Not So Easy Eh?

2020 October 21
by drdog09

There was a striking paragraph in a Politico piece on Monday, one that should give pause to the notion that Joe Biden is leading by double digits — or even 18 points, a Drudge Report headline blared — in the 2020 presidential election. “Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos and bracing for a long two weeks,” the inside the Beltway website wrote.

Huh? Isn’t Biden cruising to victory?

The liberal website, created by two former Washington Post reporters, has been pumping out pro-Biden stories for months. Now, apparently, the editors are hedging their bets. “Yet two weeks before Election Day, the unfolding reality of 2020 is that it’s harder than ever to be sure. And Democrats are scrambling to account for the hidden variables that could still sink their nominee — or what you might call the known unknowns,” said the piece, headlined “The hidden factors that could produce a surprise Trump victory.”

Of course, they’re not hidden, or not, at least, for those who are looking — and especially those who saw what happened in 2016. Back then, polls like those from gave Hillary Clinton a 91% chance of winning the White House. She got crushed in the Electoral College, 304-227.

Politico is changing all the parameters the mainstream media has been laying out for months. The MSM once said Democrats were more jazzed about the election than Republicans, but Politico said, “Republican registration has ticked up in key states at the same time Democratic field operations were in hibernation.”

Maybe its not that easy eh?

Further …

“Way more Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans, due to fears of the coronavirus, and it will take days if not weeks to tally these. This means Trump, thanks to Republicans doing almost all of their voting in person, could hold big electoral college and popular vote leads on election night. …

Which I find intriguing. How does one assume that the EMVs are not being counted and tallied by the various SoS’s across the country as they are received? I would not make that assumption. I would not expect the SoS’s to treat EMVs like they do absentee ballots. In many cases, displayed by the MSM, vote totals are already on their boards before even the smallest of counties have submitted returns. If I was a Dim candidate I would be very worried that the vast majority of my total is already in and not expect a moderating increase in my totals as November 3rd wears on.

Simply put the Democratic strategy may in fact backfire. If Trump is having a good night, the Democrats will take an early lead then see that washed away by ever increasing numbers of votes for Trump. If you think about it, were the GOPers of a cheating mind, they would know how many votes to harvest, not the Democrats.

55 Responses leave one →
  1. 2020 October 21 5:34 am
    drdog09 permalink

    If the Dims are thinking the mechanics of EVs will be treated as absentee are they might be in for a shock. Were I a forward thinking SoS I know I only have so many resources for a given effort and I face an avalanche of mail in ballots. Logistically I would be requesting that the county level registrars to be forwarding daily vote totals right up to Nov 3rd to clear the decks. After Nov 3rd I may not have the manpower to do EVs.

    Anybody know anything different?

  2. 2020 October 21 5:42 am
    drdog09 permalink

    A question that needs to be answered — — And if Wray does not have a good answer he should be on an unemployment line.

  3. 2020 October 21 5:46 am
    drdog09 permalink

  4. 2020 October 21 6:01 am
    justrand permalink

    We’re traveling along the Oregon coast, and will have internet only when we stop. That said, yesterday in Grants Pass, Oregon we saw a lot of Trump signs, and very few Biden. Like Kalifornia, however, all of Oregon is “Red” except the big cities and college towns. This year though the Portlandia people have got to be getting tired of feeling like they’re living in Beirut…don’t they?

  5. 2020 October 21 6:30 am

    Spent a month at yachats ore, known then as the pickle puffer center of the state. ( NOT why I spent time there) Good crab fishing at waldport.

  6. 2020 October 21 7:07 am
    JimNorCal permalink


    Facebook Whistleblower Exposes “Hate-Speech Engineering” Group, Staffed With Chinese Nationals; NYPost

  7. 2020 October 21 7:31 am
    bc3b permalink

    JimNorCal #7

    Bbbbbbbut, Chris Wallace said voter fraud doesn’t exist.

  8. 2020 October 21 7:34 am
    bc3b permalink

    drdog09 –

    Thanks for stepping up. It appears we have found a new office about four miles from the old one. Reviewed the lease agreement draft and hopefully will move in early next week.

  9. 2020 October 21 7:54 am
    JimNorCal permalink

    Great news, bc!

  10. 2020 October 21 9:20 am
    drdog09 permalink

    Good deal BC. Hope it all comes together. And glad to be of service.

  11. 2020 October 21 9:32 am
    drdog09 permalink

    Well just finished placing my bets for POTUS. Rather long lines. Took 45min to cast a ballot. Needless to say Big Guy didn’t get my vote. Betcha he is heart broken. 🙂 There were some down ticket races I voted libertarian. Coryn, for example, can’t vote for that a$$hole. Otherwise it was either them or the Democrat and I ain’t voting for the Dim.

    Different voting machines this time. Insert a blank paper then use the touch screens to select offices. At the end it prints out your ballot and a rather large QR code. Then you insert the paper into the reader.

  12. 2020 October 21 9:37 am
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    Huge impromptu MAGA rally across the street from my office this morning. Gallagher’s lawsuit against governor hairdo starts today. 10k is expected. Already 5k + here.

  13. 2020 October 21 9:39 am
    drdog09 permalink

  14. 2020 October 21 9:48 am
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    I saw The NY Times headline this morning that dims are whispering “blue wave” in the hallways…. WHERE?????? In the f’ing echo chambers. God please let it be an absolute red wash over this great country on 11/3!!!!!!!

  15. 2020 October 21 10:53 am
    Eph permalink

    New Mexico??

    From “Freeper” Ravi:
    200,260 of 603,039 Ds have voted (33.2%).
    131,202 of 413,605 Rs have voted (31.7%).

    In-person early voting started full force on Saturday. Needless to say that gap is closing.

  16. 2020 October 21 11:05 am
    Eph permalink

    Projected Arizona



  17. 2020 October 21 11:18 am
    JimNorCal permalink

    I think this is old news to people here but positive trends for Michigan and Texas (a partisan site though)

  18. 2020 October 21 11:19 am
    JimNorCal permalink

    In CA you can attend sports games. But not Disneyland.
    It all depends on the numbers in your county, NOT the safety at your site. Because … science.

  19. 2020 October 21 11:40 am
    fight on permalink

    DR #12 It took me an hour 15. I labored long and hard about my vote in regards to Cornyn. Was going to leave it blank but finally held my nose and voted for him. I then came home and took a shower.

  20. 2020 October 21 12:35 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    21, fight on,

    I just could not do it. I would not have been able to afford the water bill!😃

  21. 2020 October 21 12:47 pm

    21/22 I feel your pain, but the alternative was much worse.

  22. 2020 October 21 1:11 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    Jim, 19,

    I don’t understand why the Dims are saying they are missing a ‘Blue Texas’. Its bright blue for the Dims in all the wrong ways.

  23. 2020 October 21 1:20 pm

    Debate commiss…. not only no FP now… but now discussing banning any discussion of Biden Family corruption topics.

    Can’t believe potus is still going to bother with this joke.

  24. 2020 October 21 1:22 pm

    14 – Another reason it’s a banned topic, the people coming out to confirms parts and pieces of it are wide spread and not nobodies. 🙂

  25. 2020 October 21 1:23 pm

    2 – What they mean is the fib cover-up operation has been on-going since December.

  26. 2020 October 21 1:26 pm

    FL House of Representatives Report Shows More than 40% of Florida’s Covid-19 Deaths May Not Merit that Classification

    But hey, lets not mention that…

  27. 2020 October 21 1:37 pm
    drdog09 permalink


    We know why the commission wants to ban it. But I don’t see how they pull it off. If anything Hunter/Joe is less about the graft and more about the nat sec aspects that the graft implies. Essentially the commission would be suggesting we don’t defend the country.

  28. 2020 October 21 2:26 pm
    Eph permalink

    Rs lead Pinellas IPEV by 3%; trail in Hillsborough by under 2%


    Holy crap… If true

  29. 2020 October 21 3:32 pm
    JimNorCal permalink


    Chanel Rion Confirms — Hunter Biden EXPLICIT SEXUAL photos with underage girl… His 14 year-old niece… – CITIZEN FREE PRESS

  30. 2020 October 21 3:37 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    Get ready to learn that LOTS of media figures were emailing Hunter Biden.
    So that’ll be bubbling up.

  31. 2020 October 21 3:42 pm

    Dem voters, being the dregs of society don’t give a crap what they do, they will still vote dem.

  32. 2020 October 21 4:00 pm

    30 – It takes a village….Da Villages +57R 🙂
    Hillsboro on par with 2016 (granted it’s only ev data not final data).

    32 – Need that data stat, rudy’s piecemeal approach might have worked best in September but we’re past october 15th and on top Joe and press are just ignoring it all, so get all the rest of it out this week, otherwise it doesn’t matter.

    potus rally in NC tonight soon

  33. 2020 October 21 4:01 pm

    LarrySchweikert been on a tweeting tear this afternoon.

    29 – You don’t get it… 🙂 Trump is the bigger threat to their version of the country. 🙂

  34. 2020 October 21 4:19 pm

    Dat crowd is just massive tonight.

    33- Yup you ain’t changing any hard dem votes only a few softies in the supposed “middle”, who maybe don’t bother voting for biden – which is still a win for trump.

  35. 2020 October 21 4:53 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    34, thanks for the link. OMG, he’s hitting on all cylinders 🙂 🙂 🙂

    135,000+ viewers. Four More Years, please America … we need this guy.

  36. 2020 October 21 5:07 pm

    haha…. cause you didn’t talk to me enough or pay me enough Luntz to Hunter:

  37. 2020 October 21 5:13 pm
    Eph permalink

    38. LMAO

    Now we get to see all the dirtbags

  38. 2020 October 21 5:25 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    A sad story, but kinda amazing how this keeps happening. h/t JustOneMinute blog
    ” … a pair of strokes in the early months of 2018 are likely to have ended Keith Jarrett’s career as a public performer. … the use of his left arm and hand have been lost, perhaps permanently. Just learning to pick up a cup again is a challenge. There have been memory issues, too: while trying to play long-familiar bebop tunes with his right hand, he finds he has forgotten them. It seems likely that his solo concert at Carnegie Hall in February 2017, during which he spoke out against a newly elected US president, will turn out to have been his last.”

  39. 2020 October 21 5:32 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    Eph, 30,

    Pinellas is a mix of old folks and middle age. It would tend to skew right.
    Hillsborough is a mix of up and comers and younger crowd. Be a split.

    Bottom line: not surprised.

  40. 2020 October 21 5:36 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    Do someone post this already?
    This one is not being torn down.

    “My Trump vote in 2016 was worth every liberal tear, hate filled diatribe and everything else.”
    Second Giant ‘Trump’ Hollywood-Style Sign Appears in California

  41. 2020 October 21 5:46 pm
    drdog09 permalink


    “29 – You don’t get it… 🙂 Trump is the bigger threat to their version of the country. 🙂”

    Well I sorta do, but I understand your point. But….. How the hell can any debate not include issues of national security? Anybody with a functioning brain cell knows that is a critical topic.

    Here is what the socialists don’t get. Any country that goes socialist also goes aggressive. That would mean:

    * Reinstitutiong the draft.
    * Foreign wars all over the place.
    * Massive military spending.

    Just look at russia, no sooner had the Reds killed the Whites, they went and attacked Poland. They got their ass kicked but still they went aggressive. Same with Cuba. Same as what is going on in south africa internally. Those Millineals have not figured that into their iPhone planner.

  42. 2020 October 21 6:12 pm
    The Ghost of Reason permalink

    Just saw the video of Barry in PA today…. Biden +37 ….. per cnn. #toobinorbust….anut

  43. 2020 October 21 6:14 pm

    “How the hell can any debate not include issues of national security?”

    Because these are not meant to be debates, they’re intended to be Biden commercials, but since they only get 1 take, they can’t have anything discussed that he could screw up on.

    Btw it’s not that I really think “you” didn’t get it, more saying you question was framed in a way that implied the “debate commission” and “moderators” are remotely trying to have some so sort of real discussion. They simply aren’t.

    As for the rest, of course I agree.

  44. 2020 October 21 6:15 pm

    42 I’d not see the second sign, what makes you think it will not be ripped down like the last?

    44 – All 42 people? 🙂

  45. 2020 October 21 6:36 pm
    drdog09 permalink

    Heh — — Trump team does not consider OH a battleground state now. Locked in Trumps grip.

  46. 2020 October 21 8:08 pm
    Eph permalink

    48 DR

    Give me a break.

    The dude looked at early voting results and changed his mind. Way to go out on a limb.

  47. 2020 October 21 8:26 pm
    JimNorCal permalink

    Anecdotal but interesting. Perhaps there will be a minor wave of Dems choosing not to vote. And a few voting for PDJT
    Trump-Hating Bernie Sanders Fan Had a Big Change of Heart

    Bernie sold out. Hillary took over. Kerr didn’t bother to vote.

    He was surprised we elected President Trump.
    There were more surprises for Kerr.

    He wrote, “Then Trump withdrew the US signature from TPP in January 2017. This was a watershed moment for me. When Bernie lost the DNC nomination in 2016 I assumed something like the TPP was guaranteed to pass, and the American people could enjoy a further streamlining of the one way ‘Send our jobs to Asia’ pipeline. Seeing Trump stand up for American jobs shocked me.”

  48. 2020 October 21 8:45 pm

    Moved from white-collar work camp to new facility and solitary…. with only a month to go on jail term. yup they don’t want him talking with anyone.

  49. 2020 October 21 8:48 pm

    47 – Nor should they have to if they’re gonna win, nor did they around this time in 2016 (same with IA back then as I recall each were +4-6 even in some d polls and ended up even bigger wins).

  50. 2020 October 21 9:25 pm
    Eph permalink

    35. KH

    Check out Robert Barnes too

  51. 2020 October 21 10:11 pm

    Anything that goes against desired narratives.
    DNCitter can’t die quick enough.

  52. 2020 October 21 10:13 pm

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