Sitzkrieg

2021 April 10
by drdog09

The situation in in the Ukraine – Russian is similar to the period between the fall of Poland and before the attack on France, the phony war. Phony in the sense that there is really no force on force engagements, merely positioning. What is going on is similar to the The Troubles in Northern Ireland with the Brits, a lot of insurgency attacks on soft targets or individuals.

The Area

What is in question is the Donbass, a region in Eastern Ukraine that is principally ethnic Russian. From a strategic perspective it makes sense that the Russians would be interested in the area as it is a backdoor to the Crimea that they annexed in 2014. Of even greater interest to Russia is the ethnic mix. Russia has a policy to be willing to come to the aid of any ethnic Russian region, part of The Rus ethos. Ironically derived from the old Polish kings that settled in the Kiev region of Ukraine.

To the Ukrainians the area is vital as much of the heavy industry is located in this area. Approximately 16% of the Ukrainian economy was located here. The Ukraine from a diplomatic matter contends that the region was ceded per a 1954 agreement between the two countries during the Khrushchev era.

The Stakes

For Ukraine its simple, it wants its resources back.

For Russia its more complex. Leadership knows that demographically they really only have another decade before human resources become a critical issue to defend the country. Napoleon and Hitler still loom as part of Russian strategic defensive postures. To that end they wish to consolidate the approaches into central Russia. Georgia, Crimea and soon Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania are all at issue as part of that posture.

American Involvement

In full disclosure – I don’t trust the entire Foreign Services staff located in Ukraine. It was clear they were all snakes in the grass during the Trump administration and see no rationale that would have changed their tune.

From the Russian point of view, the US is meddling in affairs not of its concern. There is some validity to the claim. Back during the Reagan-Bush time frame we had clearly telegraphed our lack of interest in the area (Belarus, Ukraine) and essentially lied about it from the beginning.

From an American point of view, NATO would like to see Ukraine as a member. Principal consideration is having a modicum of control of the gas deliveries into Western Europe. Which when you consider that Nord2 pipeline will be online in less than a year and there is already planning for a Southern route thru Turkey and the Med the strategic importance of the right of way control thru Ukraine becomes a moot point.

Regardless we seem to be playing at least a sideline role in the whole affair. Three flights do not constitute engagement, but they do show a preferred sentiment for the current administration to stir up a fight. NATO’s stance for your interest.

The Forces

From the Ukraine:

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Russian Khomchak has said Russia pulling troops to the Ukrainian border is no case a hopeless situation for Ukraine.

“We are really seeing intensified shellings. To say it is a hopeless situation would probably be an exaggeration. Because outside of Ukraine’s borders we’re seeing a buildup of Russian troops moving from different parts of Russia under the guise of military drills. But today their numbers don’t allow saying it’s an imminent threat,” he told a panel show on 1+1 TV on April 8, 2021, as reported by the Ukrainian TSN TV news service.

Khomchak assured the situation is under control, and the Ukrainian military is ready to respond to the escalation both in the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk and Donetsk regions and along the entire Ukrainian-Russian border.

Read more

Here’s the tape:

This is the equivalent of the Baylor Bears taking on Ohio State when Woody Hays was coach.

Russia has moved forces from the Siberian region to bring their alignment along the Donbass border to approximately 85000 strong.

Aims

US:

  • Be a pain in the ass to the Russians.
  • Attempt to extend NATO influence.

Ukraine:

  • Get the Donbass back.
  • Keep the corruption going.
  • Acquire more aid from the US.

Russia:

  • Maintain the pressure using the separatists.
  • Destabilize the Ukrainian political scene.
  • Devalue the pipelines into Europe.

Outcome

From a military perspective its a done deal. The Ukrainians have little chance of defeating the Russians in an all out engagement. Best outcome for them is a stalemate and a ramp down of civil unrest in the region as unlikely as that is. For the US ego and regional security is at stake. The only way for the US to come out on top the Russians must lose big. Any other outcome puts American strategic security agreements at stake worldwide. That is not a good position to be in.

For the Russians, win or lose, they win:

  • They annex the Donbass. A lot of diplomatic chatter but a result very similar to the Georgia campaign.
  • They don’t annex the Donbass but continue separatist support. Its not a loss.
  • Ukraine shuts off the pipeline. Price of Russian gas goes up. 6 months from now its a moot point.
  • Ukraine somehow beats the Russians? Well the infrastructure will be destroyed and not having been annexed saves the Russians the cost of rebuilding it all.
73 Responses leave one →
  1. 2021 April 10 4:02 pm
    [1]
    drdog09 permalink

    Putin is playing a very long game. The oil fields mean little if the pipelines are offline. Who is controlling the pipelines? Russia. And by the by Gazpom IS now in Libya as I predicted. All very smart. The resources are all in politically troubled areas. So do you to try and control an entire land mass or just a stretch of land that the pipe sits on? Which is cheaper, fixing an above ground busted pipe or have to resink a new well?

  2. 2021 April 10 4:10 pm
    [2]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    Russia and China have been previously natural enemies but now they are allying against the USA.

    To me it always would have made sense to have a US-Russia-Japanese alliance against China (plus India), and Japan would have to remilitarize.

  3. 2021 April 10 4:11 pm
    [3]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

  4. 2021 April 10 4:22 pm
    [4]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

  5. 2021 April 10 4:23 pm
    [5]

    None of our business… and that pipeline can be starved from the ru side anyway once NS2 goes online which is not far off. All just a waste of US dollars (any involvement), and needlessly poking in a unwinnable situation…. but hey 10% of what’s being gifted is probably going to the big guy fund so what else is new. UA with the proding of the US is playing a game it can’t afford, and can’t win. Crimea ain’t gonna be given back, period, not while Putin is alive anyway.

    The only “winning” move for UA is not to play.

    Question is why is UA falling for DC’s BS game of trying to walk them into a slaughter, and how the hell does DC see them doing that as some sort of positive for the US – it seems brain dead unless they’re trying to use it as an excuse to something else even more brain dead.

    Personally I don’t see anything popping off big time as it’s suicide for the UA and they must know that.

  6. 2021 April 10 5:04 pm
    [6]
    justrand permalink

    Thank you, drdog! Excellent analysis.

  7. 2021 April 10 5:38 pm
    [7]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

  8. 2021 April 10 5:55 pm
    [9]
    drdog09 permalink

    “… Japan would have to remilitarize.”

    They already have the third largest navy, bigger than China’s by the way. They are working on the other services.

    Russians don’t trust the Japanese. Been that way since the Russo-Japanese war circa 1904.

    edit: I should say ‘blue water navy’. If its everything from a sampan with a SKS mounted on the bow to their aircraft carrier they are still the biggest.

  9. 2021 April 10 5:58 pm
    [10]
    mpt permalink

    Thank you, drdog! Excellent analysis.

    Agreed. Very good analysis.

    It’s been noted by some geopolitical analysts that geopolitics is finally starting to revert to the mean after decades of being disrupted by the Cold War and the US emerging as the sole superpower. That era is finally over we will see these types of squabbles erupting all over the world which was the norm prior to 1945. Russia-Ukraine and China-Taiwan are just two more notable examples of this.

    The thing I’m worried about is how the Biden Administration can screw this up by sticking American interests in places where they are neither welcome nor constructive. Will we be going back to Obama’s red-lines in the sand which our adversaries know are meaningless chest-thumping meant for consumption by the average CNN viewer.

  10. 2021 April 10 6:01 pm
    [11]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

  11. 2021 April 10 6:04 pm
    [12]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    Every site i look at keeps saying north korea has some enormous number of submarines. Wondering what these submarines they supposedly have consist of.

  12. 2021 April 10 6:14 pm
    [13]
    bc3b permalink

    drdog09 – Very interesting. I learned a lot.

    PRP –

    “To me it always would have made sense to have a US-Russia-Japanese alliance against China (plus India), and Japan would have to remilitarize.” Agree. The dishonest media keeps working to convince dumbasses that Russia is more dangerous than the Chi Coms.

  13. 2021 April 10 6:17 pm
    [14]
    drdog09 permalink

    11,

    China has a very large navy but 90% of it is littoral, can’t sortie beyond a 1000km from its own shores. Its part of the reason they built those artificial islands in the south china sea. You don’t see the PLA navy cruising the straits of hormuz but the Japanese have been there as part of a multinational force for nearly 2 decades.

    By the way as a strategy Japan would not need to engage the Chinese directly. They sortie everything that is not a home fleet asset and head for the approaches to the canal and hormuz. They then systematically start sinking anything with a Chinese label or flag. China grinds to a halt within weeks. They have no domestic oil assets.

  14. 2021 April 10 6:18 pm
    [15]
    drdog09 permalink

    13,

    The MSM do that because Russia is an easy sell. People are half convinced just because of the cold war of yore.

  15. 2021 April 10 6:23 pm
    [16]
    mpt permalink

    They (Japan) already have the third largest navy, bigger than China’s by the way.

    Can we naturally assume that Japan and Korea would ultimately align with the United States against an aggressive China? Japanese and Koreans are both racially and culturally are naturally much more closely aligned with China that the US and western world. Especially in the way that collectivism plays a major part in the culture of all three countries. I realize there is some very bad blood between them from the first half of the 20th century, but as they say, blood is ultimately thicker than water.

    Also, let’s face it. US credibility has taken a beating over the last 20 years. If China were to make a move on Taiwan and the US fail to react appropriately, Korea and Japan would both have to read the writing on the wall and see that it may be in their long-term interest to align with China rather than the US.

  16. 2021 April 10 6:28 pm
    [17]
    mpt permalink

    The MSM do that because Russia is an easy sell. People are half convinced just because of the cold war of yore.

    It infuriates me how the MSM can play it both ways and not be called on it. In 2012, it was “The 80’s is calling and wants their foreign policy back.” and then in 2016 it was “Russia collusion, Russia collusion, Russia collusion.”

  17. 2021 April 10 6:40 pm
    [18]
    mpt permalink

    White House considering cash payments to Central Americans to stem migration

    Which would work better? Sending the cash $$$ or BTC?

  18. 2021 April 10 6:46 pm
    [19]
    drdog09 permalink

    “Question is why is UA falling for DC’s BS game of trying to walk them into a slaughter, and how the hell does DC see them doing that as some sort of positive for the US – it seems brain dead unless they’re trying to use it as an excuse to something else even more brain dead.” — KH, 5

    For the Ukranians, they certainly would like more aid, but they would get slaughtered if things went hot.

    For the US. All hands lead back to Wash. DC. I would hazard every Dim on the foreign intelligence committee has been to UA at least once. A nice gig. You make some promises. Aid flows East, Atlantic Council via the UA contingent funnel campaign contributions West. All of Pelosi’s inner circle are getting their 10%. Its enough to make you sick. And of course, remember when Piggy and court were headed overseas and Trump cut them off? Well they had a stop in Kiev planned as part of the junket.

  19. 2021 April 10 6:50 pm
    [20]
    drdog09 permalink

  20. 2021 April 10 7:07 pm
    [21]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    Does he feed them or do the submarines have to catch their own food. Could be where he sends some of his political enemies.

  21. 2021 April 10 7:18 pm
    [22]
    gnqanq permalink

    drdog – thank you, very good.

    Blame this crap on the deep state. Back in the Clinton years, when there was the opportunity to invite (integrate) Russian into the west. A desire that Russia has had going back centuries. No, it was more important by the deep state to keep Russia as the boogie man. Humanity has suffered because of the deep state and its goals.

    I will say this about Navies, whether American, Chinese or Japanese. What is their task or function. In the old days of the cold war, the Function of the American Navy was to keep the sea lanes open. The Russian navy was to interdict the sea lanes. Two different functions. Thus why the American navy had to be bigger.

    Today, I would argue that it is more important for the Chinese to keep the sea lanes open. This is one reason for the new silk road (less dependent on sea lanes).

    If you have been following Japan, they have been taking their Helicopter Aircraft Carriers and out fitting them with F35B Fighter jets. Japan is gearing up to be able to defend themselves. And it is further easier to defend a position than go on the offensive. Usually, one can defend against 2-1, 3-1 or even 4-1.

    And the Chinese navy is TRYING to be a Deep Blue Navy.

  22. 2021 April 10 9:27 pm
    [23]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    Cant wait until insensitive money has to buy an ETF of bitcoin.

    This was the reason why tesla was so bullish right up until the s&p

  23. 2021 April 10 11:25 pm
    [24]

    OT no evac without vac….
    https://beckernews.com/caribbean-volcano-erupts-but-only-those-vaccinated-against-covid-allowed-to-evacuate-cbs-reports-38451/

    2 – “Japan would have to re-militarize” – To the degree possible with-in the law (and lots of wink winking to build things for ‘defense’ cough cough to skit the law) they have been, slowly but consistently over the last 20 years, and it needs to continue because we can’t cover it all in capability, nor cost, not even remotely anymore.

    13 – They’re not necessarily dumb (some are for sure) … they’re just paid off in many cases plain and simple.
    https://www.theepochtimes.com/several-new-york-times-staff-previously-worked-for-ccp-controlled-media-report_3768622.html

    14 – That’s actually changing, and fairly quickly, the speed of ship building that’s going on in CN is impressive, the quality remains to be seen, but on-paper they are pumping out ever more capable ships at an alarming rate. Also the islands particularly 2 of them are just way more cost effective for ADZ enforcement and projection long term than tying up expensive ships for the same purpose, smart of them if they could get away with it, and they have.

    16 – TLDR: We aren’t going to come to TW “full” defense if it happens any time in the near future, JP and SK already know this. Namely because they know as well as we do that the US (not to mention themselves) can’t without taking some significant humiliation\humbling and politically untenable losses if they decide to fully engage to attempt to stop it. They (CN) imho are more than likely gonna buy their way into taking TW one way or another, perhaps even without ever having to fire much of a shot if they can play the game just right, not to mention continuing to infest TW politics in the longer term.

    Aside: An example the good Dr. rightly mentions today most (not all btw) their oil and large amounts of lng flows in via ship which in the context of a regional conflict are a weakness. ~5-years+ from now that will be less, 10-yrs even less so, though still of significance. People talk of important things like NS2, yet gloss over RU ever expanding pipelines to CN, not to mention the other silk related pipelines through the stans, and of course the equally important ones down to the ports in Myramar (who knows what the coup will bring on that front, but $$ talks no matter who is in charge), which while still involve ships avoid the Malacca Straits entirely.

    Also as it relates to attacking tankers\shipping etc brought up, unless you’re gonna start sinking non-CN flagged ships as well (and the eco disasters that come with it, I can hear the wining already) or seizing them you’re gonna run into problems cutting off the supply, that or you’re gonna expand the number of hostile players involved beyond CN. Oh and in the context of say JP doing that, well then it’s a two-way street don’t forget and half your assets are now tied up on escort route duties. Sure you can make a dent in it, but not enough to stop a TW operation unless it drags on for a long ass time in concert with with a significant majority of the globe seriously working together against it (while shafting themselves monetarily in doing so), the latter of which I just don’t see happening the way “the world” is going right now or looks in the near or mid term.

    I suppose things could change, but hey didn’t CN release a ‘plandemic’ across the global last year and the response was a collective yawn, if not an actual “thank you sir!”. I have a hard time believing more than a few are gonna give two shits about Taiwan when the time comes.
    -Some random thoughts, wtf do I really know.

    17 – It’s really amazing.

    19 – What good is temp ‘aid’ if you lose 1/3rd your nation in the process, and it’s only 1/3rd cause there is nothing of value to RU in the other 2/3rds (would just be a drain on them as it always was). Yup yup on everyone feeding feeding at the trough, which is all I really think this is about atm, hype to provide arms at the taxpayer expense while everyone get their piece of the action – “who cares what happens, either way we can make some money off it”.

    22 – Yup. So many opportunities pissed away then, and since over and over again, including the last 5 years, to at least somewhat contain\balance things where RU could have been valuable piece to certain mutually beneficial puzzles, or worst case at least just a competitive neutral. But instead, at nearly every opportunity the exact opposite path was chosen or forced. On silk road initiatives, bingo as already noted.

  24. 2021 April 11 12:54 am
    [26]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    This was an interview from feb 18th on real vision w a swiss hedgefund manager felix zulauf with raoul pal I thought was pretty good
    https://youtu.be/zGc0fM6E3_s

  25. 2021 April 11 4:59 am
    [27]

    Warning incoming wall of text.

    I see in MD legislature overrode the gov’s veto now the following will become law over the next 1-4 years (different parts have different applicable dates):

    -For any youth charged in adult court – Mandatory mins are out the window.
    -Anyone charged while a youth, no matter the crime\court can not be sentenced to life without parole.
    – At least one “get out of jail\reduced sentence” hearings for any one previously convicted of a crime while a minor, and who have served 20 years. Starts this October.

    https://legiscan.com/MD/text/SB494/id/2355540/Maryland-2021-SB494-Enrolled.pdf

    Not sure how welll those will play out

    – No-knocks Warrants now need supervisory and the states’ atty office sign-off, and unless exigent circumstances (They’ll drive a truck though this still probably) can ONLY be executed between 8am-7pm.

    -Warrants for such much explain in detail the justification for such no-knocking, along with a list of all known possible other residents, pets, and any known disabilities related to any of them and details of investigatory things justifying no-knocking.

    -Cleans up some other reporting\disclosure issues on warrants.
    – Said warrants are void after 10 days.
    – Clarity now that “No-knocks” still come with requirement to leave copy of such search warrants with a resident or left behind at the scene if no one was present.
    – No more participating in search warrants (no knock or otherwise) unless in clearly identifiable police uniform, with identifiable badge, id#, and name tag.
    – Those involved executing search warrants (no knock or otherwise) must use body cams starting july 2022.
    – When not doing no-knocks, all police involved with serving a search warrant must give a bare minimum of at least 20 seconds after clearly announcing themselves for someone to respond before any attempt is made to enter the residence. (I can’t believe it’s so low)
    – Absent exigent circumstances any use of flashbangs, stun grenades\distractions,or similar military style devices are now against the law when serving search warrants.

    -Also Best I can tell it allows slightly more access to performance records of popo by the public, particularly by oversight agencies, but also the public, popo as in the past will be notified when such occurs, but after the fact, and custodians are no longer allowed to say who requested a peek at their records.

    – Some additional reporting requirement to every LEO agency in the state accounting for some stats all warrants served in the prior year. If they don’t comply they will get a letter asking for compliance, and then after that a referral to some legislative committee who will do nothing.

    https://legiscan.com/MD/text/SB178/id/2358886/Maryland-2021-SB178-Enrolled.pdf

    Most all of that seems common sense no sure why it was veto’d.

    -Body cams mandated for officers who interact with public on daily basis, also must include feature where any activation of recording by the officer also includes 60seconds of a\v prior to the record button being pressed (meaning like dvr it’s always recording at least the last 60second regardless of it being in record mode).

    – No part of the law or compliance with it may be overridden by any union or other contracts.

    – For counties are mandated to have this done by July 2023. All others in the state have till July 2025.

    – Any LEO with 3 or more citizen complaints for excessive force are to be identified as at risk of excessive force an giving either “training, behavioral interventions,reassignments,or other ‘appropriate responses’ “. lol good luck with that.

    – All LEO agencies must provide a employee assistance program to provide confidential mental health services at no cost to officer. If involved in incident involving serious injury to the officer, an officer involved shooting, or the use of any force resulting in a fatality or serious injury… a visit with said mental heath services is no longer voluntary, but mandatory.

    – Lays out when use of force must be ceased.
    – Spells out that other officers who witness UoF beyond what is spelled out in the law are obligated to intervene to prevent or halt it.
    – Must render basic first aid and request prompt medical assistance to anyone injured in such UoF.
    – Requires all LEO involved in or witnessing UoF incidents to fully document them.

    – Any and all UoF incidents involving any serious injury require a supervisor to respond to the scene and gather and review any recordings of the UoF incident.

    – Bunch of mandatory training and bs sign-offs on said training (that likely already happens but it’s law now)

    – If found guilty of beaching these related laws and serious injury or death occurred it just a misdemeanor, and worst case any cop’s prison sentence for such is capped @ 10 years max and may run concurrent with other convictions.

    https://legiscan.com/MD/text/SB71/id/2359009/Maryland-2021-SB71-Enrolled.pdf

    – MD LEO Bill of Rights revoked in full.

    – Popo at traffic stops absent exigent circ must display proper id to individual(s) stopped, and must provide the their name, officer id#,name of LEO agency they are representing, the reason for the traffic or other stop. Violations of this are cause for administrative dispensary action, but are not to serve as a basis for the exclusion of evidence, under exclusionary rule. Da fuq?

    -Popo can not prohibit OR prevent a citizen from recording an officers actions if the citizen is otherwise acting lawfully and safely (they’ll drive a truck though ‘safely’ as usual I bet).

    – Any popo who has 2 years employment in state and gets their degree from a state school may qualify to get loan repayment assistance job, the minimum budget for this new assistance fund is 1.5 million per year, details to be worked out by existing higher education loan assistance office.

    – Similarly a new po-po scholarship program is being added for existing and prospective officers. basic requirement is if they’re gonna foot the bill one must be employed as popo in the state somewhere for 5 of 8 years following a sponsored degree – or if already an officers serve at least 5 more years in the next 8 after the sponsored degree. Amount will be 50% ride for all tuition and mandatory fees of a resident undergrad.

    – Minimum budget by law will be 6.0 million toward those looking to become officers, and at least 2.5 million for those who already are officers.
    – Awarded are to be awarded in a manor that reflects “ethnic, gender,racial,and geographic diversity”.

    – State and Local LEO immunity is waived… BUT only such that they cap liability 400k per claim or 890k total per incident when found liable for LEO related actions, in the cases of wrongful death it can’t exceed 150% per incident no matter how many claims or deaths are involved. So MD’s max price tag for a life wrongfully taken in MD by any popo is 1.2million.

    – County level police accountability and trial boards…read the details…oh looky something new to corrupt – in both directions, but what else is new, reads like a early retirement\former gov employees “jobs” program though.

    – On the upside provides some chiefs the ability to get rid of some bad apples regardless of what’s may be in some union contracts. On the flip side any forced tests, or dept interrogations etc aren’t discoverable or usable in any criminal proceedings again said person. wtf?

    – Provides in theory whistleblower protection to officers reporting mismanagement, waste of resources,dangers to the public heath or safety, or any violation of law or policy by another officer, or lawfully exercising their constitutional rights.

    – Popo can bring suit arising out of popo’s official duties.
    – Popo are free to engage in any political activity any other state employee can – so long as they are off-duty. 🙄 i’m sure that’ll be equally applied…
    – Popo aren’t allowed to be barred from secondary employment, they may be “reasonably regulated” by their own agencies in this regard however. Doesn’t sound retarded till you think about the one before it working in combo.

    – Records relating to administrative, criminal or internal affairs investigations into an officers misconduct can not be expunged, and are now illegal to destroy by a LEA. What is wasn’t illegal before? :facepalm:

    -New MD politic standards and training commission… of which will oversee and set UoF training and guidelines and who will develop some new police psychology “implicit bias” testing for all new cops everywhere in the state and mandate it’s use in hiring process by every agency. Additionally to be used yearly on every officer in every LEA at least once a year. Oh that sounds like fun… 🙄
    – INA 328 people who are PLR’s may become popo in MD if they’ve have applied for citizenship and that process is still pending. 🙄
    – Every officer is to be hit with mental health eval at least once every two years.
    – Every officer is subject to yearly physical agility eval.
    – Prior use of pot is not a disqualifier for popo cert.
    – all popo who have a UoF incident must file their reports on the matter before the end of their shift, unless disabled as part of the incident.
    – All LEA in the state with a SWAT team must start reporting stats every 6mo about themselves to this commission, namely # of times used, zip where used for each occasion,reason for use,legal authority involved including warrant type etc if any, result of each deployment – # of arrests, property seized, forced entry used, if weapon was discharged, any injuries caused including to domestic animals.

    – ok I’m getting bored now… lots of other reporting requirement to the board and upon request of the public.
    -every LEA must post prominently in a public place the procedures for filing complaints of officer misconduct and how to obtain records relating to admin or criminal invetigations of misconduct relating to their officers.
    -Generally non of this activates to applies to shit prior to july 2022.

    https://legiscan.com/MD/text/HB670/id/2359734/Maryland-2021-HB670-Enrolled.pdf

    That last one seems like a mixed bag as a whole.

    TLDR:
    In combo all 4 bills have the popo and govna upset, and I can see where it could go wrong, I can also see that popo have brought a lot of it upon themselves. SB178 for instance should be standard everywhere – to the extent no-knocks even are allowed to exist.

  26. 2021 April 11 5:35 am
    [28]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

  27. 2021 April 11 6:45 am
    [29]
    justrand permalink

    Meanwhile, as Russia salivates over the prospects of overrunning the Ukraine, and China is counting the days until they subjugate Taiwan, and Iran dreams of nuking Israel…OUR country is being crushed from within.

    This article by VDH is brilliant, and lays out what is happening in very precise terms. Tragically, the reaction of most Americans to the ’10 Radical Rules’ being thrust upon us would be: “Meh”

    https://amgreatness.com/2021/03/31/radical-new-rules-for-post-america/

  28. 2021 April 11 7:58 am
    [30]
    drdog09 permalink

    27,

    The PoPo will comply only because not too will generate a blizzard of paperwork — forever. The olde adage — you can beat the rap but not the ride — now seems will work both ways. Considering the extent of the 3 bills, who the hell did they piss off?

  29. 2021 April 11 8:00 am
    [31]
    drdog09 permalink

    28,

    Would it not be better to spray the perp with beef blood then open up the bear trap and stand back?

  30. 2021 April 11 8:57 am
    [32]
    JimNorCal permalink

    26, anyone listening to even the first 5 or 10 min will find it congenial.
    He calls out the trend to increase gov’t planning and control of the economy because they’ve messed it up so badly they can’t let things proceed organically.

    I’m only a little way in but I like his clarity of vision.

  31. 2021 April 11 10:43 am
    [33]
    gnqanq permalink

    KH & drdog – my neighbor’s son is a CPD officer, already happening. They are at the point they only respond when they have too. My neighbor told me that even the Freeway Patrol wont pull you over unless it is extreme.

    The police realize given the Mayor, Council and leadership, any reaction is going to be under a microscope. Best move is no move.

  32. 2021 April 11 10:56 am
    [34]
    mpt permalink

    The police realize given the Mayor, Council and leadership, any reaction is going to be under a microscope. Best move is no move.

    This is where the corruption of the police begins. It creates an environment where they don’t lift a finger unless their ass is politically covered or (to some) the money under the table makes the risk worth it. This is just the type of environment that attracts people to become police officers who have no business being police officers.

  33. 2021 April 11 12:06 pm
    [35]
    JimNorCal permalink

    26, confirmed. Got to the end and I found it a very clear macro picture of the current economic environment.
    Thanks

  34. 2021 April 11 12:11 pm
    [36]
    bc3b permalink

    Clay Travis on Candace Owens’ Show yesterday discussing the cancel culture in sports:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mzbslz230A

    Eat your heart out Joy Reid. Candace Owens is everything you will never be: beautiful, intelligent, personable, interesting, etc. Sorry Joy, but you are a loser!

  35. 2021 April 11 12:41 pm
    [37]
    JimNorCal permalink

    “Only Vaccinated Persons Can Board Evacuation Vessels to Leave Island Volcano”

    You know, an unvaccinated person is only dangerous if they are infected.
    I get that authorities are publicizing the availability of vaccines and pumping out propaganda to say the vaccines are safe and effective. But the major frenzy puzzles me.
    1) The disease is endemic now. You can always get a jab next season.
    2) The disease kills, like, 0.03% of those who get sick. For this, we need panic attacks?
    3) The vaccines seem mostly safe and effective but we don’t know for absolute sure if that is true.

    The decision to vaccinate or not vaccinate. Why is it not a personal decision? Why the societal investment in crazed frothing frenzy over it?

  36. 2021 April 11 1:11 pm
    [38]
    bc3b permalink

  37. 2021 April 11 3:11 pm
    [39]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

  38. 2021 April 11 4:51 pm
    [40]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

  39. 2021 April 11 5:22 pm
    [41]
    JimNorCal permalink

    I still feel it should be my choice to get vaccinated or not.
    So many lives ruined in CA by an out of control gov’t. Yet our cases and deaths not visibly better than others.

    That said, my wife is pleased to have lucked into a chance to get J&J on Friday. Heard about it, dropped everything, got in line and got the last dose. She’s desperate for a chance to get to China and check on elderly Mom and very sick Dad. Still can’t get a visa. But if visas do become available having vaccination complete will be a huge advantage and might allow her to skip quarantine after arrival.

  40. 2021 April 11 5:24 pm
    [42]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    41
    Should have made the stimmy checks a reward for being vaccinated if we were gonna give them out.

  41. 2021 April 11 5:31 pm
    [43]
    justrand permalink

    I apologize in advance to all the FUCKING IDIOTS of the world. Pete Buttigieg is a FUCKING IDIOT.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/buttigieg-claims-racism-is-physically-built-into-u-s-interstate-system

  42. 2021 April 11 5:39 pm
    [44]
    drdog09 permalink

    Jim,

    Is the visa block on our side or China?

    If its our side consider Mexico to Malaysia to China. Just a suggestion.

  43. 2021 April 11 5:40 pm
    [45]
    drdog09 permalink

  44. 2021 April 11 6:57 pm
    [46]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Thanks dr. It’s definitely on the Chinese side, they cancelled (suspended?) our existing multi year visas. I suppose there might be something on the US side and I’ll keep your advice in mind if we come to a barrier there

  45. 2021 April 11 7:18 pm
    [47]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    The new SEC chairman likes crypto though so I doubt he has an agenda. He probably just thinks there is some scam he wants to investigate, which is common in the space.

  46. 2021 April 11 7:22 pm
    [48]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    TSM to make 3nm chips next year something no one else can even come close to.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pcgamer.com/amp/tsmc-3nm-2021-apple-chips/

    China wants to control the world’s semi’s

  47. 2021 April 11 8:03 pm
    [49]
    JimNorCal permalink

    48, yeah they mentioned that in the interview you linked at 26 LOL

    Well, it’s good times for China. They helped Dems steal the election and now they’re throwing their weight around. Time will tell.

  48. 2021 April 11 8:10 pm
    [50]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    48
    They always have an editors picks section behind paywall of their highest recommended interview of past few months, and the zulauf one was #2.
    It just got moved to youtube (de-paywalled) so i posted it.

  49. 2021 April 11 8:59 pm
    [51]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Be alert for scams …

  50. 2021 April 12 3:19 am
    [52]

    34
    “This is just the type of environment that attracts people to become police officers who have no business being police officers.”

    Yup

    Popo check by day… Paid political activist checks at night a-ok. Sort of what I was getting at with two items in that wall of MD stuff, opens door, as a mater of state law now, to allow fully political officers. Hey you want that extra pay-check from my backers or a piece of that grant money I secured for xyz…better do as wish during the ‘day job’. Already exists to fair degree, but changes opens the doors far and wide now.

    37 – yup, Not to mention… just cause your vac’d doesn’t mean you can’t still spread it (granted at least you will not harboring it internally). The level of insanity\reaction to this is hysterical in the formal sense of the word.

    42 – Don’t give them fucking ideas like that! Trust me though, some asshole in the process definitely probably tried to sell that to them, and someone with a clue informed them just what a cluster fuck of logistical issues and horrible politics it devolve into (even for the most radical pols) at the time that is was passed on. Don’t worry you can bet it’ll be suggested again for the next one, but may not be needed, as they already have all the other institutions they own full stock pushing it anyway.

  51. 2021 April 12 3:53 am
    [53]
    drdog09 permalink

    Here’s a twist, Red on the Outside, Green on the Inside — https://www.bizpacreview.com/2021/04/11/asra-nomani-reveals-how-blm-cofounder-monetized-activism-to-go-on-multi-million-dollar-real-estate-buying-binge-1058488/ — So the hoe turned Che` into KaChing buying real estate. Damn that sounds like a stark raving capitalist to me.

  52. 2021 April 12 4:05 am
    [54]
    drdog09 permalink

    The central banks know what is coming — https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-04-11/hedge-funds-implode-central-banks-get-more-gold-bullion — and it don’t involve BTC.

  53. 2021 April 12 4:11 am
    [55]
    drdog09 permalink

    Coins with expiration dates — https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/chinas-digital-yuan-comes-expiration-date — FedCoin will have that feature and it will assure you remain poor.

  54. 2021 April 12 4:53 am
    [56]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Scathing

    “Congratulations to the Telegraph and Gordon Rayner for revealing that the campaign of mass fear that reduced a once brave nation to trembling terror was deliberately organised to secure obedience to the policy of lockdown,” wrote Forsyth.

    “I have only once before seen anything like it. This was when I was posted to East Germany in 1962. Such a brainwashing tactic was employed to frighten East Berliners into believing that the Berlin Wall was a defensive measure to protect them from tiny West Berlin, and that the Stasi was their guardian. The wall was of course an instrument of enslavement.”

    “I never thought that the government of a country whose uniform I once wore with such pride would sink so low. Those responsible should be identified without delay and ousted from all office over us.”
    https://summit.news/2021/04/08/frederick-forsyth-says-government-has-launched-campaign-of-mass-fear-against-british-public/

  55. 2021 April 12 4:59 am
    [57]
    JimNorCal permalink

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/100-corporate-leaders-meet-to-plot-opposition-to-election-security-measures-report

    More than 100 corporate leaders met this weekend to plot their opposition to voter integrity laws across the United States following false statements made by far-left activists and top politicians like Democrat President Joe Biden.

    CBS News reported that leaders from American Airlines, United Airlines, Levi Strauss & Co., Walmart, ViacomCBS, Ariel Investments, LinkedIn, Twitter, AMC Theaters, and “others” were invited to the leftist event.

    Kenneth Chenault, the former chief executive of American Express Co., and Kenneth Frazier, CEO of Merck & Co., reportedly urged others to join their pressure campaign by signing onto a statement that could be released as soon as this week.

  56. 2021 April 12 5:13 am
    [58]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

  57. 2021 April 12 5:35 am
    [59]
    JimNorCal permalink

    The single family home zoning category is being examined (and in some cases deleted) up and down the left coast including Vancouver, SF, LA, Berkeley, Seattle and San Jose. Very popular policy for woke Democrats.
    I think the plan is to densify, then take away cars to solve global warming.

    So your existing single family home will soar in value?
    Not so fast. Your neighbor can add in law units or make his property a fourplex. If a developer can buy 4 adjoining lots they can erect a 5 story apartment building. No one will buy your single family home, next door to a tower.

  58. 2021 April 12 5:37 am
    [60]

    48 – Which is why they would prefer to take TW intact (not that TSMC doesn’t have two FAB’s on the mainland that CN can just take anytime they want). Not surprisingly TSMC has been starting to diversify to some degree at least in some of it’s fab locations outside of TW, including Singapore and here in US, in WA and a 5nm fab already going up in AZ, with reports that a 3nm follow on fab is under discussion, unclear if it would be an expansion in AZ or built elsewhere. But yeah the lead 3nm fab is in shiny new fab TW and sampling level production is expect to start later this year.

    Samsung also has 3nm in fab in SK (with a second 3nm finishing up construction) set to start sample level production q1|q2 2022 and full production level in q3|q4 2022. They are also deep into planning a 3nm fab here in the US, but they have not broke ground, reportedly most likely in the land they own in Austin TX. They apparently already started the permitting process, but rumor is they’re still technically shopping around with offers in AZ and NY. Unclear if this is just negotiating tactics with Austin\TX, or the power outage really did spook the shit out of them leading them to take a second look elsewhere. Me thinks it’s more for leverage on the 1.1Billion in tax breaks they want over 20 years (100% abatement) that the locals had a wtf? moment over. In fairness what was effectively a month long disruption for their existing facilities there would have me taking a second pass at my other offers as well or at least trying to leverage it. 😉

    I do think you’re right and I would say TSMC has the “lead” since they’re already permitting out their 2nm fab in TW, but by the same token that fab will use GAA process, where as samsung is already there today with their 3nm. “nm” when you get below 7’ish isn’t the whole story, least not when it comes to actual chips, though that’s not to say die shrinks aren’t important\significant, it’s just not always everything – depending on what you’re building.

    In contrast you got players like Intel (granted not till their announcement 2 weeks ago were they even interested in the contracting fab business), who just finally seemed to get their cluster fuck situation with in-house 7nm production sorted (years late). While 5nm for them may be in the wings (along with a huge new investment in a fresh fab in AZ announced a few weeks ago), for now they’re contracting out most if not all of there shorter term 5nm and 3nm needs too…… TSMC because they’re so far behind in playing catch up in getting the fab process right. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

    It seems the new leadership is at least interested it trying to right the ship, I hope they have enough time too, lord knows they can make good designs, they need to be able to get back to also being able to be the ones that can fab them.

    This guy sort of sums my views on intel written earlier this year before their announcements a few weeks ago. https://stratechery.com/2021/intel-problems/ Though I don’t really think a true breakup is needed as was a suggestion in the piece, though I suspect with they way they have gone “option two” might be in play given the amount of money be thrown around of late.

    BTW I would not be surprised if there was some DoD involvement\incentives\alt-disincentives with some of these decisions to get some of these fabs back here state side, I know it was push starting in 2018 to address some of critical supply chain issues just related to sourcing for weapon system components and basic parts and even the public versions of a report I read a couple years ago was scary, lord only knows what the non-public version must have said.

    -Rant off.

  59. 2021 April 12 5:47 am
    [61]
    PresidentRonaldPaul permalink

    UBS had 4100 s&p year end target. We just hit that friday. Economy has been ripping q1&q2 just as i expected/was saying three months ago on this forum.

  60. 2021 April 12 6:17 am
    [62]
    justrand permalink

    apparently 100 CEOs and ex-CEOs got together over the weekend with BLM to chart ways to RESIST voter integrity.

    They are aligning AGAINST America to cement the Democrats in power…because the Democrats will REQARD them.

    Meanwhile, “Joe Biden” (who no longer actually exists) is working to show those CEOs what the Democrats do when they have ALL the power

    https://pjmedia.com/columns/tyler-o-neil/2021/04/10/can-we-please-stop-pretending-joe-biden-is-a-moderate-now-n1438973

  61. 2021 April 12 6:25 am
    [63]
    justrand permalink

    the Jews have been to the brink of annihilation…they don’t wanna go back

    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/04/israel-conducts-successful-cyber-attack-on-iranian-nuclear-facility.php

  62. 2021 April 12 8:10 am
    [65]
    Eph permalink

    64 DR,

    Like wearing masks, these vaccines will turn out to be a hoax too.

  63. 2021 April 12 9:09 am
    [66]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Comparing alternatives to WhatsApp in terms of privacy. WhatsApp leaks personal info to FaceBook.
    https://protonmail.com/blog/whatsapp-alternatives/

  64. 2021 April 12 9:15 am
    [67]
    JimNorCal permalink

    64 there is widespread speculation that a side effect of mRNA vaccines will be a powerful reaction by your body to WuFlu variants.

  65. 2021 April 12 9:21 am
    [68]
    JimNorCal permalink

    My pro-BLM cousin in Minnesota is still blaming … the police, of course.
    I hope she at least owns a gun. Take some with her when they rampage through her neighborhood.

    “The shooting happened about 5 blocks from my house, I came upon it after coming home from seeing Mom.
    Helicopters over the house most of the night.
    Looting also a short distance from the house.

    Calm so far today, but seeing we are in the middle of the Chauvin trial for murdering George Floyd, it’s beyond my understanding why a cop would shoot a young black man in the back while he was walking away from him and then start lobbing tear gas at an apartment filled with families and children.”

  66. 2021 April 12 12:07 pm
    [69]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Depressing and pessimistic but probably not wrong.

    “I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about boycotting woke companies. Soon enough they’re going to be boycotting us.
    That’s one of the points of a social credit score.”

  67. 2021 April 12 12:20 pm
    [70]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Another Covid voice silenced by MSM.
    A snip below but the article gives more of an update of more recent stuff.

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/eminent-doc-media-censored-covid-19-early-treatment-options-that-could-have-reduced-fatalities-by-85
    Dr. Peter McCullough, MD is an internist and cardiologist, along with being a professor of medicine at Texas A&M University Health Sciences Center. He is distinguished as the most published person in history in his field and an editor of two major medical journals.

    “The interesting thing was, (that while) there were 50,000 papers in the peer-reviewed literature on COVID, not a single one told the doctor how to treat it,” he said. “When does that happen? I was absolutely stunned! And when [my] paper was published … it became … the most cited paper in basically all of medicine at that time the world.”

    With the help of his daughter, Dr. McCullough recorded a YouTube video incorporating four slides from the “peer-reviewed paper published in one of the best medical journals in the world” discussing early treatments for COVID-19. The video quickly “went absolutely viral. And within about a week YouTube said ‘you violated the terms of the community’” and they pulled it down.

  68. 2021 April 12 12:33 pm
    [71]
    JimNorCal permalink

    This is not wrong, either. In my opinion.

    “The unwillingness of the GOP to use Ashli Babbitt as a martyr to the cause is why they’re Failure Theater and not worth rallying around. Look at how the donks regard a fat, drug and people abusing slob criminal [George Floyd]; and we can’t find anyone to even mention her.”

  69. 2021 April 12 12:40 pm
    [72]
    JimNorCal permalink

    Seems like ETH is comfortably staying above $2100.
    And BTC is doggedly pulling above 60,000 … I’m guessing that 60K will be in the rear view mirror permanently. But ya never know.

  70. 2021 April 12 6:09 pm
    [73]

    69 – Yup that is the next step.
    71 – Well…that quote is comes off as mostly.. not wrong, but some have\did the difference is apparently they don’t take it far enough to riots, and even if they did the MSM ain’t gonna cover, let alone parrot it like they will when it fits their own desired narrative. Also let’s forget rioting over wrongful deaths or outcomes is only permitted for approved narratives, otherwise if you’re just remotely in the same place they’ll find something, anything.. to prosecute you – See jan 6th fallout.

    I’d prefer targeted ass ass in ations as a better approach anyway at this point.

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