eph permalink

    14 DR

    I do all the time

  20. 2020 October 20 11:41 am
    [20]
    bc3b permalink

    drdog09 #11 –

    t will be interesting seeing if Jeffrey Toobin can survive this. He previously knocked up Jeff Greenfield’s daughter while married to another woman, denied he was the father until DNA tests proved otherwise. Then he refused to pay child support until she sued him.

    He is a real scumbag.

  21. 2020 October 20 11:43 am
    [21]
    Eph permalink

    ACB vote on October 26th

    Colorado trending red.

    Oh my!

  22. 2020 October 20 11:52 am
    [22]
    drdog09 permalink

    Trump capturing CO would almost make up for not taking WI or MN.

  23. 2020 October 20 11:54 am
    [23]
    drdog09 permalink

    I am going to do it early this year.

    I am taking over/under that Dims say “We did not get our message out” should Trump win again.

    80/20 my guess.

  24. 2020 October 20 11:56 am
    [24]
    JimNorCal permalink

    “Colorado trending red”
    Let’s hope! 🙂 🙂
    However, I got an message from The King that some big Dem PACs have stopped running ads in the CO Senate race. Implication is that Gardner is losing, Hickenlooper doesn’t need more help.
    Do we think Gardner would lose while Trump won?

  25. 2020 October 20 12:50 pm
    [25]
    Eph permalink

    24 Jim,

    Yes.

    And Trump doesnt have to win CO.

    Like NV and NM he has make Hiden get on a plane to defend those states. Followed by a 24 or 48 hour lid.

    Either way Trump wins

  26. 2020 October 20 12:50 pm
    [26]
    drdog09 permalink

  27. 2020 October 20 12:53 pm
    [27]
    Eph permalink

    Nearly 80% of the Dems VBM lead is coming from Allegheny, Philadelphia, Chester, and Montgomery counties alone.

    @RedEagle

  28. 2020 October 20 12:58 pm
    [28]
    Eph permalink

    AZ Senate
    McSally +1

    (I should have never decided to troll Twitter, non stop updates)

  29. 2020 October 20 1:19 pm
    [29]
    drdog09 permalink

    27,

    Dim strong holds. There it will be ‘by what margin’. The rest of the counties will probably be red.

    By the way WaPo is getting nervous — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-biden-clinton-election-dejavu/2020/10/18/808e8620-0fb2-11eb-8074-0e943a91bf08_story.html

  30. 2020 October 20 1:26 pm
    [30]
    drdog09 permalink

  31. 2020 October 20 1:30 pm
    [31]
    drdog09 permalink

  32. 2020 October 20 3:58 pm
    [32]
    Eph permalink

    RAS is one angry drunk

    Stay away! Stay far away!!!

  33. 2020 October 20 4:07 pm
    [33]
    Eph permalink

    Ohio early voting is R+7. Not sure how Rasmussen has Biden leading in early voting by 27 pts.

    @Barnes_Law @Peoples_Pundit

    (Rumor is RAS got hacked)

  34. 2020 October 20 4:24 pm
    [34]
    drdog09 permalink

    Eph,

    If its of interest to you. Viva Frei and Robert Barnes have a 2hr live session every Sunday @6pm central. Its always informative and Barnes knows the players in the Fed Dist court system pretty well.

    Like this tidbit. The comp tech that had Hunter Biden’s laptop knew he was in deep do. Once the laptop had been classed as abandoned property (depending on state) what was on that laptop, child porn and all was now HIS property. The tech was smart enough to know to have a backup plan since the FBI was doing nothing with it. Giuliani’s lawyer was his proxy in the event of an inquiry by the feds.

  35. 2020 October 20 4:44 pm
    [35]
    drdog09 permalink

    “BREAKING: Federal law enforcement says Hunter Biden emails are ‘authentic’—FBI in possession of laptop” — https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-federal-law-enforcement-confirms-hunter-biden-emails-are-authentic — All well and good FBI but what were you doing for approximately 8months with the informaiton, being ZoomDicks again???

  36. 2020 October 20 4:48 pm
    [36]
    drdog09 permalink

    Chinese now have food shortages — https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/food-shortages-hit-china-there-notenough-fresh-food-go-around — You should have been buying and stocking since CoVid hit ‘cuz prices are about to skyrocket. CCP will pay any price to forestall food riots and revolution.

  37. 2020 October 20 5:09 pm
    [37]
    Eph permalink

    Trump is sensational tonight

    Goodness gracious

  38. 2020 October 20 5:20 pm
    [38]

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/developing-hunter-bidens-associate-bevan-cooney-shared-biden-emails-removed-prison-oregon/

    In advance: Bevan Cooney did not kill himself.

    37 – As he was yesterday afternoon and evening…. too bad scotus has fucked us in PA. Now I know why mitch didn’t want to get ACB overwith stat, so she couldn’t rule on any of these last minute cases. scumbags.

  39. 2020 October 20 5:22 pm
    [39]

    28 – I will be uttter amazed if she and the other useless dipshit in NC hang on.

  40. 2020 October 20 5:23 pm
    [40]

    24 – Colo like VA is now fools gold.

  41. 2020 October 20 5:29 pm
    [41]

    20 – As if jerking off during meetings didn’t already highlight his scumbag creds. His excuse wasn’t even.. I thought I had unjoined the call etc… it was just that he thought he was muted and had turned off the video, not that he was off the conference. specially kind of duchebag… but then CNN likes special folks like him.

    17 – As would i.

    5 – Toast, they just completely manufacture what they need, and will since they don’t even need the pitney bowes machines (not that it was a problem) for the backdated postal marks.

    1 – Adjust for worst possible margin of fraud in addition to the error margin now. 😉

  42. 2020 October 20 5:33 pm
    [42]

    9 –
    “Giuliani and Trump have provided no evidence, and no proof has emerged of any wrongdoing by Hunter or his father.”

    More nbclies.

  43. 2020 October 20 5:44 pm
    [43]

    On the prison move, people are saying witsec…. I doubt it.
    If anything it’s just shifting him around so that the few investigative journalists left in the nation can’t talk or have contact with him for the next 3 weeks.
    FIB on the obscure, delay, and coverup case, as usual.

  44. 2020 October 20 5:47 pm
    [44]

    136k for the erie RSBN rally stream alone.. not counting the 4 or 5 all the others (another 150k among them).

    I think that’s a new RSBN record.

  45. 2020 October 20 5:51 pm
    [45]
    bc3b permalink

    The rest of the country has become so bad that Detroit doesn’t even rate a mention these days:

    https://babylonbee.com/news/check-out-these-eight-beautiful-travel-posters-for-americas-democrat-controlled-cities

  46. 2020 October 20 6:03 pm
    [46]
    Eph permalink

    44

    What difference does it make?

    Biden +18

  47. 2020 October 20 6:13 pm
    [47]
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    I just saw a CNN poll that said Biden +31!!!! #freeToobin

  48. 2020 October 20 6:20 pm
    [48]
    gnqanq permalink

    drdog – #36 – wonder why China is having issues?

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/09/22/pompeo-at-values-voter-summit-communist-china-cracking-down-on-christians-seeking-to-rewrite-bible/

    U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blasted the atheist communist party in China during the virtual Values Voter Summit 2020 on Tuesday for persecuting Christians and trying to rewrite the Bible to adapt the Christian doctrine to Chinese society.

    And what has happened to China since September. Covid-19 came out in December. Locusts of biblical scale have decimated crops in China. They have had disease break out. They have had floods of biblical level hit the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. Typhons have been hitting China one after another (look at Youtube to see the devastation) destroying their crops (China is in need of Rice, Soy and Corn). fact – China was not going to buy food (soy in particular) from the U.S. because of the trade issue, BUT had to turn around and buy from us.

    Revelation 22: 18-19

    18 I testify to everyone who hears the words of the prophecy of this book: if anyone adds to them, God will add to him the plagues which are written in this book; 19 and if anyone takes away from the words of the book of this prophecy, God will take away his part from the tree of life and [i]from the holy city, which are written in this book.

  49. 2020 October 20 6:43 pm
    [49]
    Eph permalink

    47 Ghost

    LMAO!

    The pro aborts from NY/NJ should get a laugh

  50. 2020 October 20 6:43 pm
    [50]
    Eph permalink

    I realize post 49 makes no sense

    Tis the season!

  51. 2020 October 20 6:48 pm
    [51]
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    I laughed at your LMAO…. and yes….. the pro-aborts does make sense….. kinda. #ToobinornotToobin

  52. 2020 October 20 7:12 pm
    [52]
    Eph permalink

    Trump could win WI by 3-4 points.

    Too lazy to post details

  53. 2020 October 20 7:14 pm
    [53]
    Eph permalink

    Minnesota has gone from tossup to tilt republican. The early voting data looks like garbage for democrats in the Suburbs of Minneapolis.

    @RealAPolitics

  54. 2020 October 20 7:17 pm
    [54]
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    The Rust Belt sans PA (possibly) will go to DJT. He will also carry NV and AZ. Barrett will be confirmed on the bitch’s birthday (10/26 Happy Birthday Hil!!!!) There is still time to bring ANOTHER lawsuit regarding PA to the SCOTUS and have ACB rule with the other 8 to garner a 5-4 vote on PA election laws according to multiple sources. I don’t think they’ll need it as DJT in PA will be far ahead of any cheating shenanigans pulled ….. just sayin’.

  55. 2020 October 20 7:18 pm
    [55]
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    The Good Lord still has a soft spot for the US and Israel.

  56. 2020 October 20 8:04 pm
    [56]

    46 – Fair point! Biden +52 though. 😉
    50 – ?? lol
    54 – Damn you’re optimistic (and it’s a good thing mostly), though I don’t see how scotus takes a another pa cases on the same issue given it already ruled, and doing so in the final 4-5 days before the election?

  57. 2020 October 20 8:06 pm
    [57]

    53 – I’ll believe it when I see it in the early morning hours following election day, lots of info warfare going on atm.

  58. 2020 October 20 8:20 pm
    [58]
    Eph permalink

    57

    Our side finally grows a pair.
    Even if its bullshit
    Match game

  59. 2020 October 20 8:23 pm
    [59]
    Eph permalink

    PENNSYLVANIA
    Biden 49% (+2)
    Trump 47%

    @ChangePolls/@CNBC, LV, 10/16-19

    NBC poll… LMAO

  60. 2020 October 20 8:25 pm
    [60]
    Eph permalink

    So da Yuts coming out in NV at 4.2% when they need to be out at +30%.

    @LarrySchweikert

  61. 2020 October 20 8:40 pm
    [61]
    JimNorCal permalink

    KH, 56, yeah there is a WORLD of difference between Eph and that Eyore fellow. 🙂 🙂

    I can believe that the MN Dem vote is somewhat tattered … colleges closed, urban centers smoking ruins, rampant crime in the nearby suburbs, homeless camps growing, police bottled up in their precinct strongpoints, etc.

    But I have no data, just those perceptions. I’m sure CNN and NBC can find Likely Dem Voters by teh bushel to prove their point.

  62. 2020 October 20 8:51 pm
    [62]
    JimNorCal permalink

    I haven’t researched if this is correct or not. But similar cases have been true in the past.

  63. 2020 October 20 8:53 pm
    [63]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Zinger!

  64. 2020 October 20 8:53 pm
    [64]
    drdog09 permalink

    You can believe the polls or not, you can glean the EVs or not but reality is whether Trump wins or losses will be based on a huge cross party avalanche of votes on November 3rd for the man. And quite honestly if that does not happen then we all deserve to be F’d over for our stupidity.

  65. 2020 October 20 8:54 pm
    [65]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Another zinger …

  66. 2020 October 20 8:57 pm
    [66]

    61 – Jim,
    You do bring up and interesting point about colleges and some campusing being closed and in Remote mode……. The fact some of the kids aren’t registering in say MN or NH in addition to them being registered in their home states might be hurting the dems a little on the yuts side.

    It’s possible dem orgs already accounted for this and are having ballots shipped to empty dorm mailboxes and harvested anyway… for those that perhaps were already registered, but I can see how “fresh” registrations from out-of-state students (who shouldn’t be allowed to registered in the first place… but almost always are) might be down this year. I had not figured that into my NH thoughts, where a couple k could be the margin.

    I’d love to see some data around that issue.

    LOL Those pics!

    Dr, – Indeed.

  67. 2020 October 20 9:05 pm
    [67]
    JimNorCal permalink

    DR, agree. We’ve been given a terrific leader. Hey, he has his own shortcomings but wow! He brought a lot of energy to the job. No complaints. If we go down, it’s us not him.

  68. 2020 October 20 9:07 pm
    [68]
    drdog09 permalink

    The meme in 63 absolutely rocks!

  69. 2020 October 20 9:28 pm
    [69]
    Eph permalink

    64 DR

    Amen.

    Only lazy fucks on our side can cost Trump the election.

  70. 2020 October 20 9:33 pm
    [70]

    69 – Why I much rather the impression be that it’s somewhat close but that Trump is down. Don’t need a single mf on our side saying….eh he doesn’t need my vote… because he does, EVERYWHERE, even in CA he needs it in those house races. Otherwise it’s impeachment 2.0x and 3.x even if he wins a second term, not to mention the senate races and the insanity they’ll pull in that body.

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